tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-82804208763873555202024-03-17T23:03:15.449-04:00BaseballotA blog for people who are both political junkies and baseball nerds.Unknownnoreply@blogger.comBlogger212125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8280420876387355520.post-5928183021300691242018-06-22T17:38:00.002-04:002018-06-22T17:46:23.600-04:00Looking Back on Seven Years of BaseballotIsn't it weird how, when people say they have "some personal news," they really mean they have some professional news? Anyway, I have some personal and/or professional news that you may have already seen me announce <a href="https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/1008738485438767104" target="_blank">on Twitter</a>: I'm joining FiveThirtyEight (where I've been freelancing since last year) full-time as its new elections writer. I've read FiveThirtyEight almost since back when Nate Silver was still <a href="http://nymag.com/news/features/51170/" target="_blank">Poblano</a>, and <a href="http://baseballot.blogspot.com/2012/10/in-defense-of-nate-silver.html" target="_blank">much</a> of my <a href="http://baseballot.blogspot.com/2012/02/mitt-romneys-electability-problem.html" target="_blank">own</a> <a href="http://baseballot.blogspot.com/2013/12/nate-silvering-jack-morriss-hall-of.html" target="_blank">writing</a> was informed and inspired by his revolutionary strain of political data journalism. At the same time, I struck up a <a href="https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/171793421151895552" target="_blank">Twitter friendship</a> with Nate's right-hand man, Micah Cohen, who gave Baseballot its first readership outside my family by including some of my posts in FiveThirtyEight's weekly "<a href="https://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/01/16/reads-reactions-17/" target="_blank">Reads and Reactions</a>" feature. To work with them is a dream come true.<br />
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But it also means changes, one of which is that you're probably going to see a lot fewer posts here on Baseballot. This isn't <i>goodbye</i>, exactly (for one thing, I hope that you'll keep <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/contributors/nathaniel-rakich/" target="_blank">reading me</a> over at FiveThirtyEight); this isn't some big pronouncement that this is going to be the FINAL BASEBALLOT POST EVER!!, or even that the blog is going dormant for a while. It's just a public acknowledgment that, yeah, updates are going to be infrequent from here on out because I have a real job now and my new bosses are going to want to publish most of what I tend to write. Occasionally there may be a musing missive in this space about an obscure election, or a post that's not about politics or baseball at all. This blog has been a big part of my life for the last seven (!) years, and I'm not quite ready to give it up for good. But things are going to get quieter around here.<br />
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<a href="https://mlb.nbcsports.com/2011/03/30/how-to-use-twitter-properly-to-enhance-your-baseball-experience/" target="_blank">Inspired by one of my favorite writers</a>, I <a href="http://baseballot.blogspot.com/2011/12/post-1-first-post.html" target="_blank">started this blog</a> in 2011 because my first couple years of working in a real-world office were not as stimulating as I had hoped. I decided to scratch my writing itch first as a hobby. Eventually, it got more serious: I developed <a href="https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/420374385212411905" target="_blank">quasi-professional relationships</a> on Twitter, my writing and research got stronger, and my pageviews increased. In 2015, I gained the confidence to start freelance-writing online full-time, and, with the exposure that came from that volume, my work caught the eye of my wonderful now-former colleagues at <a href="https://www.insideelections.com" target="_blank">Inside Elections</a> and ultimately FiveThirtyEight. It all started with this blog and those of you who read it along the way. <br />
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To other aspiring writers/bloggers/reporters/pundits, allow me to be that writer who inspires <i>you</i> to join the fray: start a blog, pitch articles to Newsweek on the weekends, start a (smart, respectful) conversation on Twitter. Patience and hard work can pay off. To everyone else: thanks for reading Baseballot, and thank you for all the support over the years. I couldn't have done it without your encouragement, your sharing of my articles, and the community you created where I finally felt at home.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8280420876387355520.post-87988567578682616572018-05-20T11:22:00.000-04:002018-05-20T11:22:07.868-04:00Nine Years of Congressional Baseball Game StatsThis year's Congressional Baseball Game—the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Congressional_Baseball_Game#Game_results" target="_blank">84th iteration</a> of the <a href="https://www.congressionalbaseball.org" target="_blank">renowned partisan pastime</a>—is less than a month away (specifically, on June 14—<a href="https://www.mlb.com/nationals/tickets/congressional" target="_blank">buy a ticket</a>, it's for a good cause!), so it's time to update my database of statistics for the annual charity game. Yes, that's right—I'm so obsessed with numbers that I have some that show how good or bad members of Congress are at baseball.<br />
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<a href="http://tinyurl.com/cbgstats" target="_blank">This Google spreadsheet</a> is based on the leaderboards page over at FanGraphs. It has not only the "Standard" stats like hits and RBI, but also FanGraphs's "Advanced" and "Value" stats, calculated the exact same way the sabermetric site defines them. If you want to know Tim Ryan's wRC+ or Rand Paul's WAR, this is the place to go. The spreadsheet goes back through the 2009 Congressional Baseball Game, thanks to box scores generously provided to me by the game's official scorers. It's not comprehensive—for instance, there are no batted-ball stats, and fielding is too hard to measure in a game whose defensive alignments change more often than the softball match at your latest family reunion—but it's enough to show us who's just playing for fun and who the truly feared players should be on June 14.<br />
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<iframe src="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/e/2PACX-1vTvhi2uRS3G4RCFcCmuvYrI77uqWjdS5xg9xpjpi1eG11a9ONkmcwYarCEwqKdv1WKMTYGtDWYOZTZT/pubhtml?widget=true&headers=false" height=600 width=500></iframe><br />
<br />
The highlights: Cedric Richmond, Congress's <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/o/ohtansh01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Shohei Ohtani</a></strong>, is now up to 2.3 WAR, eight times higher than anyone else's total. Seven of the game's nine best players by WAR are Democrats. And you'll notice a lot of lineup fixtures are leaving Congress after this year: the Democrats' Jared Polis, the Republicans' Jeff Flake, Tom Rooney, Ryan Costello, and Bill Shuster. (And Democrats' Joe Donnelly may very well lose his re-election bid.) By this time next year, the leaderboards could look very different: it's possible that John Shimkus, Chris Murphy, and Kevin Brady will be the only pre-2009 players left.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8280420876387355520.post-77684050933372298212018-04-30T23:52:00.003-04:002018-05-01T00:10:23.585-04:00Free-Agent Fantasy Baseball: 2018Given that most MLB free agents this winter signed about two months later than they usually do, it's fitting that my annual roundup of the best all-free-agent team also drops about two months later than usual.<br />
<br />
As a refresher for those of you new around here, every offseason, I comb through that year's free-agent class and assemble the best possible team from it—while working through the <a href="http://baseballot.blogspot.com/2015/11/an-exercise-in-free-agency.html" target="_blank">same constraints</a> that real teams deal with, like a budget. So far, I have yet to find much success with this exercise (<a href="http://baseballot.blogspot.com/2017/03/free-agent-fantasy-baseball-2017.html" target="_blank">last year's team</a> amassed just 17.0 fWAR, which would theoretically be good only for a 65–97 record), probably reflecting the fact that free agency is a <a href="http://www.startribune.com/why-is-baseball-free-agent-market-slow-teams-might-be-wising-up/468628223/" target="_blank">really bad way to build a team</a>. I have abiding hope, however, that this year, with its multitude of team-friendly contracts, might be different.<br />
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To build the <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1LK5Z_I8WPByXlPvz7_IWqGA5N_eszwT4bPg2tjkSWso/edit#gid=373267061" target="_blank">team below</a>, I went into the winter carrying over my payroll obligations from last year's all-free-agent team, which amounted to $103,083,333 for the nine players in black below. My goal, like most teams' nowadays, was to stay below the $197 million luxury tax cap for 2018, so that meant I had $93,916,667 to spend on two outfielders, a middle infielder, a DH, a backup catcher, a backup outfielder, three or four starting pitchers, and a whole bullpen. The 16 players in blue are who I settled on:<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-xGEVN47tbDU/WuflOts0zyI/AAAAAAAAHmA/S7CZ6zMqBCYjuUneY3LcjZceHHubV_3gQCLcBGAs/s1600/2018%2BSpinners.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-xGEVN47tbDU/WuflOts0zyI/AAAAAAAAHmA/S7CZ6zMqBCYjuUneY3LcjZceHHubV_3gQCLcBGAs/s1600/2018%2BSpinners.png" data-original-width="934" data-original-height="843" width="450"/></a></div><br />
Given that he only cost a $20 million posting fee and a nominal signing bonus, <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/o/ohtansh01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Shohei Ohtani</a></strong> was an easy call, of course. Nippon Professional Baseball is a good source for free-agent bargains in general, though, one I mined for <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mikolmi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Miles Mikolas</a></strong> and <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hiranyo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Yoshihisa Hirano</a></strong> as well. <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/sabatc.01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">CC Sabathia</a></strong> and <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/garcija02.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Jaime García</a></strong> both signed for below-market $10 million, one-year deals. Plenty of talented bullpenners were also available for less than $5 million a year each, including ex-closers <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hernada01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">David Hernández</a></strong> and <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rondohe01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Héctor Rondón</a></strong>.<br />
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Pretty much my entire offense was plucked from the bargain bin late in the winter. <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/grandcu01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Curtis Granderson</a></strong> was available for $5 million for one year despite averaging 3.5 fWAR over the last three years. <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/frazito01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Todd Frazier</a></strong>'s two-year, $17 million deal was so good that I had to get creative, bumping incumbent third baseman <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/headlch01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Chase Headley</a></strong> to his original major-league position, left field. Indeed, front offices had so much patience to smoke out free agents this offseason that I blinked before many of the shrewder GMs did. Afraid of being the last one at the dance without a second baseman or DH, I signed <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/dudalu01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Lucas Duda</a></strong> (one year, $3.5 million) and <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kendrho01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Howie Kendrick</a></strong> (one year, $3 million) only to see even more cost-efficient deals for better players (<strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/moustmi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Mike Moustakas</a></strong>, <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/walkene01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Neil Walker</a></strong>) materialize later.<br />
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Ah well; a team-builder can hardly complain. I was able to construct a viable major-league roster on a final payroll that totaled just $194,593,333 ($209,393,333 in the unlikely event that all contract incentives are met). Now let's just hope they win more than 65 games.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8280420876387355520.post-78631824541545972462018-03-30T12:18:00.001-04:002018-03-30T12:18:21.416-04:00Predicting the 2018 Season—National LeagueThe 2018 baseball season is underway, and, as is my annual tradition, I failed to finish writing up my MLB predictions in time for the first pitch of the season. Better late than never, today I bring you my prognostications for the National League. For those new around here, I don't do season previews in the usual sense—no doubt you've already read a zillion of those from better analysts than I. What I do do is project the exact win-loss records of each team and pair them with a handful of way-too-specific predictions. (You can see what I mean in my <a href="http://baseballot.blogspot.com/2018/03/predicting-2018-seasonamerican-league.html" target="_blank">American League predictions</a>, issued earlier this week.) Warning: as you'll see <a href="http://baseballot.blogspot.com/2018/03/what-i-didnt-expect-in-baseball-in-2017.html" target="_blank">at the end of the season</a>, these predictions are for entertainment only.<br />
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To the line!<br />
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<h3>NL East</h3><br />
<b>1. Washington Nationals (97–65, 2nd playoff seed)</b> <br />
<ul><li>The only person who has posted an 11-WAR season in my lifetime is <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bondsba01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Barry Bonds</a></strong>. Now, in his walk year, <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/harpebr03.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Bryce Harper</a></strong> will do it too. He will deliver a stupid .370/.500/.700 line with 40 home runs and 15 DRS. After winning his second unanimous MVP award, he will sign a 12-year, $396 million contract (with four opt-outs) to return to Washington.</li>
<li><strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gonzagi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Gio González</a></strong> and <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/roarkta01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Tanner Roark</a></strong> will post identical 3.76 ERAs.</li>
<li>Comeback Player of the Year <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=eatonad02,eatonad01&search=Adam+Eaton&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Adam Eaton</a></strong> will lead the league in triples; with Harper batting behind him, he'll also score 130 runs.</li>
<li>On the less rosy side, <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=zimmery01,zimmer004rya&search=Ryan+Zimmerman&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Ryan Zimmerman</a></strong>'s 2017 home-run and RBI totals will be cut in half, and <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=taylomi02,taylomi01&search=Michael+Taylor&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Michael Taylor</a></strong>'s .280 OBP will force the Nats to trade for outfield help.</li>
<li>Up 1–0 in the NLDS, the Nats will invite President Trump to come throw out the first pitch. In classic October fashion, they will then lose the next three games of the series, inspiring "the curse of the Donald." It will be the <a href="http://baseballot.blogspot.com/2016/04/every-presidential-first-pitch-ever.html" target="_blank">only first pitch he throws</a> during his presidency.</li>
</ul><br />
<b>2. New York Mets (81–81)</b> <br />
<ul><li>The Mets will live and die by that rotation, so let's get it out of the way: <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/syndeno01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Noah Syndergaard</a></strong> and <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/degroja01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Jacob deGrom</a></strong> will combine for 300 innings of sub-3.00 ball. <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/harvema01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Matt Harvey</a></strong> and <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/matzst01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Steven Matz</a></strong> will combine for 100 innings of super-5.00 ball before they earn their release and hit the DL, respectively.</li>
<li><strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/callami01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Mickey Callaway</a></strong> will win Manager of the Year for navigating no fewer than three tabloid scandals in the clubhouse.</li>
</ul><br />
<b>3. Philadelphia Phillies (77–85)</b> <br />
<ul><li>A low BABIP meant <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hoskirh01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Rhys Hoskins</a></strong> is even better than he appeared to be in 2017. Look for a .400 OBP and the most homers in the National League.</li>
<li><strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/francma02.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Maikel Franco</a></strong> will again have negative value, spelling the end of his tenure in Philadelphia.</li>
<li>Rookie of the Year <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=kinger000sco&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Scott Kingery</a></strong>'s 4.0 WAR will mean that, at the going rate for wins, he will have already been worth his <a href="http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/22909867/philadelphia-phillies-sign-top-prospect-scott-kingery-six-year-contract" target="_blank">$24 million contract extension</a> after one year in the majors.</li>
<li><strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/velasvi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Vince Velasquez</a></strong> will be able to boast a strikeout rate of 28%. Whether that will mean he gets outs is anybody's guess.</li>
</ul><br />
<b>4. Atlanta Braves (73–89)</b> <br />
<ul><li><strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=acuna-002ron&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Ronald Acuña</a></strong> will be solid, but the manipulation of his service time will keep him from winning Rookie of the Year.</li>
<li><strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/swansda01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Dansby Swanson</a></strong> will give the 2018 Braves what they thought they would get out of him in 2017.</li>
</ul><br />
<b>5. Miami Marlins (65–97)</b> <br />
<ul><li><strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=urenajo01,urena-005jos&search=Jose+Urena&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">José Ureña</a></strong>'s ERA will rise by more than a run. Their best pitcher, <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/conlead01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Adam Conley</a></strong>, will languish in the minors until he is called up in mid-summer. He'll break a streak of 20 consecutive Marlins games without a quality start.</li>
<li><strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/barraky01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Kyle Barraclough</a></strong> will finish the season with 20 saves—an astounding total on a team so bad.</li>
<li>With the midseason trades of <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/pradoma01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Martín Prado</a></strong>, <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/castrst01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Starlin Castro</a></strong>, <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/chenwe02.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Wei-Yin Chen</a></strong>, and <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/z/zieglbr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Brad Ziegler</a></strong>, <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/jeterde01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Derek Jeter</a></strong> will be the highest-paid player on the Marlins.</li>
<li>With the midseason trade of <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/realmjt01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">JT Realmuto</a></strong>, <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/brinsle01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Lewis Brinson</a></strong> will lead the team in WAR.</li>
<li>Miami will average fewer than 10,000 fans per game.</li>
</ul><br />
<h3>NL Central</h3><br />
<b>1. Chicago Cubs (98–64, 1st playoff seed)</b> <br />
<ul><li><strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/darviyu01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Yu Darvish</a></strong> will stop tipping his pitches, and he'll pair a 2.90 ERA with 250 strikeouts.</li>
<li>After pitching in all seven games of the 2017 World Series, <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/morrobr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Brandon Morrow</a></strong> will break down after just 30 innings of work.</li>
<li><strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/chatwty01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Tyler Chatwood</a></strong>'s 2018 ERA will be closer to his 2017 mark at home (6.01) than on the road (3.49).</li>
<li><strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/schwaky01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Kyle Schwarber</a></strong> will improve to .240/.340/.500, and <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/heywaja01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Jason Heyward</a></strong> will claw his way back to a 100 OPS+.</li>
<li><strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bryankr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Kris Bryant</a></strong> will lead the NL in RBIs.</li>
</ul><br />
<b>2. Saint Louis Cardinals (91–71, 1st Wild Card)</b> <br />
<ul><li><strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/phamth01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Tommy Pham</a></strong> and <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/dejonpa01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Paul DeJong</a></strong> will both fall sharply back down to earth. They will decline by a combined 4.0 WAR—which, luckily for the Cardinals, will be exactly the value that <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/o/ozunama01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Marcell Ozuna</a></strong> brings to the team from Miami.</li>
<li>The St. Louis rotation will improbably be one of the league's best. <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wainwad01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Adam Wainwright</a></strong> and <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wachami01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Michael Wacha</a></strong> recapture (some of) their past magic, <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mikolmi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Miles Mikolas</a></strong> will show up on the WHIP leaderboard, and <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/flaheja01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Jack Flaherty</a></strong> will win all 10 of the games he starts. But most of all...</li>
<li><strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/weavelu01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Luke Weaver</a></strong> will be a leading Cy Young candidate before reaching his innings limit and getting shut down for the year. After <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=martica04,martica03,martica02,martin019car&search=Carlos+Martinez&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Carlos Martínez</a></strong> gives up five earned runs and is tagged as the losing pitcher in the Wild Card game, the <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/strasst01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Stephen Strasburg</a></strong> shutdown scandal will seem tame in comparison.</li>
</ul><br />
<b>3. Milwaukee Brewers (81–81)</b> <br />
<ul><li>The Brewers' well-rounded outfield will combine for 70 home runs and 70 stolen bases.</li>
<li><strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=braunry02,braunry01&search=Ryan+Braun&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Ryan Braun</a></strong> will scuffle both offensively and defensively at first base, and the experiment will end by June. A trade for rotation help will alleviate the outfield logjam. (Meanwhile, <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/broxtke01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Keon Broxton</a></strong> will be OPSing .900 in AAA.)</li>
<li>No one expects <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/anderch01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Chase Anderson</a></strong> to replicate his 2.74 ERA, but a 3.50 ERA is reasonable.</li>
</ul><br />
<b>4. Pittsburgh Pirates (73–89)</b> <br />
<ul><li><strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/taillja01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Jameson Taillon</a></strong> will steal the NL Cy Young Award from a wide-open field.</li>
<li><strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/moranco01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Colin Moran</a></strong> will quietly hit .290 with 20 home runs and 70 RBIs.</li>
</ul><br />
<b>5. Cincinnati Reds (69–93)</b> <br />
<ul><li>For the second consecutive year, <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/vottojo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Joey Votto</a></strong> will finish second in MVP voting. Sometime in the 2030s, a columnist will use that to argue that he was never considered great enough by his contemporaries to join the Hall of Fame.</li>
<li>An abnormally high BABIP will gift <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=hamilbi02,hamilbi01&search=Billy+Hamilton&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Billy Hamilton</a></strong> with a .270 average and a career-high OBP, enabling him to steal 80 bases in 2018.</li>
<li><strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=castilu02,castilu01,castil018lui,castil015lui,castil014lui,castil017lui&search=Luis+Castillo&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Luis Castillo</a></strong> will experience growing pains, but he'll still strike out 200 batters and go to the All-Star Game.</li>
</ul><br />
<h3>NL West</h3><br />
<b>1. Los Angeles Dodgers (96–66, 3rd playoff seed)</b> <br />
<ul><li>In a National League with three evenly matched top teams, the fact that the Dodgers have the league's best rotation and best bullpen will be their secret weapon in securing a second straight pennant.</li>
<li>Some reversion to the mean is in order in Chávez Ravine. <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/tayloch03.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Chris Taylor</a></strong> will never again be the player he was last year, and expect <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bellico01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Cody Bellinger</a></strong> to settle in at .260 with 25 home runs.</li>
<li><strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kershcl01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Clayton Kershaw</a></strong> will again miss seven starts in August with a "bad back," but a paparazzo's surreptitious shot of him on the golf course will give rise to conspiracy theories that the Dodgers are just trying to keep him fresh for October. It will work: he'll lead the NL in ERA and K/BB ratio and win NLCS MVP honors against the Cubs.</li>
</ul><br />
<b>2. Arizona Diamondbacks (90–72, 2nd Wild Card)</b> <br />
<ul><li>NL strikeout leader <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rayro02.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Robbie Ray</a></strong> will also finish in the top three in Cy Young voting.</li>
<li>Thanks to progressive usage patterns (including several multi-inning appearances), <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bradlar01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Archie Bradley</a></strong> will be the most valuable reliever in baseball.</li>
<li>Arizona will have three four-win players: <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/goldspa01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Paul Goldschmidt</a></strong>, <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/polloaj01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">AJ Pollock</a></strong>, and <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/souzast01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Steven Souza</a></strong>.</li>
</ul><br />
<b>3. Colorado Rockies (84–78)</b> <br />
<ul><li>The youth movement will breathe life into the Rockies offense. <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/parrage01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Gerardo Parra</a></strong>, <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=gonzaca01,gonzal014car,gonzal026car&search=Carlos+Gonzalez&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Carlos González</a></strong>, and <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/desmoia01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Ian Desmond</a></strong> will each lose their jobs to <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/dahlda01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">David Dahl</a></strong>, <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/tapiara01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Raimel Tapia</a></strong>, and <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mcmahry01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Ryan McMahon</a></strong>, all of whom will provide above-average OPSes.</li>
<li><strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/arenano01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Nolan Arenado</a></strong> will flirt with the single-season doubles record of 67.</li>
<li>The Rockies' fancy new bullpen signings (<strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/daviswa01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Wade Davis</a></strong>, <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mcgeeja01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Jake McGee</a></strong>, and <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/shawbr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Bryan Shaw</a></strong>) will provide a grossly inefficient $10-million-per-WAR return on investment.</li>
</ul><br />
<b>4. San Francisco Giants (71–91)</b> <br />
<ul><li><strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/longoev01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Evan Longoria</a></strong> and <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mccutan01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Andrew McCutchen</a></strong> will lift the Giants offense from worst in baseball to merely one of the top five worst. Both will have less valuable seasons in 2018 than they did in 2017. <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/jacksau01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Austin Jackson</a></strong> will be straight-up replacement level.</li>
<li><strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/beltbr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Brandon Belt</a></strong> will hit 20 home runs for the first time.</li>
<li>Starting pitchers not named <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bumgama01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Madison Bumgarner</a></strong>, <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cuetojo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Johnny Cueto</a></strong>, or <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/samarje01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Jeff Samardzija</a></strong> will combine to allow 300+ runs in 600 innings.</li>
<li>Speaking of Cueto and Samardzija, expect the latter to rebound more than the former, thanks to a far luckier HR/FB ratio.</li>
<li><strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/strichu01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Hunter Strickland</a></strong> will have the least valuable super-96-mile-per-hour fastball in baseball, and it will drive his ERA up to 4.40. <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/watsoto01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Tony Watson</a></strong> will spend most of the season as closer; <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/melanma01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Mark Melancon</a></strong> won't pitch an inning.</li>
</ul><br />
<b>5. San Diego Padres (64–98)</b> <br />
<ul><li><strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/margoma01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Manuel Margot</a></strong> will double his stolen-base total, but his home-run total will halve.</li>
<li><strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=,myerswi01&search=Wil+Myers&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Wil Myers</a></strong> will tout around a 120 OPS+, but he will be the league's worst defensive outfielder, bringing his WAR down to 0.0.</li>
<li>The Padres will rank 30th in baseball in OBP and runs scored.</li>
</ul>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8280420876387355520.post-11364720530344829962018-03-28T13:21:00.002-04:002018-03-28T13:21:47.197-04:00Predicting the 2018 Season—American LeagueWith Game 7 of the World Series taking place on November 1 and Opening Day shutting down schools and businesses for a national day of celebration this Thursday, we've had one of our shortest—and <a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-07/baseball-s-free-agent-market-is-way-down-this-year" target="_blank">weirdest</a>—offseasons ever. That's left me scrambling to put out in time the surest sign of spring here at Baseballot: my annual MLB predictions. <br />
<br />
For those of you new around here, I do season previews a little bit differently from everyone else. Instead of just ranking the teams in projected order of finish, I predict the exact win-loss records of each team. Instead of surveying each team's strengths and weaknesses, I make a handful of way-too-specific predictions that sum up my expectations for that team's season in a nutshell. Then, the really fun part comes at the end of the year, when I <a href="http://baseballot.blogspot.com/2018/03/what-i-didnt-expect-in-baseball-in-2017.html" target="_blank">look back on my predictions</a>, highlighting which ones improbably came true—and which ones look ridiculous in hindsight.<br />
<br />
First up this year: the American League.<br />
<br />
<h3>AL East</h3><br />
<b>1. New York Yankees (92–70, 3rd playoff seed)</b> <br />
<ul><li><strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/judgeaa01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Aaron Judge</a></strong> will hit "only" 35 home runs—but it will still be enough to lead the league, as Major League Baseball secretly replaces the baseball yet again with a less juiced version.</li>
<li>Together, Judge and <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/stantmi03.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Giancarlo Stanton</a></strong> will be worth the same 8.2 WAR that Judge alone was worth last year—in other words, the Yankees will not get any better post-Stanton-trade.</li>
<li>Yankees pitching will severely regress. <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/grayso01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Sonny Gray</a></strong> will sputter to a 4.80 ERA, <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/montgjo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Jordan Montgomery</a></strong> and <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/sabatc.01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">CC Sabathia</a></strong> will both have ERAs below league average, and <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/greench03.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Chad Green</a></strong> and <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kahnlto01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Tommy Kahnle</a></strong> will revert to the mean.</li>
</ul><br />
<b>2. Boston Red Sox (91–71, 1st Wild Card)</b> <br />
<ul><li><strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/martijd02.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">JD Martínez</a></strong> will injure himself in April and miss a majority of the season, and the Red Sox will <i>still</i> finish in the top five in the American League in home runs. <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bettsmo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Mookie Betts</a></strong>, <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/beninan01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Andrew Benintendi</a></strong>, and <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/deverra01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Rafael Devers</a></strong> will all crack the list of top 30 home-run hitters in the Junior Circuit.</li>
<li><strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/smithca02.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Carson Smith</a></strong> will lead the AL in strikeout-to-walk ratio and WHIP.</li>
<li><strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/priceda01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">David Price</a></strong> will bounce back; <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/ramirha01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Hanley Ramírez</a></strong> will not.</li>
<li>It will be a blessing in disguise for Boston that they missed out on that one-game playoff with New York on the final day of the season. <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/salech01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Chris Sale</a></strong> will twirl a one-hit shutout in the Wild Card game, to be followed up (finally!) by his first Cy Young Award a month later.</li>
</ul><br />
<b>3. Tampa Bay Rays (81–81)</b> <br />
<ul><li>Not a lot of runs will be scored at the Trop this season. The Rays will pair the division's best pitching with its worst offense.</li>
<li>With the return of <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/archech01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Chris Archer</a></strong> to a 3.00 ERA, a step forward by <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/snellbl01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Blake Snell</a></strong>, and a nice 3.0-WAR bounceback by <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/e/eovalna01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Nathan Eovaldi</a></strong>, the Rays will have one of the league's better rotations. Of course, it won't hurt that they will cut out its weakest fifth. Speaking of which...</li>
<li>The Rays' experiment of having a bullpen day instead of a fifth starter will be a qualified success, lasting throughout the season and giving them a winning record in those games.</li>
</ul><br />
<b>4. Toronto Blue Jays (77–85)</b> <br />
<ul><li>Everyone in the Blue Jays' pedestrian rotation will post ERAs between 3.80 and 4.20. As a group, they'll have an ERA+ of 100.</li>
<li><strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/smoakju01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Justin Smoak</a></strong> won't even hit 20 home runs this time around.</li>
<li>For about two weeks in September, <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=guerre002vla;utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Vladimir Guerrero Jr.</a></strong> will be the most exciting player in baseball.</li>
</ul><br />
<b>5. Baltimore Orioles (72–90)</b> <br />
<ul><li>In the blockbuster trade of the deadline, <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/machama01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Manny Machado</a></strong> will be shipped off to the Cardinals for some fishing wire and a small patch of brown liquid. The league change will cost Machado, who will be leading the AL in WAR at the trade, an MVP award.</li>
<li>Neither <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/davisch02.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Chris Davis</a></strong> nor <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/trumbma01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Mark Trumbo</a></strong> will be any better in 2018 than in 2017.</li>
<li><strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/beckhti01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Tim Beckham</a></strong> and <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mancitr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Trey Mancini</a></strong> will both hit under .250.</li>
<li><strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cashnan01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Andrew Cashner</a></strong>'s ERA (5.50) will be higher than his strikeout rate per nine innings (5.00).</li>
<li><strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cobbal01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Alex Cobb</a></strong> will request a trade before the end of the year.</li>
</ul><br />
<h3>AL Central</h3><br />
<b>1. Cleveland Indians (105–57, 1st playoff seed)</b> <br />
<ul><li>It's finally the Indians' turn. After going down 0–3 in the World Series, the players will ritualistically burn all their Chief Wahoo paraphernalia, the team will rattle off four straight wins, and Cleveland will be world champions.</li>
<li><strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/alonsyo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Yonder Alonso</a></strong> is for real. Playing in the deepest lineup of his career, he'll set personal highs in runs and RBIs.</li>
<li>Two excellent months in the bigs will only be enough to nab <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mejiafr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Francisco Mejia</a></strong> third place in Rookie of the Year balloting.</li>
<li><strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kipnija01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Jason Kipnis</a></strong> will win AL Comeback Player of the Year.</li>
<li><strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/salazda01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Danny Salazar</a></strong> will be a fiend when he comes off the DL: a 2.50 ERA, 13 strikeouts per nine innings, and his first career no-hitter.</li>
<li>Following up their <a href="https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/978764049654669312">historic performance</a> in 2017, the Indians pitching staff will amass the <i>second</i>-most WAR in MLB history.</li>
</ul><br />
<b>2. Minnesota Twins (85–77, 2nd Wild Card)</b> <br />
<ul><li>No Twin has struck out more than one batter per inning since <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/liriafr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Francisco Liriano</a></strong> in 2010. This year, three of them do it: <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/berrijo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">José Berríos</a></strong>, <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/o/odorija01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Jake Odorizzi</a></strong>, and <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lynnla01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Lance Lynn</a></strong>.</li>
<li><strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/santaer01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Ervin Santana</a></strong> will post less than a win of value.</li>
<li>After <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/sanomi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Miguel Sanó</a></strong>'s third game-losing defensive gaffe, the Twins will move him permanently to DH, supplanting the anemic bat of <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/morrilo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Logan Morrison</a></strong> (.250/.310/.420).</li>
<li><strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/buxtoby01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Byron Buxton</a></strong> will finish in the AL's top five in WAR and MVP voting.</li>
</ul><br />
<b>3. Chicago White Sox (70–92)</b> <br />
<ul><li>The White Sox' biggest achievement this year—and I'm not being funny, it will actually be very promising—will be that they will send not one, but two representatives to the All-Star Game. <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/moncayo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Yoan Moncada</a></strong> and <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/giolilu01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Lucas Giolito</a></strong> will also finish 2018 with more than 3.0 WAR each, the clubhouse leaders in that category.</li>
<li>For you fantasy hounds, <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/jonesna01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Nate Jones</a></strong> will emerge as Chicago's closer.</li>
<li>Look for <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/garciav01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Avisail García</a></strong> to return to a league-average OPS.</li>
</ul><br />
<b>4. Kansas City Royals (68–94)</b> <br />
<ul><li><strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/duffyda01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Danny Duffy</a></strong> will continue to blossom into one of the league's best pitchers. This year, his WAR crests 5.0 for the first time.</li>
<li><strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/dudalu01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Lucas Duda</a></strong> (one year, $3.5 million) will have a better WAR, home-run total, and OPS than the departed <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hosmeer01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Eric Hosmer</a></strong> (eight years, $144 million).</li>
</ul><br />
<b>5. Detroit Tigers (61–101)</b> <br />
<ul><li><strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cabremi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Miguel Cabrera</a></strong> will take one last gasp of greatness—think 25 home runs and 90 RBIs—before age robs us of his talent for good.</li>
<li>If you thought the Tigers bullpen was bad before, get ready for the 2018 version to make a run at the title of worst bullpen of all time—currently the 2013 Astros (−5.2 WAR).</li>
</ul><br />
<h3>AL West</h3><br />
<b>1. Houston Astros (101–61, 2nd playoff seed)</b> <br />
<ul><li>That <a href="https://theathletic.com/289324/2018/03/26/after-spring-experimenting-the-astros-are-prepared-to-use-a-four-man-outfield-shift-in-the-regular-season/" target="_blank">four-man outfield</a> the Astros were teasing the other day? They'll use it exactly once this season.</li>
<li><strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=mcculla02,mcculla01&search=Lance+McCullers&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Lance McCullers</a></strong> will finally show what he's capable of in a full season: the lowest ERA in the Houston rotation, 270 strikeouts, and a second-place Cy Young finish.</li>
<li><strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/peacobr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Brad Peacock</a></strong> will beat out <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=mortoch02,mortoch01&search=Charlie+Morton&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Charlie Morton</a></strong> for the last slot in the rotation.</li>
<li>The 2018 Astros will strike out more batters than any other pitching staff in history.</li>
<li>After steamrolling the Yankees in the ALDS, the Astros will lose the pennant in an epic ALCS with the Indians—the dream matchup we were denied in 2017. The series will set records for the lowest-scoring and strikeout-heaviest seven-game playoff series in history.</li>
</ul><br />
<b>2. Los Angeles Angels (83–79)</b> <br />
<ul><li><strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/troutmi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Mike Trout</a></strong>, MVP, next prediction please.</li>
<li>The Angels' splashy offseason will produce useful players, but hardly the superstars they thought they were getting. <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/u/uptonju01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Justin Upton</a></strong> and <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cozarza01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Zack Cozart</a></strong> will revert to their career averages, while <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kinslia01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Ian Kinsler</a></strong> will never exceed 3.0 WAR again.</li>
<li><strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=otani-000sho&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Shohei Ohtani</a></strong> will be an OK hitter and an OK pitcher, but people won't realize that, in combination, that actually makes him a <i>really</i> good player, and he'll lose Rookie of the Year to <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=torres000gle&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Gleyber Torres</a></strong>.</li>
<li>If I'm right and the baseball returns to its pre-2015 norm, <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/heanean01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Andrew Heaney</a></strong> is poised for a nice (3.50 ERA) year. If the balls are still juiced, he'll allow 40 home runs.</li>
<li><strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/richaga01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Garrett Richards</a></strong> will lead the staff in ERA thanks to the Angels' league-best infield defense.</li>
</ul><br />
<b>3. Oakland Athletics (81–81)</b> <br />
<ul><li>Led by <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/o/olsonma02.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Matt Olson</a></strong> (who will turn a .290/.390/.650 season into a top-five MVP finish), the A's will have one of the top three offenses in the league, going by OPS+.</li>
<li>By contrast, <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/manaese01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Sean Manaea</a></strong> will be Oakland's only above-average starting pitcher. As a result, the A's bullpen will log the second-most innings in the league (with an asterisk next to Tampa Bay at #1).</li>
<li>The perpetually underrated <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/melvibo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Bob Melvin</a></strong> will win his first Manager of the Year Award since 2012.</li>
</ul><br />
<b>4. Texas Rangers (79–83)</b> <br />
<ul><li><strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=deshide02,deshide01&search=Delino+DeShields&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Delino DeShields Jr.</a></strong> will lead the American League in stolen bases.</li>
<li><strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/minormi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Mike Minor</a></strong> will stage a <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hillri01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Rich Hill</a></strong>–style renaissance, with 20 or so sparkling starts followed by a physical breakdown.</li>
<li><strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=odorro01,odor--003rou&search=Rougned+Odor&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Rougned Odor</a></strong> will bounce back with a .270/.300/.460 slash line.</li>
<li>After one atrocious start—appropriately, in Cleveland—<strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/colonba01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Bartolo Colón</a></strong> will finally retire from the major leagues.</li>
</ul><br />
<b>5. Seattle Mariners (74–88)</b> <br />
<ul><li>With an OBP approaching .400, <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/vogelda01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Dan Vogelbach</a></strong> will wrest the starting first-base job from <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/healyry01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Ryon Healy</a></strong> early in the season.</li>
<li>Without the juiced baseball to help him, <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/z/zuninmi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Mike Zunino</a></strong>'s power—and main source of value—will vanish. He'll be lucky to hit .200 and 15 home runs.</li>
<li>Distracted by the position change, <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gordode01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Dee Gordon</a></strong> will not only be a liability with the glove, but he'll also hit only .240.</li>
<li><strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hernafe02.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Félix Hernández</a></strong> will be Seattle's worst starter by ERA.</li>
<li><strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=diazed04,diazed03,diaz--005edw&search=Edwin+Diaz&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Edwin Díaz</a></strong> will lead the AL in saves.</li>
<li>After the disappointing season, manager <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/servasc01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Scott Servais</a></strong> will be canned.</li>
<li>The Mariners will at least lead the league in something—trades swung.</li>
</ul>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8280420876387355520.post-12445773329273062552018-03-23T18:39:00.004-04:002019-12-19T10:59:23.166-05:00What I Didn't Expect in Baseball in 2017With less than a week until this year's record-early Opening Day, I'll be sharing my annual predictions for the upcoming baseball season pretty soon. But if last year's predictions are any indication, you should probably ignore them. (I'm really good at marketing, guys.) After looking back at <a href="http://baseballot.blogspot.com/2018/03/what-i-didnt-expect-in-politics-in-2017.html" target="_blank">how my political forecasts fared in 2017</a>, I do the same for baseball below, and... it's not pretty. Come, let's all laugh at my terrible prediction skills together:<br />
<br />
(You can read my full predictions for the <a href="http://baseballot.blogspot.com/2017/04/predicting-2017-seasonamerican-league.html" target="_blank">2017 American League season here</a>; the <a href="http://baseballot.blogspot.com/2017/04/predicting-2017-seasonnational-league.html" target="_blank">2017 National League season is here</a>.)<br />
<br />
<b>Prediction:</b> The AL division winners would be the Red Sox, Indians, and Astros; the Blue Jays and Rays would win the Wild Cards. In the NL, the Nationals, Cubs, and Dodgers would win their divisions, with the Mets and Cardinals nabbing Wild Cards.<br />
<b>What Really Happened:</b> I got all the division winners right—although everyone else did, too (those six teams had it in the bag since virtually Opening Day)—but the Yankees, Twins, Diamondbacks, and Rockies won the Wild Cards. I had projected the Twins and D'backs for 68 and 74 wins, respectively, two of my worst predictions on the year. One of my predicted playoff teams, the Mets, instead lost 92 games. (Amazingly, though, I still nailed every other team in the NL East within two wins.) Overall, I got 13 teams within five games of their eventual win totals, and the average error of my predictions was 7.7 wins. <br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-5b-Zj7YsEyA/WrPf89fV5wI/AAAAAAAAHjY/O7jZ7Pfz-tIuawFxh55PHwWuUTnrJnK3QCLcBGAs/s1600/2017%2Bstandings.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-5b-Zj7YsEyA/WrPf89fV5wI/AAAAAAAAHjY/O7jZ7Pfz-tIuawFxh55PHwWuUTnrJnK3QCLcBGAs/s1600/2017%2Bstandings.png" data-original-width="862" data-original-height="994" width="450"/></a></div><br />
<b>Prediction:</b> <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/birdgr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Greg Bird</a></strong> and <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/judgeaa01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Aaron Judge</a></strong> would be the modern Mantle and Maris, going back and forth all season as the Yankees team home-run leader.<br />
<b>What Really Happened:</b> This line allows me to take credit for calling Judge's breakout season, right? The towering right fielder obviously came close to winning the AL MVP with his 52 home runs. Bird, though, laid an egg: .190/.288/.422 with just nine homers.<br />
<br />
<b>Prediction:</b> <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/altuvjo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">José Altuve</a></strong> would captivate America with a 50-game hitting streak.<br />
<b>What Really Happened:</b> Altuve's longest hitting streak of the season was 19 games, but I doubt he was disappointed—he won the AL MVP and got to <a href="https://deadspin.com/jose-altuves-day-at-the-white-house-looked-pretty-awkwa-1823704161" target="_blank">death-stare President Trump</a>.<br />
<br />
<b>Prediction:</b> <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/stantmi03.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Giancarlo Stanton</a></strong> would be the first Marlin ever to top 50 home runs, leading the National League.<br />
<b>What Really Happened:</b> Stanton hit 59 homers, best in not only the Senior Circuit, but all of baseball.<br />
<br />
<b>Prediction:</b> By the end of the season, Jeb Bush would be the proud new owner of the Marlins.<br />
<b>What Really Happened:</b> Poor Jeb can't win anything, can he? The group headed by Bruce Sherman and <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/jeterde01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Derek Jeter</a></strong> instead won the bidding and bought the team in August.<br />
<br />
<b>Prediction:</b> <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/broxtke01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Keon Broxton</a></strong> and <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/santado01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Domingo Santana</a></strong> would strike out a combined 300 times, but both would get on base at .350 clips despite .250 batting averages. Broxton would hit 20 homers with 30 steals, and Santana would produce a mirror-image 30/20 season. <br />
<b>What Really Happened:</b> I was pretty close. Broxton hit exactly 20 homers but stole "only" 21 bases. A bigger problem was his average and OBP: .220 and .299, respectively. Santana hit exactly 30 homers and stole "only" 15 bases. He hit .278 and got on base at a .371 clip.<br />
<br />
<b>Prediction:</b> <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/harpebr03.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Bryce Harper</a></strong>, <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=eatonad02,eatonad01&search=Adam+Eaton&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Adam Eaton</a></strong>, <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/turnetr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Trea Turner</a></strong>, <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rendoan01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Anthony Rendon</a></strong>, and <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/murphda08.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Daniel Murphy</a></strong> would each be worth more than 4.0 WAR.<br />
<b>What Really Happened:</b> Three surpassed that threshold, according to FanGraphs: Rendon (6.9), Harper (4.8), and Murphy (4.3). Turner wasn't too far behind at 3.0, but Eaton tore his ACL at the end of April, cutting off his season at 0.5 WAR.<br />
<br />
<b>Prediction:</b> The Rockies rotation would be the best in club history.<br />
<b>What Really Happened:</b> They posted 11.8 FanGraphs WAR (fifth in club history) and a 91 ERA− (second in club history). <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/grayjo02.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Jon Gray</a></strong> (3.2 WAR and a 73 ERA−) and <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/marquge01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Germán Márquez</a></strong> (2.4 and 87) led the way.<br />
<br />
<b>Prediction:</b> Tigers manager <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/ausmubr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Brad Ausmus</a></strong> would be fired in May. With the team hovering around .500 at the trade deadline, ownership would finally give the OK to blow it all up and rebuild.<br />
<b>What Really Happened:</b> Ausmus held on the whole season, but he was quasi-fired in September when the Tigers announced they <a href="https://www.blessyouboys.com/2017/9/22/15871456/brad-ausmus-contract-not-renewed-tigers-fired" target="_blank">wouldn't renew his contract</a>. The Tigers entered the July trade deadline at 47–56 and the August deadline at 58–74; it was at the second one when they finally fire-sold off <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/u/uptonju01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Justin Upton</a></strong> and <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/verlaju01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Justin Verlander</a></strong>.<br />
<br />
<b>Prediction:</b> The San Francisco offense would post its worst offensive season since the 2011 squad's 91 OPS+.<br />
<b>What Really Happened:</b> The 2017 Giants managed just an 83 OPS+, the worst in baseball and the Giants' worst score since 2009. <br />
<br />
<b>Prediction:</b> <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/sandopa01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Pablo Sandoval</a></strong> would scream back to relevance with 25 home runs and a positive number of Defensive Runs Saved.<br />
<b>What Really Happened:</b> This is one of those predictions that makes you realize just how long ago March 2017 was. Sandoval hit .212/.269/.354 with the Red Sox, was released in July, returned to the Giants, and basically put up the same slash line for them. He hit nine home runs total with −7 DRS.<br />
<br />
<b>Prediction:</b> Every Orioles starting pitcher except <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mileywa01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Wade Miley</a></strong> would give up more runs in 2017 than in 2016.<br />
<b>What Really Happened:</b> They all did it—including Miley. <br />
<br />
<b>Prediction:</b> <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rayro02.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Robbie Ray</a></strong> would take a huge step forward, shaving more than a run off his ERA and leading the league in strikeouts.<br />
<b>What Really Happened:</b> Ray went from a 4.90 ERA to 2.89. Ray's 218 strikeouts were "only" good for third in the Senior Circuit (<strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/scherma01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Max Scherzer</a></strong> led with 268), but Ray did lead in strikeouts per nine innings (12.11).<br />
<br />
<b>Prediction:</b> Every Dodgers starting pitcher would miss at least eight starts as the injury bug plagued Los Angeles.<br />
<b>What Really Happened:</b> Every Dodgers starting pitcher missed at least five starts. Their pitchers <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/2017-disabled-list-information/" target="_blank">lost 1,051 days to the disabled list in total</a>, and the entire roster led MLB with 1,914 days missed.<br />
<br />
<b>Prediction:</b> <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/segurje01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Jean Segura</a></strong> would be a huge bust. <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hanigmi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Mitch Haniger</a></strong> would turn out to be the more valuable addition from the <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/walketa01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Taijuan Walker</a></strong> trade, even in the short term.<br />
<b>What Really Happened:</b> Segura went from 5.0 WAR to 2.9 WAR—hardly a bust, and still better than Haniger. However, I was at least right that Haniger would distinguish himself right away: he accumulated 2.5 WAR and wOBA-ed .360.<br />
<br />
<b>Prediction:</b> The Mets rotation would be fully healthy and dominant, getting 200 innings out of <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/syndeno01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Noah Syndergaard</a></strong>, a sub-3.00 ERA from <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/matzst01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Steven Matz</a></strong>, and even a respectable year out of <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/harvema01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Matt Harvey</a></strong>.<br />
<b>What Really Happened:</b> A wonky elbow held Matz to 13 starts with a 6.08 ERA. A torn lat muscle kept Syndergaard out for five months. And Harvey was lucky not to be non-tendered after his 6.70 ERA performance.<br />
<br />
<b>Prediction:</b> <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/z/zimmejo02.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Jordan Zimmermann</a></strong> would rue signing with Detroit as he became a pure contact pitcher (setting a career low in strikeout percentage) but the Tigers' league-worst defense failed to convert them into outs.<br />
<b>What Really Happened:</b> Exactly that. Zimmermann's 14.5% strikeout percentage was not only a career low, but it was also fifth-worst among all MLB pitchers with at least 160 innings pitched. As a result of the Tigers' AL-worst −69 DRS, Zimmermann mustered just a 6.08 ERA.<br />
<br />
<b>Prediction:</b> Two former Rangers prospects would experience resurgences. <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/profaju01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Jurickson Profar</a></strong> would win the batting title, and <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=deshide02,deshide01&search=Delino+DeShields&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Delino DeShields Jr.</a></strong> would sport a .350 OBP and 30 stolen bases.<br />
<b>What Really Happened:</b> Whoops—Profar hit .172 in only 58 at-bats. But DeShields came eerily close to my projections: his OBP was .347, and he stole 29 bases.<br />
<br />
<b>Prediction:</b> <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hollagr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Greg Holland</a></strong> wouldn't notch a save all season.<br />
<b>What Really Happened:</b> He led the NL in them with 41.<br />
<br />
<b>Prediction:</b> <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/berrijo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">José Berríos</a></strong> and <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/buxtoby01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Byron Buxton</a></strong> would finally live up to their potential—which would be good for the Twins, since <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/doziebr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Brian Dozier</a></strong> would hit just .210 with 10 home runs and nearly 200 strikeouts.<br />
<b>What Really Happened:</b> Berríos went from walking nearly as many as he struck out in 2016 to 14–8 with a 3.89 ERA. Buxton hit a decent .728 OPS but, thanks to stellar defense, amassed 3.5 WAR. Dozier, though, was his usual excellent self, slashing .271/.359/.498 with 141 strikeouts and only mild regression in the homer department (34).<br />
<br />
<b>Prediction:</b> <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/daviswa01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Wade Davis</a></strong> would struggle with his control in his recovery from injury, and <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hendrky01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Kyle Hendricks</a></strong> would regress to league average.<br />
<b>What Really Happened:</b> Davis did indeed walk a career-high 11.6% of batters he faced; I'm nervous for him in 2018. Hendricks regressed from a 2.13 ERA to 3.03, but that was still good for an ERA+ of 144. <br />
<br />
<b>Prediction:</b> I called <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/swansda01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Dansby Swanson</a></strong> winning NL Rookie of the Year "the safest prediction on this page." However, I did expect <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bellico01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Cody Bellinger</a></strong> to "force himself into the lineup in mid-siummer."<br />
<b>What Really Happened:</b> Swanson didn't even get Rookie of the Year votes, as he finished with just 0.1 WAR. Bellinger came up on April 25 and didn't look back, collecting 39 home runs and the ROY trophy.<br />
<br />
<b>Prediction:</b> The Rangers would have a losing record in one-run games, and they would lead the AL in days spent on the DL.<br />
<b>What Really Happened:</b> Texas did indeed go 13–24 in one-run games, the worst mark in baseball. Their players spent an above-average 1,271 days on the DL, but the Rays led the AL with 1,644.<br />
<br />
<b>Prediction:</b> <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/heywaja01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Jason Heyward</a></strong> would bounce back with a .290/.350/.450 slash line, 20 DRS, and a 5.0 WAR. <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/z/zobribe01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Ben Zobrist</a></strong>, on the other hand, would run into a brick wall. His modest value with the bat would be offset by the worst defensive season of his career.<br />
<b>What Really Happened:</b> Heyward was only marginally better than his disappointing 2016 with the bat (.259/.326/.389), and while he did put up 18 DRS, UZR was much less kind to him. As a result, he had a FanGraphs WAR of just 0.9. Zobrist joined him in the Cubs' trash heap, though not for the reasons I foresaw. He was putrid at the plate (.232/.318/.375) but maintained a (barely) positive defensive value (1 DRS, 1.7 Fielding Runs Above Average).<br />
<br />
<b>Prediction:</b> <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/solerjo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Jorge Soler</a></strong> would lead Royals position players in WAR.<br />
<b>What Really Happened:</b> At −1.0, he was instead dead last.<br />
<br />
<b>Prediction:</b> <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/grayso01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Sonny Gray</a></strong> would continue to be a 75 ERA+ pitcher, <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cottojh01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Jharel Cotton</a></strong> would pitch 160 innings with a 3.40 ERA, and All-Star <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/manaese01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Sean Manaea</a></strong> would be the first of the 2017 season to throw a no-hitter.<br />
<b>What Really Happened:</b> Gray returned to form with a 123 ERA+, good enough to be traded to the Yankees. Cotton stunk up the joint to the tune of a 5.58 ERA in 129 innings. Manaea was better (a 4.37 ERA) but no All-Star—although he did throw five no-hit innings in just his third start of the season. (He was removed with the no-hitter intact because he had already thrown 98 pitches.)<br />
<br />
<b>Prediction:</b> <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bruceja01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Jay Bruce</a></strong> would finally win over Mets fans by giving them a .750 OPS, while <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=reyesjo01,reyesjo02,reyes-023jos,reyes-019jos,reyes-016jos&search=Jose+Reyes&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">José Reyes</a></strong> would be banished from Flushing for good by the end of the season.<br />
<b>What Really Happened:</b> Bruce gave Mets fans a .841 OPS, earning a trade to Cleveland, but New York welcomed him back as a free agent in January. Despite being far worse (a .315 OBP), Reyes was allowed to bat 501 times for the Mets, and he too was re-signed in January.<br />
<br />
<b>Prediction:</b> The Dodgers would have the NL's stingiest bullpen, followed by the Marlins.<br />
<b>What Really Happened:</b> The Dodgers did rank first in the NL in bullpen ERA (3.38), but the Marlins ranked 10th (4.40).<br />
<br />
<b>Prediction:</b> <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hernafe02.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Félix Hernández</a></strong> would post a career-low strikeout rate and flirt with his career-high ERA of 4.52. However, <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/smylydr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Drew Smyly</a></strong> would make up for it with a 3.20 ERA. <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/paxtoja01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">James Paxton</a></strong> would finally pitch to his 2.80 FIP.<br />
<b>What Really Happened:</b> Hernández's 21.2% strikeout rate wasn't the lowest of his career, but his ERA did soar to 4.36. Smyly didn't pitch an inning all season, going under the knife in June. Paxton did indeed have that breakout season, posting a 2.98 ERA, but it still didn't catch up to his FIP, which was an outstanding 2.61.<br />
<br />
<b>Prediction:</b> <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/dahlda01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">David Dahl</a></strong> would surpass outfield-mates <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=gonzaca01,gonzal014car,gonzal026car&search=Carlos+Gonzalez&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Carlos González</a></strong> and <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/blackch02.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Charlie Blackmon</a></strong> in WAR.<br />
<b>What Really Happened:</b> Dahl never played in the majors all year long, so obviously he failed to do so. It would've been easy to beat out González (−0.2 WAR), but Blackmon got MVP votes with his 6.5 score.<br />
<br />
<b>Prediction:</b> <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/souzast01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Steven Souza</a></strong> would finally have that 20/20 breakout season, and <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rasmuco01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Colby Rasmus</a></strong> and <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=duffyma02,duffyma01&search=Matt+Duffy&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Matt Duffy</a></strong> would match their career-high WARs for the Rays.<br />
<b>What Really Happened:</b> Rasmus "<a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2017/07/13/rays-colby-rasmus/477058001/" target="_blank">stepped away from baseball</a>" halfway through the year, and Duffy never even played in the majors. Souza did break out, but not in quite so balanced a proportion: he hit 30 home runs and stole 16 bases. Both were career highs, and he was traded to the Diamondbacks for his efforts.<br />
<br />
<b>Prediction:</b> <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/villajo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Jonathan Villar</a></strong> would hit just .240, and his runs scored and stolen bases would both be slashed in half from 2016.<br />
<b>What Really Happened:</b> Villar hit .241. His runs scored went from 92 to 49, and his stolen bases went from 62 to 23.<br />
<br />
<b>Prediction:</b> <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/archech01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Chris Archer</a></strong> and <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/snellbl01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Blake Snell</a></strong> would be a formidable two-headed monster at the front of the Rays rotation, but the AL Cy Young Award would go to KC's <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/duffyda01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Danny Duffy</a></strong> (a 2.50 ERA and 240 strikeouts).<br />
<b>What Really Happened:</b> Archer actually regressed from 2016 with a 4.07 ERA, and Snell was close behind at 4.04. Duffy was a little better, boasting a 3.81 ERA, but only punched out 130. None of the three received any Cy Young votes.<br />
<br />
<b>Prediction:</b> <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/taillja01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Jameson Taillon</a></strong>'s 2.50 ERA would put him squarely in the NL Cy Young conversation. However, Pirates teammate <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kangju01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Jung Ho Kang</a></strong>'s personal and legal problems would end his major-league career.<br />
<b>What Really Happened:</b> Taillon instead took a huge step back with a 4.44 ERA, although a 3.48 FIP and .352 BABIP suggests he didn't deserve that fate. And <a href="http://www.post-gazette.com/sports/pirates/2017/12/09/jung-ho-kang-dui-south-korea-update-pittsburgh-pirates-mlb-offseason-neal-huntington-frank-coonelly/stories/201712090108" target="_blank">so far so bad for Kang</a>.<br />
<br />
<b>Prediction:</b> <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=bautijo02,bautijo01&search=Jose+Bautista&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">José Bautista</a></strong> would bounce back so convincingly that he would be as valuable as his 2016 self and <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/e/encared01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-" onclick="sr_record_analytics_event('newsfeed_click','', sr_record_directory(),'sr_tracker');">Edwin Encarnación</a></strong> combined.<br />
<b>What Really Happened:</b> Bautista was awful. His −0.5 WAR was far worse than the 1.4 he accrued in 2016. Encarnación was worth 2.5 WAR in his first season in Cleveland.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8280420876387355520.post-80665330053416651452018-03-13T12:27:00.000-04:002019-12-19T10:59:45.520-05:00What I Didn't Expect in Politics in 2017It's snowing out and <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2018/03/13/us/politics/trump-tillerson-pompeo.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=span-ab-top-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news" target="_blank">nothing else</a> is really <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/everything-you-need-to-know-about-the-pennsylvania-18th-special-election/" target="_blank">going on</a>, so I'm taking care of some site housekeeping today. Every year, I make a certain number of predictions on these webpages, and every year I try to look back at how I did. This is the first of two posts on that subject—the one that will focus on politics.<br />
<br />
Every fall, I issue race ratings, inspired by those at <a href="https://www.insideelections.com/" target="_blank">Inside Elections</a>, for every downballot constitutional office up for election. For those types of elections (<a href="https://www.cnn.com/2018/01/20/politics/everything-that-happened-donald-trump-first-year/index.html" target="_blank">not so much for politics in general</a>), 2017 was a pretty quiet year: only the Virginia lieutenant governor, Virginia attorney general, and Louisiana treasurer were on the ballot. Here were my ratings for those three races, <a href="http://baseballot.blogspot.com/2017/10/2017-downballot-race-ratings-for.html" target="_blank">originally issued in October</a> and kept current (although they never changed) through November 6. They predicted a status quo election, with Democrats holding onto the two offices they already owned, and Republicans successfully defending their one seat.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-9JEA2xzwAQo/WeQzw-duJpI/AAAAAAAAHZ0/05OBgkQENqkyJrjrfh8QADzcTliwRpwtgCLcBGAs/s1600/2017%2Bratings.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="302" data-original-width="772" length="178" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-9JEA2xzwAQo/WeQzw-duJpI/AAAAAAAAHZ0/05OBgkQENqkyJrjrfh8QADzcTliwRpwtgCLcBGAs/s1600/2017%2Bratings.png" width="454" /></a></div><br />
The small number of races meant I had fewer opportunities to make a bone-headed mistake, and as a result the ratings validated quite nicely.<br />
<ul><li>Democrats won two out of two races I rated as <b>Lean Democratic.</b></li>
<li>Republicans won the one contest I rated as <b>Solid Republican.</b></li>
</ul>The final results are also pretty close to how one might express a "Lean Democratic" or "Solid Republican" race quantitatively. Here's the Democratic margin of victory or defeat in each of the three elections:<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-XgBl9aZJUMc/Wqf4yqEbQ8I/AAAAAAAAHik/Rjo_38qs_GwklNC9eSQClAFzR0fiYt-lgCLcBGAs/s1600/2017%2Brating%2Bresults.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-XgBl9aZJUMc/Wqf4yqEbQ8I/AAAAAAAAHik/Rjo_38qs_GwklNC9eSQClAFzR0fiYt-lgCLcBGAs/s1600/2017%2Brating%2Bresults.png" data-original-width="432" data-original-height="162" width="300" /></a></div><br />
In a well-calibrated world, the Virginia average of D+6.2 is probably right on the border between Lean Democratic and Likely Democratic. Likewise, the Louisiana treasurer margin of R+11.5 is on the Solid side of Likely Republican. All in all, pretty close, though.<br />
<br />
As I mentioned, getting these races right is no great achievement: last year offered a small number of fairly predictable races. The big challenge will be 2018; midterm cycles are the absolute busiest for downballot constitutional offices. My goal this year is to merely handicap <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aVd-_FbSwOyzj9fg7o6CbZM8VdGGOKtQgG3pAiTRjhE/edit#gid=0" target="_blank">all 142 of them</a> before November, let alone get them all right. Wish me luck!Unknownnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8280420876387355520.post-26266456821133900262018-03-02T13:46:00.000-05:002018-03-02T13:48:34.905-05:00Race Ratings for the 90th Academy AwardsThe Oscars are the one election that numbers still can't predict. The black box that is the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences doesn't lend itself to model-building; instead, we're forced to rely on the sleuthing and scuttlebutt of <a href="https://twitter.com/baseballot/lists/academy-awards" target="_blank">reporters with their fingers on the pulse of the electorate</a>. I'm sorry to say that the fate of your Oscar pool rests entirely on educated guesses.<br />
<br />
In politics, there's a place for those too. My colleagues at <a href="https://www.insideelections.com" target="_blank">Inside Elections</a> and other electoral handicappers issue qualitative predictions on a scale from "Solid Democratic" to "Solid Republican," and it's proven a useful way for politicos to easily think about and group together races of varying competitiveness. In that spirit, for <a href="http://baseballot.blogspot.com/2017/02/race-ratings-for-89th-academy-awards.html" target="_blank">four</a> <a href="http://baseballot.blogspot.com/2016/02/race-ratings-for-88th-academy-awards.html" target="_blank">years</a> <a href="http://baseballot.blogspot.com/2015/02/race-ratings-for-87th-academy-awards.html" target="_blank">running</a> <a href="http://baseballot.blogspot.com/2014/02/race-ratings-for-86th-academy-awards.html" target="_blank">now</a>, I've issued the same type of race ratings for the 24 categories at the Academy Awards. Meant to give the fairweather Oscars fan a quick idea of the state of play, they're the best way to think about who will win the big prizes on Sunday night. <br />
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Below are my ratings for the 90th Academy Awards, based on a consensus of <a href="https://www.oddschecker.com/awards/oscars" target="_blank">betting markets</a>, <a href="http://moviecitynews.com/awards-watch/gurus-o-gold/" target="_blank">expert opinions</a>, and <a href="https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/lists/oscars-math-predicts-a-shape-water-best-picture-win-1089106" target="_blank">award history</a>. For my own personal predictions (which occasionally veer away from conventional wisdom to try to predict the <a href="http://baseballot.blogspot.com/2013/02/oscar-categories-ripest-for-upset.html" target="_blank">inevitable upset</a>), <a href="http://www.goldderby.com/view-predictions/nrakich/oscars-2018/" target="_blank">click here</a>.<br />
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<b>Best Picture:</b> Tilt <i>The Shape of Water</i><br />
The Oscars' <a href="http://www.goldderby.com/article/2018/2018-oscars-best-picture-ballots-preferential-voting-system/" target="_blank">use of instant-runoff voting</a> for the top prize has kept the Best Picture winner consistently suspenseful for the last several years—<a href="https://www.vanityfair.com/hollywood/2017/02/oscars-2017-moonlight-best-picture-la-la-land-wrong-envelope" target="_blank">including when it wasn't supposed to be suspenseful at all</a>. This year is no exception, as <i>The Shape of Water</i> and <i>Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri</i> have both won crucial precursor prizes (the Directors Guild of America Award and the Screen Actors Guild Award, respectively). Both would break Oscar precedent, as <i>The Shape of Water</i> would be only the second film in 25 years to win Best Picture without at least a nomination for SAG's top prize, and <i>Three Billboards</i> would be only the second film in 25 years to win without a Best Director nomination. I give the edge to <i>Shape,</i> since it has more Oscar nominations overall (13), indicating support among all of the <a href="http://www.goldderby.com/article/2018/2018-oscars-winners-academy-awards-voters/" target="_blank">Academy's branches</a>, and also snagged the <a href="http://www.goldderby.com/article/2018/2018-producers-guild-of-america-awards-oscar-best-picture-pga/" target="_blank">highly predictive</a> Producers Guild of America Award.<br />
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<b>Best Director:</b> Solid Guillermo del Toro<br />
The <i>Shape of Water</i> helmer won the all-important DGA Award, while <i>Three Billboards</i>'s Martin McDonagh isn't even nominated. Once Del Toro wins, all three of the "Three Amigos"—the Mexican auteurs Alfonso Cuarón, Alejandro González Iñárritu, and Del Toro—will have won the Best Director Oscar this decade.<br />
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<b>Best Actor:</b> Solid Gary Oldman<br />
Oldman has been rewarded for his physical transformation into Winston Churchill in <i>Darkest Hour</i> by nearly every awards guild thus far. <br />
<br />
<b>Best Actress:</b> Solid Frances McDormand<br />
McDormand's portrayal of a justice-seeking mother in <i>Three Billboards</i> is Oldman's awards-circuit dominance without a Y chromosome. She's a lock as well.<br />
<br />
<b>Best Supporting Actor:</b> Solid Sam Rockwell<br />
McDormand's <i>Three Billboards</i> co-star seems like he will easily overcome whisper campaigns about his <a href="https://www.vox.com/2018/1/19/16878018/three-billboards-controversy-racist-sam-rockwell-redemption-flannery-oconnor" target="_blank">character's problematic arc</a> to win Oscar gold.<br />
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<b>Best Supporting Actress:</b> Solid Allison Janney<br />
There was a time when Janney and <i>Lady Bird</i>'s Laurie Metcalf were running neck and neck here, so some might still see this as a competitive category, but since the precursor awards started getting handed out, there's really been no indication that Janney could lose. The only question now is if the <i>I, Tonya</i> star will <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q7H_L5cYkg8" target="_blank">rap "The Jackal" as part of her acceptance speech</a>.<br />
<br />
<b>Best Adapted Screenplay:</b> Solid <i>Call Me by Your Name</i><br />
This is an historically weak category: three of the nominees weren't good enough to score a nomination anywhere else, and the writing branch had to dig so deep that it nominated a superhero movie <i>(Logan)</i> for the first time in history. The contest here is between <i>Call Me by Your Name</i> and <i>Mudbound;</i> the Best Picture nominee has the clear advantage.<br />
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<b>Best Original Screenplay:</b> Tossup<br />
On the other hand, because almost every prestige pic this year was not adapted, the Best Original Screenplay category is packed to the gills with talent. <i>Get Out,</i> the wildly original thriller with something to say about racism, and the snappy dialogue of <i>Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri</i> are locked in such a tight battle that it's impossible to say who's ahead. <i>Lady Bird</i> could be a dark horse, too.<br />
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<b>Best Animated Feature:</b> Solid <i>Coco</i><br />
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<b>Best Documentary Feature:</b> Lean <i>Faces Places</i><br />
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<b>Best Foreign Language Film:</b> Lean <i>A Fantastic Woman</i><br />
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<b>Best Cinematography:</b> Likely <i>Blade Runner 2049</i><br />
The brilliant Roger Deakins finally looks lined up for his first Oscar after <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1gFUAxAVqWNTnV1Zv9imoNqGAHhkCBr1v4PTkzFV6I1A/edit#gid=0" target="_blank">14 (!) nominations</a>, but beware: the Academy may be <a href="http://baseballot.blogspot.com/2014/03/always-bridesmaid-never-oscar.html" target="_blank">consciously averse to his work</a>. He's been a frontrunner in this category <a href="http://baseballot.blogspot.com/2013/02/oscar-categories-ripest-for-upset.html" target="_blank">at least twice before—only to be upset</a>. <br />
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<b>Best Costume Design:</b> Likely <i>Phantom Thread</i><br />
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<b>Best Film Editing:</b> Tilt <i>Dunkirk</i><br />
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<b>Best Makeup and Hairstyling:</b> Solid <i>Darkest Hour</i><br />
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<b>Best Production Design:</b> Likely <i>The Shape of Water</i><br />
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<b>Best Original Score:</b> Likely <i>The Shape of Water</i><br />
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<b>Best Original Song:</b> Tilt "Remember Me"<br />
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<b>Best Sound Editing:</b> Likely <i>Dunkirk</i><br />
<br />
<b>Best Sound Mixing:</b> Likely <i>Dunkirk</i><br />
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<b>Best Visual Effects:</b> Tossup<br />
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<b>Best Animated Short:</b> Likely <i>Dear Basketball</i><br />
<br />
<b>Best Documentary Short:</b> Lean <i>Edith+Eddie</i><br />
<br />
<b>Best Live-Action Short:</b> Likely <i>DeKalb Elementary</i>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8280420876387355520.post-62041440002073957882018-02-21T12:56:00.001-05:002019-12-19T11:00:13.573-05:00My Model Nailed This Year's Hall of Famers—The Vote Totals, Not So MuchAbout one month ago, <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/jonesch06.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Chipper Jones</a></strong>, <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=guerrvl01,guerre002vla&search=Vladimir+Guerrero&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Vladimir Guerrero</a></strong>, <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/thomeji01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Jim Thome</a></strong>, and <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hoffmtr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Trevor Hoffman</a></strong> were elected to the Baseball Hall of Fame, which means two things: (1) this Hall of Fame election post mortem is almost one month overdue, and (2) for the first time in three years, my <a href="http://baseballot.blogspot.com/2018/01/edgar-martinez-is-coin-flip-away-from.html" target="_blank">forecasting model</a> correctly predicted the entire <a href="https://bbwaa.com/18-hof/" target="_blank">Hall of Fame class</a>. <br />
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You'd think that would be cause for satisfaction (and I suppose it is better than nothing), but instead I'm pretty disappointed with its performance. The reason is that an election model doesn't really try to peg <i>winners</i> per se; rather, it tries to predict final vote totals—in other words, numbers. And quantitatively, my model had an off year, especially compared to some of my peers in the Hall of Fame forecasting world.<br />
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First, a brief rundown of my methodology. My Hall of Fame projections are based on the <a href="https://onedrive.live.com/view.aspx?resid=F2E5D8FC5199DFAF!8063&ithint=file,xlsx&app=Excel&authkey=!AAAsz3uDsmqy_Vw" target="_blank">public ballots</a> dutifully collected and shared with the world by <a href="https://twitter.com/NotMrTibbs" target="_blank">Ryan Thibodaux</a> (and, this year, his <a href="https://twitter.com/NotMrTibbs/status/955939479826542592" target="_blank">team of interns</a>); I extend my gratitude to them again for sacrificing so much of their time doing so. Based on the percentage of public ballots each player is on to date, I calculate his estimated percentage of private (i.e., as yet unshared) votes based on how much those two numbers have differed in past Hall of Fame elections. These "Adjustment Factors"—positive for old-school candidates like <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/vizquom01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Omar Vizquel</a></strong>, negative for steroid users or sabermetric darlings like <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/clemero02.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Roger Clemens</a></strong>—are the demographic weighting to Ryan's raw polling data. And indeed, they produce more accurate results than just taking the Thibodaux Tracker as gospel:<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-bUkR35ioRq8/WoykNaluWcI/AAAAAAAAHhA/hV7nYWLB-2EAMIVEgEa1kO4vcGvTSpDOwCLcBGAs/s1600/Rakich%2Bvs%2BTracker.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-bUkR35ioRq8/WoykNaluWcI/AAAAAAAAHhA/hV7nYWLB-2EAMIVEgEa1kO4vcGvTSpDOwCLcBGAs/s1600/Rakich%2Bvs%2BTracker.png" data-original-width="1016" data-original-height="804" width="508" length="402"/></a></div><br />
My model's average error was 1.6 percentage points; the raw data was off by an average of three points per player. I didn't have as many big misses this year as <a href="http://baseballot.blogspot.com/2017/02/hall-of-fame-projections-are-getting.html" target="_blank">last year</a>; my worst performance was on <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/walkela01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Larry Walker</a></strong>, whom I overestimated by 5.0 points. My model assumed the erstwhile Rockie would gain votes in private balloting, as he had done every year from 2011 to 2016, but 2017 turned out to be the beginning of a trend; Walker did 10.5 points worse on 2018 private ballots than on public ones. I also missed Thome's final vote total by 3.5 points, although I feel better about that one, since first-year candidates are always tricky to predict. Most of my other predictions were pretty close to the mark, including eight players I predicted within a single percentage point. I came within two points of the correct answer for 17 of the 23 players forecasted, giving me a solid median error of 1.3 points. For stat nerds, I also had a root mean square error (RMSE) of 1.9 points.<br />
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All three error values (mean, median, and RMS) were the second-best of my now-six-year Hall of Fame forecasting career. But that's misleading: during the past two years, thanks to Ryan's tireless efforts, more votes have been made public in advance of the announcement than ever before. Of course my predictions are better now—there's less I don't know.<br />
<br />
Really what we should be measuring is my accuracy at predicting only the 175 ballots that were still private when I issued my final projections just minutes before Jeff Idelson opened the envelope to announce the election winners. Here are the differences between my estimates for those ballots and what they actually ended up saying.<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-K5QHp7DUU_0/WozH2IZ_4aI/AAAAAAAAHhQ/q7ubRjeg6ncm92mycdNfnzjirslRN5BeACLcBGAs/s1600/Rakich%2Bprivate%2Bballots.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://2.bp.blogspot.com/-K5QHp7DUU_0/WozH2IZ_4aI/AAAAAAAAHhQ/q7ubRjeg6ncm92mycdNfnzjirslRN5BeACLcBGAs/s1600/Rakich%2Bprivate%2Bballots.png" data-original-width="744" data-original-height="806" width="372" height="403"/></a></div><br />
The biggest misses are still with the same players, but the true degree of my error is now made plain. I overshot Walker's private ballots by more than 12 percentage points, and Thome's by more than eight. Those aren't good performances no matter how you slice them. If we're focusing on the positives, I was within four percentage points on 16 of 23 players. My average error was 3.8 points, much better than last year when I had several double-digit misses, but my median error was 3.2 points, not as good as last year.<br />
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But where I really fell short was in comparison to other Hall of Fame forecasters: <a href="https://twitter.com/chrisbodig" target="_blank">Chris Bodig</a>, who published his first-ever projections this year <a href="https://www.cooperstowncred.com/2018-hall-fame-projected-vote-cooperstown-cred-virtual-ballot/" target="_blank">on his website, Cooperstown Cred</a>; <a href="https://twitter.com/rosscarey?lang=en" target="_blank">Ross Carey</a>, who hosts the <a href="http://www.replacementlevelpodcast.com" target="_blank">Replacement Level Podcast</a> and is the only one with <a href="https://twitter.com/Rosscarey/status/956295163692961792" target="_blank">mostly qualitative predictions</a>; <a href="https://twitter.com/ScottLindholm" target="_blank">Scott Lindholm</a>, who has been issuing <a href="https://twitter.com/ScottLindholm/status/956200552865718272" target="_blank">his projections</a> alongside me since day one; and <a href="https://twitter.com/sarsdell" target="_blank">Jason Sardell</a>, who first issued his <a href="https://twitter.com/sarsdell/status/956270263955542016" target="_blank">probabilistic forecast</a> last year. Of them all, it was the rookie who performed the best: Bodig's private-ballot projections had a mean and median error of only 2.2 percentage points. His RMSE also ranked first (2.7 points), followed by Sardell (3.1), Carey (3.9), me (4.6), and Lindholm (6.3). Bodig also came the closest on the most players (10).<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-_XAoknmdLfU/WozgYAiGXHI/AAAAAAAAHhg/iQ8lDNTsrSYs1pMb7Oy0mfxSAvf5CnRfwCLcBGAs/s1600/Model%2Bcomparison.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-_XAoknmdLfU/WozgYAiGXHI/AAAAAAAAHhg/iQ8lDNTsrSYs1pMb7Oy0mfxSAvf5CnRfwCLcBGAs/s1600/Model%2Bcomparison.png" data-original-width="1038" data-original-height="904" width="519" height="452"/></a></div><br />
Overall, my model performed slightly better this year than it did last year, but that's cold comfort: everyone else improved over last year as well (anecdotally, this year's election felt more predictable than last), so I repeated my standing toward the bottom of the pack. Put simply, that's not good enough. After two years of subpar performances, any good scientist would reevaluate his or her methods, so that's what I'm going to do. Next winter, I'll explore some possible changes to the model in order to make it more accurate. Hopefully, it just needs a small tweak, like calculating Adjustment Factors based on the last two elections rather than the last three (or weighting more recent elections more heavily, a suggestion I've received on Twitter). However, I'm willing to entertain bigger changes too, such as calculating more candidates' vote totals the way I do for first-time candidates, or going more granular to look at exactly which voters are still private and extrapolating from their past votes. Anything in the service of more accuracy! Unknownnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8280420876387355520.post-83297358985720958572018-01-23T02:25:00.001-05:002018-01-24T21:11:23.246-05:00Edgar Martínez Is a Coin Flip Away from the Hall of FameIn early December, I thought we were finally going to get a break. After <a href="http://baseballot.blogspot.com/2017/01/here-are-2017s-final-hall-of-fame.html" target="_blank">four</a> <a href="http://baseballot.blogspot.com/2016/01/2016-hall-of-fame-my-final-call.html" target="_blank">consecutive</a> <a href="http://baseballot.blogspot.com/2014/12/unskewing-polls-of-2015-baseball-hall.html" target="_blank">Hall of Fame</a> <a href="http://baseballot.blogspot.com/2014/01/hall-of-fame-post-mortem.html" target="_blank">elections</a> where the outcome was in real doubt, this year looked like a gimme: <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/jonesch06.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Chipper Jones</a></strong>, <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/thomeji01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Jim Thome</a></strong>, <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=guerrvl01,guerre002vla&search=Vladimir+Guerrero&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Vladimir Guerrero</a></strong>, and <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hoffmtr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Trevor Hoffman</a></strong> were going to make the Hall of Fame comfortably; no one else would sniff 75%.<br />
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Then <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=martied01,martin006edg,martin005edg&search=Edgar+Martinez&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Edgar Martínez</a></strong> started polling at 80%. And stayed there. And stayed there. <a href="https://twitter.com/NotMrTibbs/status/955592137487269888" target="_blank">And stayed there</a>.<br />
<br />
Thanks to Edgar's steady strength in Ryan Thibodaux's <a href="https://onedrive.live.com/view.aspx?resid=F2E5D8FC5199DFAF!8063&ithint=file,xlsx&app=Excel&authkey=!AAAsz3uDsmqy_Vw" target="_blank">BBHOF Tracker</a>, which aggregates all Hall of Fame ballots made public so far this year, <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/13BzkeR9X9KSp_KjYIV9lVZMjHLnnD_51dgRyo0vLZhs/edit#gid=871059211" target="_blank">my projection model</a> of the Baseball Hall of Fame election has alternated between <a href="https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/952758646919827457" target="_blank">forecasting the Mariner great's narrow election</a> and <a href="https://twitter.com/baseballot/status/955298933588332549" target="_blank">predicting he would barely fall short</a>. Despite the roller coaster of emotion these fluctuations have caused <a href="https://twitter.com/SammyFletchino3/status/955457085528920064" target="_blank">on Twitter</a>, the reality is that my model paints a consistent picture: Martínez's odds are basically 50-50.<br />
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My model, which is in its sixth year of predicting the Hall of Fame election, operates on the premise that publicly released ballots differ materially—and consistently—from ballots whose casters choose to keep them private. BBWAA members who share their ballots on Twitter tend to be more willing to vote for PED users, assess candidates using advanced metrics, and use up all 10 spots on their ballot. Private voters—often more grizzled writers who in many cases have stopped covering baseball altogether—prefer "gritty" candidates whose cases rely on traditional metrics like hits, wins, or Gold Glove Awards. As a result, candidates like <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bondsba01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Barry Bonds</a></strong>, <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/clemero02.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Roger Clemens</a></strong> (PEDs), <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mussimi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Mike Mussina</a></strong> (requires advanced stats to appreciate), and Martínez (spent most of his career at DH, a position many baseball purists still pooh-pooh) do substantially worse on private ballots than on public ballots. Candidates like Hoffman (so many saves) and <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/vizquom01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Omar Vizquel</a></strong> (<a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/tht/if-you-vote-for-omar-vizquel-you-have-to-vote-for-jamie-moyer/" target="_blank">so many Gold Gloves</a>) can be expected to do better on ballots we haven't seen than on the ones we have.<br />
<br />
That means the numbers in Thibodaux's Tracker—a.k.a. the public ballots—should be taken <a href="http://www.latimes.com/opinion/op-ed/la-oe-goldberg-trump-seriously-literally-20161206-story.html" target="_blank">seriously but not literally</a>. What my model does is quantify the amount by which each player's vote total in the Tracker should be adjusted. Specifically, I look at the percentage-point difference between each player's performance on public vs. private ballots in the last three Hall of Fame elections (<a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/13BzkeR9X9KSp_KjYIV9lVZMjHLnnD_51dgRyo0vLZhs/edit#gid=563927874" target="_blank">2017</a>, <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/13BzkeR9X9KSp_KjYIV9lVZMjHLnnD_51dgRyo0vLZhs/edit#gid=234974003" target="_blank">2016</a>, and <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/13BzkeR9X9KSp_KjYIV9lVZMjHLnnD_51dgRyo0vLZhs/edit#gid=1898929441" target="_blank">2015</a>). The average of these three numbers (or just two if the player has been on the ballot only since 2016, or just one if he debuted on the ballot last year) is what I call the player's Adjustment Factor. My model simply assumes that the player's public-to-private shift this year will match that average. <br />
<br />
Let's take Edgar as an example. In 2017, his private-ballot performance was 16.6 percentage points lower than his public-ballot performance. In 2016, it was 7.7 percentage points lower, and in 2015 it was 6.8 percentage points lower. That averages out to an Adjustment Factor of −10.37 percentage points. As of Monday night, Martínez was polling at 79.23% in the Tracker, so his estimated performance on private ballots is 68.86%.<br />
<br />
The final step in my model is to combine the public-ballot performance with the estimated private-ballot performance in the appropriate proportions. In the same example, as of Monday night, 207 of an expected 424 ballots had been made public, or 48.82%. If 48.82% of ballots vote for Martínez at a rate of 79.23%, and the remaining 51.18% vote for Martínez at a rate of 68.86%, that computes to an overall performance of 73.92%—just over one point shy of induction.<br />
<br />
But my model is far from infallible. Last year, my private-ballot projections <a href="http://baseballot.blogspot.com/2017/02/hall-of-fame-projections-are-getting.html" target="_blank">were off by an average of 4.8 percentage points</a>—a decidedly meh performance in the small community of Hall of Fame projection models. (But don't stop reading—historically, my projections have <a href="http://baseballot.blogspot.com/2016/01/what-we-learned-from-this-years-hall-of.html" target="_blank">fared much better</a>.) Small, subjective methodological decisions can be enough to affect outcomes in what is truly a mathematical game of inches. For example, why take a straight average of Edgar's last three public-private differentials when they have been growing more and more gaping over time? (Answer: in past years, with other candidates, a straight average has proven more accurate than one that weights recent years more heavily. Historically speaking, Edgar is equally likely to revert to his "usual" modest Adjustment Factor as he is to continue trending in a bad direction.) If there's one thing that studying Hall of Fame elections has taught me, it's that voters will zig when you expect them to zag.<br />
<br />
One of my fellow Hall of Fame forecasters, <a href="https://twitter.com/sarsdell" target="_blank">Jason Sardell</a>, wisely communicates the uncertainty inherent in our vocation by providing not only projected vote totals, but also the probability that each candidate will be elected. His model, which uses a totally different methodology based on voter adds and drops, gives Edgar <a href="https://twitter.com/sarsdell/status/955541169181782017" target="_blank">just a 12% chance</a> of induction as of Monday night. I'm not smart enough to assign probabilities to my own model, but as discussed above, it's pretty clear from the way Edgar has seesawed around the required 75% that his shot is no better than a coin flip. Therefore, when the election results are announced this Wednesday at 6pm ET, no matter where Martínez will fall on my model, no outcome should be a surprise.<br />
<br />
Below are my current Hall of Fame projections for every candidate on the ballot. They will be updated in real time leading up to the announcement. (<b>UPDATE, January 24:</b> The below are my final projections issued just before the announcement.)<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-VB4gfVLdx9Q/Wmk8H7jQD3I/AAAAAAAAHfc/zt2txdz6_i8ouNwAz9Q_jpwW6CevX0gRwCLcBGAs/s1600/HOF%2B2018%2Bprojections.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-VB4gfVLdx9Q/Wmk8H7jQD3I/AAAAAAAAHfc/zt2txdz6_i8ouNwAz9Q_jpwW6CevX0gRwCLcBGAs/s1600/HOF%2B2018%2Bprojections.png" data-original-width="1248" data-original-height="1310" width="499" height="524"/></a></div><br />
(Still with me? Huzzah. There's one loose methodological end I'd like to tie up for those of you who are interested: how I calculate the vote shares of first-time candidates. This year, that's Chipper Jones, Thome, Vizquel, <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rolensc01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Scott Rolen</a></strong>, <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/jonesan01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Andruw Jones</a></strong>, <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/damonjo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Johnny Damon</a></strong>, and <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/santajo02.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Johan Santana</a></strong>.<br />
<br />
Without previous vote history to go off, my model does the next best thing for these players: it looks at which other candidate on the ballot correlates most strongly with—or against—them. If New Candidate X shares many of the same public voters with Old Candidate Y, then we can be fairly sure that the two will also drop or rise in tandem among private ballots. For example, Vizquel's support correlates most strongly with opposition to Bonds: as of Monday night, just 21% of known Bonds voters had voted for Vizquel, but 49% of non-Bonds voters had. Holding those numbers steady, I use my model's final prediction of the number of Bonds voters to figure out Vizquel's final percentage as well.<br />
<br />
Here are the other ballot rookies' closest matches: <br />
<ul><li>Chipper voters correlate best with Bonds voters, though not super strongly, with the result that Chipper is expected to lose a little bit of ground on private ballots.</li>
<li>Thome voters have a strong negative correlation with <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=ramirma02,ramire009man&search=Manny+Ramirez&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Manny Ramírez</a></strong> voters, so Thome is expected to gain ground in private balloting.</li>
<li>Rolen voters correlate well with <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/walkela01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Larry Walker</a></strong> voters, giving Rolen a slight boost among private voters.</li>
<li>Andruw voters are negatively correlated with <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kentje01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Jeff Kent</a></strong> voters; in fact, no one has voted for both men. This gives Andruw a tiny bump in private balloting.</li>
<li>It's a very small sample, but public Damon voters and public Bonds voters have zero overlap. Damon gets a decent-sized private-ballot bonus because of that.</li>
<li>Santana voters are also inclined to vote for <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/sheffga01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Gary Sheffield</a></strong> at high rates, although small-sample caveats apply. Therefore, Santana gets a slight boost in the private projections.</li>
</ul><br />
Finally, anyone with one or zero public votes is judged to be a non-serious candidate. Every year, one or two writers casts a misguided ballot for a <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wakefti01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Tim Wakefield</a></strong> or a <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/anderga01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Garret Anderson</a></strong>. There's little use in trying to predict these truly random events, so all of these players—including <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/moyerja01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Jamie Moyer</a></strong> this year—have an Adjustment Factor of zero.)Unknownnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8280420876387355520.post-38387984357846342762018-01-03T11:25:00.001-05:002018-03-15T09:53:50.107-04:00State of the State Schedule 2018Got any New Year's resolutions? Fifty governors do too. This is the time of the year when each state's chief executive gives his or her State of the State address, setting forth an ambitious (usually too ambitious) agenda for the year ahead. As we head into an election year that could usher in massive changes to state government, it's worth paying attention to the issues that those elections will be fought around. To that end, as Baseballot has provided <a href="http://baseballot.blogspot.com/2017/01/state-of-state-schedule-2017.html" target="_blank">every</a> <a href="http://baseballot.blogspot.com/2016/01/state-of-state-schedule-2016.html" target="_blank">dang</a> <a href="http://baseballot.blogspot.com/2015/01/state-of-state-schedule-2015.html" target="_blank">year</a> <a href="http://baseballot.blogspot.com/2014/01/state-of-state-schedule-2014.html" target="_blank">since</a> <a href="http://baseballot.blogspot.com/2013/01/state-of-state-schedule-2013.html" target="_blank">2013</a>, here is a full schedule of 2018's State of the State speeches. As each date passes, links will be added to the transcript of each speech; dates will also be updated as new orations are announced.<br />
<br />
<b>Alabama:</b> <a href="https://governor.alabama.gov/remarks-speeches/2018-state-of-the-state-address/" target="_blank">January 9 at 6:30pm CT</a><br />
<b>Alaska:</b> <a href="https://gov.alaska.gov/wp-content/uploads/sites/5/2018-State-of-the-State.pdf" target="_blank">January 18 at 7pm AKT</a><br />
<b>Arizona:</b> <a href="https://azgovernor.gov/governor/news/2018/01/arizona-state-state-2018" target="_blank">January 8 at 2pm MT</a><br />
<b>Arkansas:</b> No speech in even-numbered years<br />
<b>California:</b> <a href="https://www.gov.ca.gov/news.php?id=20150" target="_blank">January 25 at 10am PT</a><br />
<b>Colorado:</b> <a href="https://www.colorado.gov/governor/sites/default/files/2018_state_of_the_state_speech.pdf" target="_blank">January 11 at 11am MT</a><br />
<b>Connecticut:</b> <a href="http://portal.ct.gov/Office-of-the-Governor/Press-Room/Speeches/Governor-Dannel-P-Malloys-2018-State-of-the-State-Address" target="_blank">February 7 at noon ET</a><br />
<b>Delaware:</b> <a href="https://medium.com/@JohnCarneyDE/governor-carneys-2018-state-of-the-state-address-e5ea7bb1e287" target="_blank">January 18 at 2pm ET</a> (State of the State); <a href="https://livestream.com/StateofDelaware/GovBudgetFY19" target="_blank">January 25 at 1pm ET</a> (budget address)<br />
<b>Florida:</b> <a href="https://www.flgov.com/2018/01/09/governor-rick-scotts-2018-state-of-the-state-address/" target="_blank">January 9 at 11am ET</a><br />
<b>Georgia:</b> <a href="https://gov.georgia.gov/press-releases/2018-01-11/deal’s-state-state-address-‘orchards-opportunity’" target="_blank">January 11 at 11am ET</a><br />
<b>Hawaii:</b> <a href="https://governor.hawaii.gov/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/2018-Gov-Ige-STATE-OF-THE-STATE.pdf" target="_blank">January 22 at 10am HAT</a><br />
<b>Idaho:</b> <a href="https://gov.idaho.gov/mediacenter/speeches/sp_2018/State%20of%20the%20State%202018.pdf" target="_blank">January 8 at 1pm MT</a><br />
<b>Illinois:</b> <a href="https://www2.illinois.gov/IISNews/15319-State_of_the_State_Address_2018.pdf" target="_blank">January 31 at noon CT</a> (State of the State); <a href="https://www2.illinois.gov/Pages/news-item.aspx?ReleaseID=15361" target="_blank">February 14 at noon CT</a> (budget address)<br />
<b>Indiana:</b> <a href="http://www.in.gov/gov/files/2018_Public_StateoftheState_FINAL.pdf" target="_blank">January 9 at 7pm ET</a><br />
<b>Iowa:</b> <a href="https://governor.iowa.gov/2018/01/gov-reynolds-delivers-condition-of-the-state-address" target="_blank">January 9 at 10am CT</a><br />
<b>Kansas:</b> <a href="http://www.cjonline.com/news/state-government/2018-01-09/here-s-full-text-2018-state-state-speech-gov-sam-brownback" target="_blank">January 9 at 5pm CT</a> (Brownback State of the State); <a href="https://governor.kansas.gov/governor-jeff-colyers-swearing-in-address/" target="_blank">January 31 at 3pm CT</a> (Colyer inaugural); <a href="https://governor.kansas.gov/governor-jeff-colyers-joint-address/" target="_blank">February 7 at 3pm CT</a> (Colyer joint address)<br />
<b>Kentucky:</b> <a href="https://ketorg.cdn.ket.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/2018-Bevin-budget-speech.pdf?_ga=2.102990601.808516018.1517930810-1238189224.1485811080" target="_blank">January 16 at 7pm ET</a><br />
<b>Louisiana:</b> <a href="http://gov.louisiana.gov/news/gov-edwards-2018-special-session-remarks" target="_blank">February 19 at 5pm CT</a> (special-session address); <a href="http://gov.louisiana.gov/news/gov-edwards-2018-regular-session-remarks" target="_blank">March 12 at 1pm CT</a> (State of the State)<br />
<b>Maine:</b> <a href="http://www.maine.gov/tools/whatsnew/index.php?topic=Gov_Speeches&id=787933&v=article2011" target="_blank">February 13 at 7pm ET</a><br />
<b>Maryland:</b> <a href="http://governor.maryland.gov/2018/02/02/2018-state-of-the-state-address/" target="_blank">January 31 at noon ET</a><br />
<b>Massachusetts:</b> <a href="https://www.mass.gov/news/governor-baker-delivers-third-state-of-the-commonwealth-address" target="_blank">January 23 at 7pm ET</a><br />
<b>Michigan:</b> <a href="http://www.michigan.gov/documents/snyder/2018_Michigan_State_of_the_State_Transcript_612009_7.pdf" target="_blank">January 23 at 7pm ET</a><br />
<b>Minnesota:</b> <a href="https://mn.gov/governor/blog/?id=330481" target="_blank">March 14 at 7pm CT</a><br />
<b>Mississippi:</b> <a href="https://www.clarionledger.com/story/news/politics/2018/01/09/text-bryants-state-state-address/1018569001/" target="_blank">January 9 at 5pm CT</a><br />
<b>Missouri:</b> <a href="https://governor.mo.gov/news/archive/governor-eric-greitens-2018-state-state" target="_blank">January 10 at 7pm CT</a><br />
<b>Montana:</b> No speech in even-numbered years<br />
<b>Nebraska:</b> <a href="https://governor.nebraska.gov/press/governor-ricketts-state-state-address-1" target="_blank">January 10 at 10am CT</a><br />
<b>Nevada:</b> No speech in even-numbered years<br />
<b>New Hampshire:</b> <a href="https://www.governor.nh.gov/news-media/speeches/state-of-state-2018.htm" target="_blank">February 15 at 10am ET</a><br />
<b>New Jersey:</b> <a href="https://www.politico.com/story/2018/01/09/full-text-gov-chris-christies-farewell-state-of-the-state-address-2018-329602" target="_blank">January 9 at 3pm ET</a> (Christie State of the State); <a href="http://nj.gov/governor/news/addresses/docs/Governor%20Phil%20Murphy%20-%20Inaugural%20Address%20-%202018.pdf" target="_blank">January 16 at 11am ET</a> (Murphy inaugural); <a href="http://nj.gov/governor/news/addresses/approved/20180313_budget.shtml" target="_blank">March 13 at 2pm</a> (Murphy budget address)<br />
<b>New Mexico:</b> <a href="http://www.governor.state.nm.us/uploads/PressRelease/191a415014634aa89604e0b4790e4768/Governor_Susana_Martinez_Delivers_State_of_the_State_Address_5.pdf" target="_blank">January 16 at 1pm MT</a><br />
<b>New York:</b> <a href="https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/video-audio-rush-transcript-governor-cuomo-outlines-2018-agenda-realizing-promise-progressive" target="_blank">January 3 at 1pm ET</a> (State of the State); <a href="https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/video-audio-rush-transcript-governor-cuomo-outlines-fy-2019-budget-realizing-promise" target="_blank">January 16 at 1pm ET</a> (budget address)<br />
<b>North Carolina:</b> No speech in even-numbered years<br />
<b>North Dakota:</b> <a href="https://www.governor.nd.gov/sites/governor/files/documents/State%20of%20the%20State%20transcript%20clean.pdf" target="_blank">January 23 at 10am CT</a><br />
<b>Ohio:</b> <a href="http://www.governor.ohio.gov/Media-Room/Press-Releases/ArticleId/858/gov-john-r-kasichs-state-of-the-state-address-03-06-18" target="_blank">March 6 at 7pm ET</a><br />
<b>Oklahoma:</b> <a href="https://www.ok.gov/governor/documents/2-5-18%20FINAL%20Governor%20Mary%20Fallin%20State%20of%20the%20State.pdf" target="_blank">February 5 at 12:30pm CT</a><br />
<b>Oregon:</b> <a href="http://www.oregon.gov/gov/media/Pages/speeches/State-of-the-State-2018.aspx" target="_blank">February 5 at 9:30am PT</a><br />
<b>Pennsylvania:</b> <a href="https://www.governor.pa.gov/remarks-by-governor-wolf-at-2018-budget-address/" target="_blank">February 6 at 11:30am ET</a><br />
<b>Rhode Island:</b> <a href="http://www.governor.ri.gov/newsroom/speeches/2018/state-of-the-state.php" target="_blank">January 16 at 7pm ET</a><br />
<b>South Carolina:</b> <a href="http://governor.sc.gov/Newsroom/Pages/2018StateoftheState.aspx" target="_blank">January 24 at 7pm ET</a><br />
<b>South Dakota:</b> <a href="http://sd.gov/governor/docs/2017%20Budget%20Address.pdf" target="_blank">December 5 at 1pm CT</a> (budget address); <a href="https://www.dropbox.com/s/6jffmfmidh22fod/2018-01-09%20State%20of%20the%20State%20Transcript.docx?dl=0" target="_blank">January 9 at 1pm CT</a> (State of the State)<br />
<b>Tennessee:</b> <a href="https://www.tn.gov/content/dam/tn/governorsoffice-documents/governorsoffice-documents/sots-2018/2018_Haslam_SOTS_address.pdf" target="_blank">January 29 at 6pm CT</a><br />
<b>Texas:</b> No speech in even-numbered years<br />
<b>Utah:</b> <a href="https://governorblog.utah.gov/2018/01/governor-herberts-2018-state-of-the-state-address/" target="_blank">January 24 at 6:30pm MT</a><br />
<b>Vermont:</b> <a href="http://governor.vermont.gov/sites/scott/files/documents/Governor%20Phil%20Scott%20-%202018%20State%20of%20the%20State%20Address.pdf" target="_blank">January 4 at 2pm ET</a> (State of the State); <a href="http://governor.vermont.gov/governor-scotts-blog/BudgetAddressFY2019" target="_blank">January 23 at 1pm ET</a> (budget address)<br />
<b>Virginia:</b> <a href="https://bluevirginia.us/2018/01/38178" target="_blank">January 10 at 6:30pm ET</a> (McAuliffe State of the Commonwealth); <a href="https://governor.virginia.gov/newsroom/newsarticle?articleId=25191" target="_blank">January 13 at noon ET</a> (Northam inaugural); <a href="https://governor.virginia.gov/newsroom/newsarticle?articleId=25207" target="_blank">January 15 at 7pm ET</a> (Northam State of the Commonwealth)<br />
<b>Washington:</b> <a href="https://www.governor.wa.gov/sites/default/files/speeches/2018SotS.PDF" target="_blank">January 9 at noon PT</a><br />
<b>West Virginia:</b> <a href="http://governor.wv.gov/News/press-releases/2018/Pages/2018-West-Virginia-State-of-the-State-Address.aspx" target="_blank">January 10 at 7pm ET</a><br />
<b>Wisconsin:</b> <a href="https://walker.wi.gov/sites/default/files/speeches/transcript/Wisconsin_2018_SOTS_Address.pdf" target="_blank">January 24 at 3pm CT</a><br />
<b>Wyoming:</b> <a href="https://drive.google.com/file/d/1C6TFp2coeIWsxOEEe-kfOH9DNlH2Juh1/view" target="_blank">February 12 at 10am MT</a><br />
<br />
<b>National:</b> <a href="https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/president-donald-j-trumps-state-union-address/" target="_blank">January 30 at 9pm ET</a>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8280420876387355520.post-29314578900948090672017-12-31T10:14:00.002-05:002017-12-31T10:14:49.615-05:00Follow Every Election in 2018 with This CalendarIn the year that is now almost complete, people took a practically unprecedented interest in politics. Granted, it was generally concentrated on one side of the political spectrum, but in 2017 people demonstrated in our nation's capital, called their congressmen and congresswomen, and <i>voted.</i> Boy, did they vote. Turnout in inconveniently timed special elections for GA-06 and the U.S. Senate seat in Alabama surpassed that of even regularly scheduled midterm elections. And people—again, mainly on the left—who had never before felt a stake in their local races began religiously following legislative election results—<a href="http://beta.latimes.com/nation/la-na-danica-roem-transgender-20171108-story.html" target="_blank">even in districts all the way across the country</a>.<br />
<br />
This was a welcome development to me as a charter member of <a href="https://twitter.com/baseballot/lists/election-night" target="_blank">Election Night Twitter</a>. I've always enjoyed following minor special or local election results as idle entertainment on a Tuesday night, the same as I might sit down to watch a random A's-Twins game when my teams have an off day, but this year I was joined by so many engaged netizens eager to see "the Resistance" strike its next blow. Suddenly, it wasn't idle entertainment anymore; every week's elections became appointment viewing.<br />
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To keep to those appointments, I found I needed a calendar—so I started one. To my knowledge, no one has tried to create a comprehensive schedule of obscure elections before. Each state's election office has a listing of upcoming elections, but you have to visit 50 different websites to find them all. Fellow psephology nerds like <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2017/12/4/1721045/-Daily-Kos-Elections-2016-primary-calendar" target="_blank">Daily Kos Elections</a> and <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/State_legislative_special_elections,_2018" target="_blank">Ballotpedia</a>—both of whom I am indebted to in the compilation of my own calendar—have admirably assembled calendars of different types of elections but haven't taken the final, ultimate step.<br />
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So I present to you, election-obsessed people of the internet, <a href="https://calendar.google.com/calendar?cid=MHA4bG9uOWNmZG03NnU5dmdrcHBncTIzODhAZ3JvdXAuY2FsZW5kYXIuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbQ" target="_blank">this Google Calendar for all to view</a>. My calendar will track every federal, state, and local* election in the country from January 1, 2018, all the way through the midterm general election—and beyond. If you find that I'm missing any, please let me know <a href="https://twitter.com/baseballot" target="_blank">on Twitter</a>. Enjoy!<br />
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<iframe src="https://calendar.google.com/calendar/embed?src=0p8lon9cfdm76u9vgkppgq2388%40group.calendar.google.com&ctz=America%2FNew_York" style="border: 0" width="800" height="600" frameborder="0" scrolling="no"></iframe><br />
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*In localities of significant size; I draw the line at the Union City, Pennsylvania, school board.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8280420876387355520.post-30411394029992540812017-11-14T14:10:00.001-05:002017-11-14T14:10:51.406-05:00Power to the Max: My National League Award PicksLast night, <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/judgeaa01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Aaron Judge</a></strong> and <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bellico01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Cody Bellinger</a></strong> were named the 2017 Rookies of the Year by the Baseball Writers' Association of America (BBWAA). They were virtually incontestable picks—but the rest of the awards-reveal week won't be nearly as clear-cut. Back in September, I agonized over my own picks for the National League's top performances when voting for those same awards for the BBWAA's digital shadow cabinet, the Internet Baseball Writers' Association of America (IBWAA). Here, preemptively, is why the real awards voters are wrong. (You can read my <a href="http://baseballot.blogspot.com/2017/11/judging-aaronand-my-other-american.html" target="_blank">picks for the American League here</a>.) <br />
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<h2>Reliever of the Year</h2><br />
1. <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/janseke01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Kenley Jansen</a></strong><br />
2. <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/knebeco01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Corey Knebel</a></strong><br />
3. <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/n/neshepa01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Pat Neshek</a></strong><br />
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This IBWAA-only award is in perennial danger of being hijacked by gaudy save totals, but, happily, in this case, the league leader in saves is also the best reliever in baseball. Not only did Kenley Jansen shut the door 41 times for the Dodgers, but he led all qualified relievers in strikeout rate (42.3%) and was one-tenth of a percentage point away from doing so in walk rate (2.7%). If you strike dudes out and don't walk them, you're going to be very, very good—like 1.32 ERA good, also tops in the circuit. Jansen also crushes all comers—pitchers or hitters—in WPA (5.33), an important stat for a situation-based reliever.<br />
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Brewers closer Corey Knebel is the only other NL pitcher in Jansen's league when it comes to strikeouts (40.8%), but he also had a huge Achilles heel: his walk rate (12.9%). By contrast, Phillies-to-Rockies tradee Pat Neshek sported the stingiest walk rate of them all (2.6%) but a more mortal 29.4% strikeout rate. By K/BB ratio, Neshek blows Knebel out of the water (11.50 to 3.15), but the less denominator-skewed K−BB% stat gives Knebel a 27.8–26.8% advantage. Neshek also led in WHIP (0.87 to 1.16) and ERA (1.59 to 1.78) despite pitching much of the second half in Coors Field. So why did I opt for Knebel? Neshek's 4.2% HR/FB percentage implies he was quite fortunate in the dinger department, and his xFIP is accordingly 3.26—much higher than Knebel's 2.97.<br />
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There were plenty of runners-up for this category, most notably <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bradlar01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Archie Bradley</a></strong> and <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/riverfe01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Felipe Rivero</a></strong>, but Bradley left a lot to be desired going by true skill (his 1.73 ERA masked an unremarkable 3.71 DRA), and Rivero benefited from a .234 BABIP.<br />
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<h2>Rookie of the Year</h2><br />
1. <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bellico01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Cody Bellinger</a></strong><br />
2. <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/dejonpa01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Paul DeJong</a></strong><br />
3. <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/marquge01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">German Márquez</a></strong><br />
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Cody Bellinger (.933 OPS, 39 home runs, 4.0 FanGraphs WAR) was an easy pick here. Between him and honorable mention <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/barneau01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Austin Barnes</a></strong> (whom I would've ranked fourth) plus Rookie of the Year <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/seageco01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Corey Seager</a></strong> and <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/maedake01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Kenta Maeda</a></strong> last year, the modern Dodgers are debuting a streak of rookie talent reminiscent of the <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/karroer01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Eric Karros</a></strong>–<strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/piazzmi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Mike Piazza</a></strong>–<strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=mondera02,mondera01&search=Raul+Mondesi&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Raúl Mondesí</a></strong>–<strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/n/nomohi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Hideo Nomo</a></strong>–<strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hollato01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Todd Hollandsworth</a></strong> run of the 1990s. Cardinals middle infielder Paul DeJong—best known for hitting the foul ball <a href="http://beta.latimes.com/sports/sportsnow/la-sp-chris-christie-foul-ball-20170719-story.html" target="_blank">caught by New Jersey Governor Chris Christie</a>—racked up 3.0 WAR and 25 home runs, making him a comfortable choice for second.<br />
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At 2.2 WAR in just 50 games, Phillies wunderkind <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=hoskin000rhy&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Rhys Hoskins</a></strong> was awesome but didn't have enough at-bats to justify stiffing DeJong or my eventual number-three vote, German Márquez. The Rockies rookie was hated by Baseball Prospectus (who gave him a negative WARP!), but his FanGraphs WAR (2.4) matched Barnes's, and his Baseball Reference WAR (3.1) wasn't all that far behind Bellinger's. Despite a 4.39 ERA, he pitched 14% better than the average 2017 pitcher for 162 innings; it's rare for a rookie to be a solid contributor all season long.<br />
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<h2>Manager of the Year</h2><br />
1. <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=blackbu02,blackbu01&search=Bud+Black&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Bud Black</a></strong><br />
2. <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=roberda07,roberda06,roberda05,roberda03&search=Dave+Roberts&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Dave Roberts</a></strong><br />
3. <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/greenan01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Andy Green</a></strong><br />
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There are so many more deserving candidates for Manager of the Year in the NL than the AL. Bud Black led Colorado to a playoff berth on the strength of their <i>pitching</i> (a 90 ERA−, the best in Rockies history), previously believed to be an impossible feat. That is surely a testament to this former pitching coach, who also managed his team to a great record in one-run games (21–14). Dave Roberts adeptly juggled playing-time dilemmas in his outfield and at second base, and he righted the ship after a rough stretch that set off a panic in Chávez Ravine. Immediately after losing 16 of 17 games in late August/early September, the Dodgers recovered to go 12–6 over the final few weeks. <br />
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The surprise on my ballot is Andy Green. I appreciate how Green has used his team's suckitude to <a href="https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/despite-another-early-exit-for-padres-andy-green-could-be-baseballs-next-it-manager/" target="_blank">experiment with unorthodox strategies</a>, like shifting and multi-inning reliever usage. Something he did worked, as the 71–91 Padres outperformed their Pythagorean record (57–105) by more than any other team in baseball. <br />
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That's three picks, but there are two other NL skippers who would've cracked my ballot had they had the fortune to manage in the AL. <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lovulto01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Torey Lovullo</a></strong> was clearly a boon to the Diamondbacks, but I hesitated when I saw that they still underperformed their Pythagorean record by five wins. And <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/counscr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Craig Counsell</a></strong>—he of the <a href="https://imgur.com/GpX4tTe" target="_blank">painfully erect batting stance</a>—led the surprise Brewers to be the last team eliminated.<br />
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<h2>Cy Young</h2><br />
1. <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/scherma01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Max Scherzer</a></strong><br />
2. <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/strasst01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Stephen Strasburg</a></strong><br />
3. <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/greinza01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Zack Greinke</a></strong><br />
4. <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kershcl01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Clayton Kershaw</a></strong><br />
5. <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/degroja01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Jacob deGrom</a></strong><br />
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NL Cy Young is one of those awards that everyone acknowledges is close but everyone also acknowledges there's an obvious correct choice. Therefore, I won't be surprised if Max Scherzer wins the thing unanimously on Wednesday night. At first glance, Scherzer appears to be neck and neck with his Washington teammate, Stephen Strasburg: ERAs of 2.51/2.52, xFIPs of 3.28/3.27. But Scherzer, befitting his reputation as a workhorse, pitched more than 25 more innings. He creates more distance when you note that he was the league's most dominant strikeout pitcher, with a 34.4% strikeout rate and a 15.5% swinging-strike rate. No wonder Baseball Prospectus gives him a 2.26 DRA (Strasburg's is 2.93) and a wide lead in WARP (7.41 to 5.95) over Jacob deGrom.<br />
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After Scherzer, Baseball Prospectus likes deGrom and Zack Greinke the best, while Baseball Reference ranks <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gonzagi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Gio González</a></strong> second in WAR among National Leaguers. But those three all had ERAs of at least 3.20, so it's clear that Strasburg is just being penalized for the three starts he missed due to injury. He is, though, second to Scherzer in FanGraphs WAR (5.6), the version that is the closest summary of the fielding-independent-pitching factors that I favor when considering Cy Young Awards. <br />
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Greinke slots in at third place, where he also ranks in FanGraphs WAR (5.1) and Baseball Reference WAR (6.1) if we ignore González. Despite that site's esteem for the Nationals southpaw, I just couldn't see a way that González was among my top five NL pitchers. His excellent run prevention (a 2.92 ERA) was not fully attributable to his actual pitching skills (a pedestrian 8.42/3.54 K/BB ratio; a 3.93 FIP). In the same way, but for opposite reasons, I disregarded FanGraphs WAR's own outlier, Brewer <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/n/nelsoji02.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Jimmy Nelson</a></strong>. Nelson's 4.9 WAR was due to some significant revisionist history on the saber-site's part, dismissing many of his 75 runs allowed as products of bad luck. They may well have been, but no other site saw in Nelson (owner of a 3.58 DRA) what FanGraphs did.<br />
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Like his 2016, Clayton Kershaw's 2017 was difficult to pigeonhole. The Dodgers ace missed around five starts with a bad back, but he put up characteristically superb stats when he did pitch, including a 2.31 ERA and a league-leading 6.73 K/BB ratio. Yet, very uncharacteristically, he didn't pitch all that well beneath that veneer: he mustered just a 3.30 DRA thanks to some good luck on balls in play (.267 BABIP) and runners left on base (87.4% LOB%). That dropped what could have been a Cy-winning campaign with more innings and some better fundamentals to fourth place. Finally, deGrom rounded out my ballot. With what qualified as a workhorse season for the New York Mets combined with a strong 4.05 K/BB ratio, Baseball Prospectus makes a strong case for deGrom being one of the best pitchers in the league. But he flunks the eyeball test, with an ERA+ (119) a lot less impressive than Greinke's (149) or Kershaw's (180).<br />
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<h2>MVP</h2><br />
1. <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/stantmi03.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Giancarlo Stanton</a></strong><br />
2. <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/vottojo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Joey Votto</a></strong><br />
3. <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/scherma01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Max Scherzer</a></strong><br />
4. <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/blackch02.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Charlie Blackmon</a></strong><br />
5. <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bryankr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Kris Bryant</a></strong><br />
6. <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/arenano01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Nolan Arenado</a></strong><br />
7. <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rendoan01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Anthony Rendon</a></strong><br />
8. <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/greinza01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Zack Greinke</a></strong><br />
9. <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gonzagi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Gio González</a></strong><br />
10. <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/goldspa01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Paul Goldschmidt</a></strong><br />
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This messy MVP race makes the other NL awards look like the pictures of consensus. According to FanGraphs WAR (for pitchers, RA9-WAR added to their offensive and defensive WAR, for a picture of the whole player), Max Scherzer is the MVP with 7.3 WAR. At Baseball Prospectus, it's Giancarlo Stanton (8.55 WARP) in the lead by a distance roughly equivalent to one of his monster home runs. And at Baseball Reference, Scherzer, Stanton, and Joey Votto are all effectively tied at 7.6 (7.5 for Votto, but WAR is hardly an exact science).<br />
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As in the American League, I went to WPA/LI—a.k.a. the stat that best sums up all the times you contributed to helping your team win—to break the tie. By Baseball Reference, Votto leads Stanton 6.4 to 6.2, but at FanGraphs, Stanton has a clearer lead of 7.00 to 6.32. In the end, Stanton also ranks higher than Votto according to all three flavors of WAR, so he is my pick by a hair.<br />
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What about Scherzer, for whom a strong case can be made to be number one? His lead in RA9-WAR is effectively nullified by his deficit in WARP, so he doesn't clearly stand out from the pack of hitters to me. And then there's the National's WPA/LI of 3.05 (FanGraphs version, subtracting his negative hitting value from his positive pitching value)—good for a starting pitcher, but in the end he just didn't provide the constant jolts to his team's chances of winning that Stanton did for the Marlins. <br />
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The rest of the league didn't quite measure up to those three. FanGraphs ranked Kris Bryant (6.7) and Anthony Rendon (6.9) above Votto, giving them extra credit for playing the more challenging position of third base. However, Votto had more Defensive Runs Saved (11) than either Bryant (2) or Rendon (7), so a defensive penalty for him seems perverse. Rendon falls particularly far in my ranking because of his 3.29 WPA/LI; Bryant's was 5.20, third in the league.<br />
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Meanwhile, Baseball Prospectus's pet case was Charlie Blackmon, who they convinced me was at least Bryant's equal. The Rockies outfielder ranks just behind Votto in FanGraphs WAR (6.5) and is a close match for Bryant in other categories. Baseball Reference says the Rockies outfielder has the edge in WPA/LI (5.3 to 4.5); FanGraphs says the Cub does (5.20 to 4.88). But BP seemed more convinced that Blackmon was better than Bryant (7.70 vs. 6.67 WARP) than the other two sites were that Bryant was better than Blackmon (just a fraction of a win separated them at both FanGraphs and Baseball Reference). Blackmon also took 60 more plate appearances than Bryant. <br />
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Blackmon's Colorado teammate, Nolan Arenado, similarly gets a boost on my ballot because he is beloved by Baseball Reference (7.2 WAR), but unlike Blackmon, there is a wide gulf between him and Bryant in FanGraphs WAR (Arenado's is 5.6) and WPA/LI (3.43). Although Arenado is obviously an asset with the glove, his hitting (129 wRC+) is both easier to quantify and less impressive than Blackmon's 141 wRC+ and Bryant's 146. Arenado does get the nod over Rendon, though, as FanGraphs WAR is the only measure of value that believes Rendon was superior.<br />
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My last few slots give love to the pitchers—and specifically those who were valuable to their team in ways beyond balls and strikes. Zack Greinke boosted his overall value (6.70 WARP) with good defense, while Gio González, despite mediocre peripheral pitching stats, was valuable enough when paired with his <i>team</i> (i.e., his defense) that he prevented enough runs to tie Blackmon in RA9-WAR (6.5). However, his 1.25 WPA/LI revealed that he didn't actually boost the Nationals' chances of winning all that much. Finally, I fit Paul Goldschmidt onto my ballot in order to honor his contributions to win probability (4.3 per Baseball Reference, in fifth place) and his 6.36 WARP (good for seventh), although I could have just as easily gone with my top honorable mention, <strong><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/turneju01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Justin Turner</a></strong>. Two of my other Cy Young votes, Clayton Kershaw and Stephen Strasburg, might also have shown up here, but as with Turner, I ultimately decided that their missed playing time was more of a disqualification in an MVP race. To help your team, you've got to be on the field.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8280420876387355520.post-68741088087542074002017-11-13T15:10:00.000-05:002017-11-13T15:39:47.153-05:00Judging Aaron: My American League Award PicksAnother baseball season is in the books—and it was a weird one. Between <a href="https://www.si.com/mlb/2017/09/25/aaron-judge-rookie-home-run-record-yankees" target="_blank">record-breaking</a> <a href="https://www.si.com/mlb/2017/09/22/dodgers-cody-bellinger-breaks-rookie-home-run-record" target="_blank">rookies</a>, a total <a href="http://www.sportingnews.com/mlb/news/friday-mlb-scores-highlights-astros-100-wins-red-sox-rockies-brewers/18ybludipm2nd1kmfrrksz5vty" target="_blank">lack of parity</a>, a rush on <a href="https://www.si.com/mlb/2017/08/09/rick-porcello-immaculate-inning-red-sox" target="_blank">immaculate innings</a>, and, of course, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/19/sports/baseball/home-runs-record-single-season.html?_r=0" target="_blank">too many damn home runs</a>, there was plenty to gawk at in MLB in 2017. This week, the Baseball Writers' Association of America (BBWAA) recognizes the most eye-popping feats of all with its <a href="https://bbwaa.com/17-award-home/" target="_blank">end-of-season awards</a>, voted on by the beat writers who followed each team all season long. Meanwhile, the <a href="https://ibwaa.com/about/" target="_blank"><i>Internet</i> Baseball Writers' Association of America</a> (IBWAA) holds a parallel vote for the rest of us schlubs. Here's how I voted in that election.<br />
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<h2>Reliever of the Year</h2><br />
1. <b><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kimbrcr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Craig Kimbrel</a></b><br />
2. <b><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/greench03.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Chad Green</a></b><br />
3. <b><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=millean01,miller014and&search=Andrew+Miller&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Andrew Miller</a></b><br />
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The one award given out by the IBWAA that the BBWAA doesn't bother with is Reliever of the Year. This year, that's to Craig Kimbrel's detriment. The Red Sox closer led all American League relievers who pitched at least 34 innings with a 1.43 ERA, a 1.42 FIP, and a 1.50 xFIP—that last one by a mile (at number two was <b><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=smithjo05,smithjo03&search=Joe+Smith&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Joe Smith</a></b>, 2.39). Kimbrel struck out almost exactly half of the batters he faced while keeping his walk rate at a paltry 5.5%. In short, there was no one hitters wanted to see less at the end of a game.<br />
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The Yankees' Chad Green, whom many of you may not have even heard of until the playoffs, edged out Andrew Miller for second place. While Miller had the edge in ERA (1.44 to 1.61), Green's peripheral stats were slightly better: he struck out 41.0% of batters and walked just 6.6%, while Miller struck out 38.9% and walked 8.6%. <br />
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<h2>Rookie of the Year</h2><br />
1. <b><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/judgeaa01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Aaron Judge</a></b><br />
2. <b><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/chapmma01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Matt Chapman</a></b><br />
3. <b><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hanigmi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Mitch Haniger</a></b><br />
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The easiest award of the year—if not the decade. Yankees sensation Aaron Judge hit more home runs this year than any rookie ever had in the history of this great game. Mitch Haniger (Seattle) and Matt Chapman (Oakland) were quite close for number two—it was the classic offense (Haniger's .282/.352/.491 line) vs. defense (Chapman's 19 Defensive Runs Saved) conundrum. I gave Chapman the nod because he played the harder position (third base) better. BBWAA finalist (and <a href="http://baseballot.blogspot.com/2017/04/predicting-2017-seasonamerican-league.html" target="_blank">my preseason prediction</a>) <b><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/beninan01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Andrew Benintendi</a></b> just didn't amass enough WAR (2.2, going by FanGraphs) to beat any of these three guys.<br />
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<h2>Manager of the Year</h2><br />
1. <b><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/francte01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Terry Francona</a></b><br />
2. <b><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hincha.01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">A.J. Hinch</a></b><br />
3. <b><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/y/yostne01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Ned Yost</a></b><br />
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The one award left where you have to go with your gut. I'm not a very big believer in giving managers the credit for analysts misreading a team at the beginning of the season (*cough* Twins *cough*), nor do I think that managers suddenly switch between "brilliant" and "dumb" when their team has a good or bad season. For my money, Terry Francona has emerged in recent years as the best manager in the Junior Circuit. He is beloved by his players, and his groundbreaking methods of using Andrew Miller—his best reliever—in non-save situations have drawn raves. This year, of course, he deserves at least a share of the credit for the Indians' 22-game winning streak.<br />
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Houston's A.J. Hinch is a safe second choice; he imported stat-savvy techniques from a front office that <a href="https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/report-some-astros-players-upset-over-mark-appel-promotion-bullpen/" target="_blank">hasn't always gotten along with its players</a> and made them work on the field. Obviously, he was also able to overcome some <a href="http://mlb.nbcsports.com/2017/08/11/josh-reddick-astros-down-in-the-dumps-about-team-standing-pat-at-trade-deadline/" target="_blank">slight clubhouse dissent</a> to win the World Series (although these awards, BBWAA and IBWAA, were all voted on before the start of the playoffs). As for Ned Yost... yeah, I'm surprised too, but his Royals went 25–16 in one-run games and outperformed their Pythagorean record by nine wins.<br />
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<h2>Cy Young</h2><br />
1. <b><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/klubeco01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Corey Kluber</a></b><br />
2. <b><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/salech01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Chris Sale</a></b><br />
3. <b><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/severlu01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Luis Severino</a></b><br />
4. <b><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/carraca01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Carlos Carrasco</a></b><br />
5. <b><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/verlaju01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Justin Verlander</a></b><br />
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Sometimes, the truth hurts. Chris Sale is undeniably one of the best pitchers of his generation—and yet he has never won a Cy Young Award. This season looked like it was going to be his year, until Corey Kluber (who won the award previously in 2014) turned on the jets in August and September. After August 1, he went 10–1 with a 1.42 ERA and a .492 opponents' OPS. He finished with a league-leading 2.25 ERA and 2.05 DRA (Baseball Prospectus's Deserved Run Average, the best indicator we have for what a pitcher's ERA "should" be, removing the effects of luck), and he crushed Sale 8.0 to 6.0 in the Baseball Reference WAR department. <br />
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You could still make the case for Sale—the Red Sox beat the Indian 7.7 to 7.3 in FanGraphs WAR mostly on the strength of his 12.93 K/9 (Kluber's was "only" 11.71) and slightly lower FIP (2.45 to 2.50). But ultimately I decided that voting for Sale would be interpreting the evidence selectively in order to get the answer I wanted to get. Sale's strikeout advantage nearly evaporates when you look at the more precise strikeout-percentage stat (Sale 36.2%, Kluber 34.1%), and Kluber's K/BB ratio is actually higher than Sale's (7.36 to 7.16). Moreover, FIP is a useful measure, but it's really just a blunt tool in assessing true pitcher performance—DRA is a far more refined statistic.<br />
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The battle for third place followed similar contours but was much more easily resolved. Despite similar peripheral stats (K/9 ratios in the 10s, BB/9s in the twos), Luis Severino posted a 2.98 ERA in a much tougher pitching environment than Carlos Carrasco twirled his 3.29. Severino's WHIP was also a skosh lower, 1.04 to 1.10, contributing to a 3.05 DRA (3.36 for Carrasco). Two of the three forms of WAR (FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus) agreed that Severino was more valuable.<br />
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I was really close to giving <b><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/archech01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Chris Archer</a></b> the last slot. By FanGraphs WAR, he deserved it—registering at fifth in the league behind the above four men with a 4.6 mark, half a win ahead of Justin Verlander. Archer appeared to best Verlander in nearly every peripheral stat, including a dramatically better K/BB ratio, 4.15 to 3.04. But while I believe strong pitching fundamentals should undergird a Cy Young case, I couldn't bring myself to totally ignore end results, and Archer's 4.07 ERA just wasn't Cy-worthy. I consoled myself when I saw that both Baseball Reference and Baseball Prospectus gave Verlander the edge in WAR/WARP. In fact, per Baseball Reference, Verlander's 6.4 WAR was second in the AL only to Kluber's. In a nice little feat of balance, my final ballot thus includes five of the top six finishers in pitching value according to all three major sites.<br />
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<h2>MVP</h2><br />
1. <b><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/judgeaa01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Aaron Judge</a></b><br />
2. <b><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/klubeco01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Corey Kluber</a></b><br />
3. <b><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/altuvjo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">José Altuve</a></b><br />
4. <b><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/troutmi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Mike Trout</a></b><br />
5. <b><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/salech01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Chris Sale</a></b><br />
6. <b><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=ramirjo01,ramirjo02,ramire018jos&search=Jose+Ramirez&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">José Ramírez</a></b><br />
7. <b><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/carraca01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Carlos Carrasco</a></b><br />
8. <b><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/severlu01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Luis Severino</a></b><br />
9. <b><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/verlaju01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Justin Verlander</a></b><br />
10. <b><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/correca01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Carlos Correa</a></b><br />
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Hoo boy, is there a lot to tease out here. Let's start with this: how the heck do you compare the six-foot-seven Aaron Judge to the five-foot-six José Altuve? According to the FanGraphs version of WAR, Judge has a small but perceptible lead, 8.2 to 7.5. According to Baseball Reference, though, it's the opposite: Altuve leads 8.3 to 8.1. As I often do, I broke the tie by going to the stat that comes closest to quantifying that pesky phrase, "most valuable": win probability. Judge had a 6.23 WPA/LI to Altuve's 4.59, indicating that, holding the leverage of their plate appearances constant, Judge's did more to increase his team's likelihood of winning. (Those numbers are from FanGraphs, but Baseball Reference agrees on the order.)<br />
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One problem: That pesky GOAT, Mike Trout, crushes both of them in that category. A not-unsizable part of me wanted to cast off my cloak of objectivity and lay my first-place vote at Trout's feet—his career-best 187 OPS+ made him indisputably the most valuable player on the field when he played. Ultimately, though, you can't just ignore the nearly 200 plate appearances he lost to injury. Just know I'm not happy about sticking him at fourth.<br />
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Then there's the debate everyone else seems to ignore: pitcher or hitter? Yup, both Corey Kluber and Chris Sale have a case for being better than any of the AL's position players this year. Kluber's 8.00 WARP from Baseball Prospectus leads the league, while Sale's 7.64 is second. FanGraphs and Baseball Reference put them more solidly in the muddle, though, and their WPA/LIs are far behind Judge's and Trout's. Kluber's 4.87 WPA/LI is better than Altuve's, however, which, along with his world-beating dominance in <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/warleaders.aspx?season=2017&team=al&type=1" target="_blank">FanGraphs's RA9-WAR</a> (<a href="http://baseballot.blogspot.com/2015/10/the-best-era-doesnt-mean-youre-best.html" target="_blank">the type of WAR I like to use for MVP voting</a>), is enough to give him second place. Sale's 3.77 WPA/LI and 6.1 Baseball Reference WAR (not even in the top nine) give me an excuse to honor Trout's peak excellence a little more than I otherwise would.<br />
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José Ramírez is an easy pick for sixth place; not in the above five's league, but clearly better than everyone else. After that it's pick your poison. The next-most deserving based on WPA/LI are the Carloses—Correa and Carrasco. By FanGraphs RA9-WAR, it's Carrasco and Justin Verlander. By regular FanGraphs WAR, it's <b><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lindofr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Francisco Lindor</a></b> and Luis Severino. By Baseball Reference WAR, it's <b><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/simmoan01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Andrelton Simmons</a></b> and <b><a rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank" href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bettsmo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-">Mookie Betts</a></b>. By WARP, it's Betts and Severino. The first two stats being my preferred ones for MVP, I therefore penciled in Carrasco, but then deferred to Severino given how close the two were for Cy Young. (I ranked them differently here because I believe Cy Young should assess pure pitching ability, while MVP is about the whole player, including defense, run-prevention outcomes, workload, and even hitting if applicable.) Then came Verlander and, squeezing onto the ballot despite missing 42 games with a torn thumb ligament, Correa, who, when he did play, increased his team's chances to win more than any other player remaining on the board.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8280420876387355520.post-45763653314818497102017-11-07T08:21:00.000-05:002017-11-09T10:12:23.856-05:00Your Complete Guide to Election Night 2017Tuesday marks the first regularly scheduled elections of the Trump era—and, probably in a related development, interest in this year's off-off-year campaigns has reached unprecedented highs. Democrats are eager to strike a blow for "the Resistance" by winning the high-profile Virginia gubernatorial race, but they also sit on the verge of taking <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/State_government_trifectas" target="_blank">complete trifecta control</a> of two more state governments (no small feat when they started the year with only six). Tonight's 214 legislative elections will be the <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1sJXNni-rTRwdw-48UAsF2MRkL_7emAylzOGtMIhugBs/edit#gid=1190931568" target="_blank">best bellwethers yet</a> of the 2018 midterms. Maine may become the first state in the nation to popularly vote to implement a key provision of Obamacare, or New York may decide to tear up its constitution and start from scratch. Some of the biggest cities in the country face stark choices between sending their city halls leftward or rightward—or choosing which vision for the future of the Democratic Party to put their faith in.<br />
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In all, 34 states will decide governorships, congressional seats, <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/2017_ballot_measures" target="_blank">ballot measures</a>, <a href="https://www.usmayors.org/elections/" target="_blank">mayor's offices</a>, <a href="http://baseballot.blogspot.com/2017/10/2017-downballot-race-ratings-for.html" target="_blank">constitutional offices</a>, <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/State_legislative_special_elections,_2017" target="_blank">legislative seats</a>, and much, much more. To help guide those who haven't been following these hyper-local campaigns but are interested in tracking them on election night, I've created this viewer's guide for Tuesday night. Sorted by poll-closing times (all times Eastern), it's a state-by-state rundown of what's on the ballot on November 7, 2017.<br />
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<h3>7pm ET</h3><br />
<b>Florida:</b> Municipal elections, including for <a href="http://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/community/miami-dade/article182637576.html" target="_blank">mayor of Miami</a> (<a href="http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/FL/Dade/71883/190282/en/summary.html" target="_blank">unofficial results</a>) and mayor of St. Petersburg (<a href="http://enr.votepinellas.com/FL/Pinellas/71891/190296/en/summary.html" target="_blank">unofficial results</a>), where the <a href="http://www.tampabay.com/news/politics/elections/in-fundraising-arms-race-rays-donate-another-50000-to-kriseman/2340782" target="_blank">Rays-supported</a> Democratic incumbent <a href="https://www.bizjournals.com/tampabay/news/2017/11/06/in-the-expensive-st-pete-mayors-race-latest-poll.html" target="_blank">faces a stiff Republican challenge</a>.<br />
<b>Georgia:</b> Special all-party primary elections in SD-06, SD-39, HD-04, HD-26, HD-42, HD-60, HD-89, HD-117, and HD-119 (<a href="http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2017/by_state/GA_Page_1107.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS" target="_blank">unofficial results</a>); municipal elections other than Atlanta's.<br />
<b>Massachusetts:</b> Municipal elections in <a href="https://www.sec.state.ma.us/ele/elemuniele/munieleidx.htm" target="_blank">four cities</a>.<br />
<b>New Hampshire:</b> State House special elections in Hillsborough County District 15 (<a href="http://sos.nh.gov/nhsos_content.aspx?id=8589969411" target="_blank">unofficial results</a>) and Sullivan County District 1 (<a href="http://sos.nh.gov/nhsos_content.aspx?id=8589969602" target="_blank">unofficial results</a>); most municipal elections, including a <a href="http://www.newhampshire.com/local-government/Mayoral-race-tops-ballot-choices-in-Manchester-11072017" target="_blank">Manchester mayoral race</a> that has <a href="http://www.concordmonitor.com/Biden-fuels-more-2020-speculation-with-Manchester-mayoral-race-endorsement-13521208" target="_blank">drawn some big names</a>.<br />
<b>South Carolina:</b> A special general election in HD-113 (<a href="https://www.scvotes.org/state-house-representatives-district-113-special-election" target="_blank">unofficial results</a>); municipal elections. <br />
<b>Virginia (<a href="http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2017/by_state/VA_Page_1107.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS" target="_blank">unofficial results</a>):</b> A <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/nov/07/virginia-governor-election-dan-gillespie-ralph-northam-political-landscape-trump" target="_blank">well-publicized governor's race</a>, but also <a href="http://baseballot.blogspot.com/2017/10/2017-downballot-race-ratings-for.html" target="_blank">close lieutenant governor and attorney general elections</a>; all 100 seats in the <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1sJXNni-rTRwdw-48UAsF2MRkL_7emAylzOGtMIhugBs/edit#gid=1190931568" target="_blank">House of Delegates</a>; municipal elections.<br />
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<h3>7:30pm ET</h3><br />
<b>North Carolina:</b> Municipal elections, including for <a href="http://www.newsobserver.com/news/local/counties/wake-county/article183052836.html" target="_blank">mayor of Raleigh</a> (<a href="http://er.ncsbe.gov/?election_dt=11/07/2017&county_id=92&office=ALL&contest=0" target="_blank">unofficial results</a>) and a <a href="http://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/politics-government/election/article182640971.html" target="_blank">close partisan contest</a> for mayor of Charlotte (<a href="http://er.ncsbe.gov/?election_dt=11/07/2017&county_id=60&office=ALL&contest=0" target="_blank">unofficial results</a>). <br />
<b>Ohio:</b> Two ballot issues, one to <a href="http://www.dispatch.com/news/20171105/victims-rights-concerns-at-root-of-issue-1" target="_blank">strengthen crime victims' rights</a> and another to <a href="http://www.dispatch.com/news/20171105/issue-2-turns-into-prescription-for-confusion" target="_blank">require the state to pay the same prices for prescription drugs</a> as the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (<a href="http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2017/by_state/OH_Page_1107.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS" target="_blank">unofficial results</a>); judicial and municipal elections, including mayoral races in <a href="http://www.cleveland.com/metro/index.ssf/2017/10/incumbent_frank_jackson_has_mo.html" target="_blank">Cleveland</a> (<a href="http://www.livevoterturnout.com/Cuy/LiveResults/en/Index_1.html" target="_blank">unofficial results</a>), <a href="https://www.cincinnati.com/story/news/politics-extra/2017/11/04/px-10-questions-cincinnati-mayoral-and-city-council-races-ahead-election-day/826187001/" target="_blank">Cincinnati</a> (<a href="http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/OH/Hamilton/71592/190161/Web01/en/summary.html" target="_blank">unofficial results</a>), and <a href="https://www.toledoblade.com/local/2017/11/05/Mayoral-candidates-make-final-election-appeals.html" target="_blank">Toledo</a> (<a href="http://www.livevoterturnout.com/Lucas/LiveResults/en/Index_1.html" target="_blank">unofficial results</a>).<br />
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<h3>8pm ET</h3><br />
<b>Connecticut (<a href="http://ctemspublic.pcctg.net/#/selectTown" target="_blank">unofficial results</a>):</b> <a href="http://www.courant.com/politics/hc-news-connecticut-local-elections-previe-20171102-story.html" target="_blank">Judicial and municipal elections</a>.<br />
<b>Georgia:</b> Municipal elections in Atlanta (<a href="http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2017/by_state/GA_Mayor_1107.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS" target="_blank">unofficial results</a>), where the battle to succeed Mayor Kasim Reed has <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/03/us/atlanta-mayor-race-civil-rights.html?_r=0" target="_blank">gotten divisive</a>.<br />
<b>Kansas:</b> Municipal elections across most of the state. <br />
<b>Maine (<a href="http://www.pressherald.com/2017-election-results/" target="_blank">unofficial results</a>):</b> Four ballot questions, including <a href="https://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/maine-voters-could-expand-health-care-to-70000-people-on-election-day_us_5a009b2ce4b04cdbeb3523bd" target="_blank">Question 2</a>, which would expand Medicaid in Maine after multiple vetoes by Governor Paul LePage; a special general election in HD-56; <a href="http://www.pressherald.com/2017/11/05/maines-off-year-election-tuesday-is-busier-than-usual/" target="_blank">municipal elections</a>, including one ballot initiative instituting rent control in Portland and another asking whether Maine's second- (Lewiston) and fifth- (Auburn) largest cities should merge.<br />
<b>Maryland:</b> Municipal elections in <a href="https://marylandmatters.org/2017/11/05/what-to-watch-for-in-maryland-this-election-day/" target="_blank">13 cities and towns</a>, including a <a href="http://www.capitalgazette.com/news/elections/ac-cn-general-election-lead-up-20171106-story.html" target="_blank">close mayoral election in Annapolis</a>.<br />
<b>Massachusetts:</b> State House special general elections in the First Berkshire District (<a href="http://berkshireeagle.com/stories/first-berkshire-district-state-representative-results,523901" target="_blank">unofficial results</a>) and Third Essex District (<a href="http://www.eagletribune.com/news/updated-essex-third-district-results/article_62eca08c-c417-11e7-a505-a395126b7851.html" target="_blank">unofficial results</a>); a State Senate special primary election in the Worcester and Middlesex District; municipal elections in <a href="https://www.sec.state.ma.us/ele/elemuniele/munieleidx.htm" target="_blank">69 cities and towns</a> (<a href="http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2017/by_state/MA_Page_1107.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS" target="_blank">unofficial results</a>), including a <a href="https://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2017/11/02/sleepy-mayoral-campaign-nears-its-end-boston/qPcEecMNoSaXa5K9pBf7OJ/story.html" target="_blank">sleepy race for mayor of Boston</a>.<br />
<b>Michigan (<a href="https://www.clickondetroit.com/news/election-results/november-7-2017-michigan-general-election-results" target="_blank">unofficial results</a>):</b> Special general elections <a href="http://www.freep.com/story/news/politics/2017/11/05/two-state-house-seats-up-grabs-tuesdays-general-election/830026001/" target="_blank">on opposite ends of the state</a>, in HD-01 and HD-109; municipal elections across most of the state, including for <a href="https://www.clickondetroit.com/news/elections/incumbent-challenged-by-state-senator-in-detroit-mayor-race_1" target="_blank">mayor</a> and <a href="https://wdet.org/posts/2017/11/06/86025-the-detroit-clerks-race/" target="_blank">city clerk</a> of Detroit and an <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2017/11/06/us/flint-mayor-karen-weaver-recall-water.html" target="_blank">attempted recall of the mayor of Flint</a>.<br />
<b>Mississippi:</b> Nonpartisan special elections in SD-10, HD-38, and HD-54; judicial and municipal elections.<br />
<b>Missouri:</b> Special general elections in SD-08, HD-23, and HD-151 (<a href="http://enr.sos.mo.gov/default.aspx" target="_blank">unofficial results</a>); municipal elections, including referenda on <a href="http://www.kansascity.com/news/politics-government/article182657421.html" target="_blank">building a new terminal at Kansas City International Airport</a> and increasing St. Louis's sales tax to <a href="http://www.stltoday.com/news/local/crime-and-courts/fate-of-sales-tax-hike-for-st-louis-police-firefighter/article_30b63af7-fa37-56a4-83bd-c426d7b600b4.html" target="_blank">give raises to police and firefighters</a>.<br />
<b>New Hampshire:</b> Municipal elections in cities with extended voting hours.<br />
<b>New Jersey (<a href="http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2017/by_state/NJ_Page_1107.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS" target="_blank">unofficial results</a>):</b> A <a href="http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/jersey-governors-race/story?id=50951295" target="_blank">gubernatorial/lieutenant-gubernatorial race</a> that's <a href="http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2017/11/heres_the_voting_bloc_that_could_cost_guadagno_the.html" target="_blank">looking like a blowout</a>; all 40 <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1sJXNni-rTRwdw-48UAsF2MRkL_7emAylzOGtMIhugBs/edit#gid=896886298" target="_blank">State Senate</a> seats; all 80 <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1sJXNni-rTRwdw-48UAsF2MRkL_7emAylzOGtMIhugBs/edit#gid=1397587647" target="_blank">General Assembly</a> seats; two <a href="https://www.njtvonline.org/news/video/breakdown-years-ballot-questions-mean/" target="_blank">ballot questions</a> on fiscal issues; municipal elections, including a mayoral race in Jersey City that's been <a href="http://www.nj.com/hudson/index.ssf/2017/09/depositions_allege_fulop_aides_tried_to_steer_cont.html" target="_blank">rocked by scandal</a> and elections for <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/education/wp/2017/11/02/deport-racist-campaign-mailers-target-asian-school-board-candidates/?utm_term=.038d91e3eb6f" target="_blank">Edison school board</a> and <a href="https://www.insidernj.com/racist-flyer-lands-hoboken-days-tuesdays-election/" target="_blank">Hoboken mayor</a> that will test whether racist campaign tactics are effective.<br />
<b>North Dakota:</b> A <a href="http://www.grandforksherald.com/news/4345690-backers-grand-forks-sales-tax-hike-confident-vote-nears" target="_blank">local referendum</a> to raise the sales tax in Grand Forks.<br />
<b>Pennsylvania (<a href="http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2017/by_state/PA_Page_1107.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS" target="_blank">unofficial results</a>):</b> A <a href="http://www.philly.com/philly/news/politics/state/pennsylvania-property-tax-reform-ballot-question-referendum-20170929.html" target="_blank">state constitutional amendment</a> to allow the legislature to allow local governments to exempt residents from property taxes; judicial elections, including for three state Supreme Court seats that <a href="http://www.cityandstatepa.com/content/outspent-2-1-pa-dems-launch-last-minute-judicial-ad-blitz" target="_blank">some angrily claim that Democrats have ignored</a>; municipal elections, including a <a href="https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2017/11/larry-krasner-philadelphia-da/544937/" target="_blank">nationally watched race</a> for Philadelphia district attorney and the <a href="http://www.mcall.com/news/local/allentown/mayor/mc-nws-allentown-mayor-race-20171031-story.html" target="_blank">tight re-election campaign</a> of Allentown's indicted mayor. <br />
<b>Rhode Island:</b> Local ballot initiatives in East Providence, Lincoln, and Scituate.<br />
<b>Tennessee:</b> An uncontested special primary election in SD-17 (<a href="http://www.elections.tn.gov/results.php" target="_blank">unofficial results</a>); municipal elections.<br />
<b>Texas:</b> Municipal elections across most of the state, including <a href="http://abc13.com/politics/your-election-day-2017-ballot-guide/2611148/" target="_blank">six city propositions in Houston</a> (<a href="http://www.harrisvotes.com/ElectionNight/ENR.aspx?L=E" target="_blank">unofficial results</a>).<br />
<br />
<h3>9pm ET</h3><br />
<b>Arizona:</b> Municipal elections.<br />
<b>Colorado (<a href="http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/CO/71802/Web02-state/#/">unofficial results</a>):</b> <a href="http://www.denverpost.com/2017/11/07/colorado-election-day/" target="_blank">Municipal</a> <a href="https://www.cpr.org/news/story/colorado-ballot-measures-and-races-to-watch-on-election-day-2017" target="_blank">elections</a>, including for the Douglas County school board, the latest of Colorado's local school elections to be turned into a <a href="https://www.cpr.org/news/story/there-are-a-lot-eyes-on-dougco-s-off-year-school-board-election" target="_blank">national referendum on education reform</a>.<br />
<b>Kansas:</b> Municipal elections along the western edge of the state. <br />
<b>Michigan (<a href="https://www.clickondetroit.com/news/election-results/november-7-2017-michigan-general-election-results" target="_blank">unofficial results</a>):</b> Municipal elections in parts of the Upper Peninsula.<br />
<b>Minnesota (<a href="http://electionresults.sos.state.mn.us/20171107" target="_blank">unofficial results</a>):</b> Municipal elections, including for <a href="http://www.startribune.com/more-than-1-8-million-pours-into-minneapolis-mayoral-race/454364243/" target="_blank">mayor of Minneapolis</a> and a <a href="http://www.twincities.com/2017/10/27/the-st-paul-mayoral-race-blew-up-this-week-heres-what-happened/" target="_blank">chaotic open-seat race</a> for mayor of St. Paul.<br />
<b>New Mexico:</b> <a href="http://www.lcsun-news.com/story/news/local/2017/11/06/election-reminder-3-city-council-1-judge-position-ballot/836370001/" target="_blank">Judicial and municipal elections in Las Cruces</a>.<br />
<b>New York (<a href="http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2017/by_state/NY_Page_1107.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS" target="_blank">unofficial results</a>):</b> Special general elections in SD-26, AD-27, and AD-71; <a href="https://medium.com/@johndelsignore_61966/a-new-york-voters-guide-to-election-day-s-three-ballot-questions-726018900e2c" target="_blank">three ballot measures</a>, including Proposal 1, the <a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/new-york-constitutional-convention-proposal-1-election-day-2017-11" target="_blank">vicennial referendum</a> on holding a new constitutional convention for the State of New York; judicial and municipal elections, including mayorals in <a href="http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-new-york-mayor/new-york-mayor-de-blasio-cruises-toward-re-election-polls-show-idUSKBN1D71CY" target="_blank">New York City</a> and <a href="http://www.syracuse.com/news/index.ssf/2017/11/syracuse_mayors_race_the_story_so_far.html" target="_blank">Syracuse</a> as well as spirited county-executive races in <a href="http://www.lohud.com/story/news/local/westchester/2017/11/07/politico-westchester-county-exec-race-one-15-watch/839293001/" target="_blank">Westchester</a> and <a href="http://newyork.cbslocal.com/2017/11/02/nassau-county-executive/" target="_blank">Nassau</a>.<br />
<b>Texas:</b> <a href="https://www.texastribune.org/2017/06/06/hey-texplainer-what-constitutional-amendments-will-be-november-ballot/" target="_blank">Seven proposed constitutional amendments</a>; municipal elections in the western tip of the state.<br />
<b>Wyoming:</b> A <a href="http://www.gillettenewsrecord.com/news/local/article_06b520ba-1aec-56bb-875d-0cbc172eaffa.html" target="_blank">local referendum</a> to raise the sales tax in Campbell County.<br />
<br />
<h3>10pm ET</h3><br />
<b>Idaho:</b> Municipal elections in the southern part of the state.<br />
<b>Iowa:</b> Municipal elections, including for <a href="http://www.thegazette.com/subject/news/government/battle-lines-drawn-as-cedar-rapids-mayoral-race-heats-up-20171031" target="_blank">mayor of Cedar Rapids</a>.<br />
<b>Montana:</b> Municipal elections, including the <a href="http://www.ktvq.com/story/36744953/spending-on-billings-mayoral-race-edges-close-to-100000" target="_blank">open Billings mayoral election</a>.<br />
<b>Utah:</b> The <a href="http://www.kansas.com/news/business/article183157981.html" target="_blank">special general election for UT-03</a> (<a href="http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/files/elections/2017/by_state/UT_Page_1107.html?SITE=AP&SECTION=POLITICS" target="_blank">unofficial results</a>); <a href="http://www.sltrib.com/news/politics/2017/11/05/what-you-need-to-know-about-tuesdays-election-in-utah/" target="_blank">municipal elections</a>.<br />
<br />
<h3>11pm ET</h3><br />
<b>California:</b> Municipal elections <a href="http://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/upcoming-elections/county-administered-elections/" target="_blank">in 31 counties</a>, including for <a href="https://www.noozhawk.com/article/santa_barbara_city_council_election_by_the_numbers_20171105" target="_blank">mayor of Santa Barbara</a>.<br />
<b>Idaho:</b> Municipal elections in the Panhandle.<br />
<b>Oregon (<a href="http://results.oregonvotes.gov" target="_blank">unofficial results</a>):</b> Municipal elections.<br />
<b>Washington (<a href="http://results.vote.wa.gov/results/current/" target="_blank">unofficial results</a>):</b> <a href="https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/politics/you-get-to-vote-on-the-washington-legislatures-tax-hikes-but-it-wont-change-law/" target="_blank">Three nonbinding advisory votes</a>; State Senate special general elections in LD-07, LD-31, LD-37, LD-45 (a Republican-held seat in Democratic territory that, if flipped, would <a href="http://www.npr.org/2017/11/06/561554801/millions-of-dollars-pour-into-washington-state-special-election" target="_blank">give Democrats control of the State Senate</a> and therefore all of Washington state government), and LD-48; State House special general elections in LD-07 (Position 1), LD-31 (Position 2), and LD-48 (Position 1); judicial and municipal elections, including a Dem-on-Dem race for the <a href="https://www.geekwire.com/2017/procrastinators-last-minute-guide-seattle-mayoral-race/" target="_blank">open Seattle mayor's office</a> (<a href="https://info.kingcounty.gov/kcelections/Results/web-results.aspx?eid=9" target="_blank">unofficial results</a>) and a ballot initiative to overturn Burien's sanctuary-city status, where proponents accused immigrants of crimes in a <a href="http://q13fox.com/2017/10/27/anti-immigrant-fliers-circulate-in-burien-shocking-residents/" target="_blank">widely criticized mailer</a>.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8280420876387355520.post-5030255119494037952017-10-16T16:21:00.000-04:002017-11-07T11:01:54.672-05:002017 Downballot Race Ratings for Louisiana and VirginiaThe year following a presidential election is often the sleepiest time for elections (although <a href="http://www.politico.com/story/2017/10/13/trump-congress-breaking-point-243761" target="_blank">certainly not for politics</a>). Indeed, this November will feature only three of this blog's favorite races to analyze: downballot constitutional offices. <a href="http://baseballot.blogspot.com/2015/10/final-calls-for-decision-2015.html" target="_blank">As</a> <a href="http://baseballot.blogspot.com/2016/12/what-i-didnt-expect-in-politics-in-2016.html" target="_blank">always</a>, Baseballot will be the only site on the World Wide Web handicapping these under-the-radar yet <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/republican-ag-group-gives-another-900000-to-virginia-candidate-john-adams/2017/10/11/b797cd4e-aeca-11e7-a908-a3470754bbb9_story.html?utm_term=.981c1e33e52a" target="_blank">multi-million-dollar</a> campaigns. As my colleagues at <a href="https://www.insideelections.com" target="_blank">Inside Elections</a> do for congressional elections, I rate each state executive race on a Solid-Likely-Lean-Tilt scale, with the very closest of races earning the coveted label of "Toss-up." <br />
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According to my <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1aVd-_FbSwOyzj9fg7o6CbZM8VdGGOKtQgG3pAiTRjhE/edit#gid=0" target="_blank">Big, Bad Chart of Constitutional Offices</a>, the seats on the ballot this year include one lieutenant governor, one attorney general, and one treasurer. As it turns out, all of these elections will probably continue the status quo in the two states where they are taking place. Below are my initial ratings for the three seats; in the future, these ratings can be found on the <a href="http://baseballot.blogspot.com/p/2017-ratings.html" target="_blank">"2017 Ratings" tab</a> in the menu above, where they will be updated through Election Day.<br />
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<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-9JEA2xzwAQo/WeQzw-duJpI/AAAAAAAAHZ0/05OBgkQENqkyJrjrfh8QADzcTliwRpwtgCLcBGAs/s1600/2017%2Bratings.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-9JEA2xzwAQo/WeQzw-duJpI/AAAAAAAAHZ0/05OBgkQENqkyJrjrfh8QADzcTliwRpwtgCLcBGAs/s1600/2017%2Bratings.png" data-original-width="772" data-original-height="302" width="454" length="178"/></a></div><br />
<h3>Louisiana</h3><ul><li><b>Treasurer:</b> <i>Solid Republican.</i> After Treasurer John Kennedy was elected to the U.S. Senate in December 2016, a statewide special election was called to fill the remaining two years in his term. After six candidates squared off in the <a href="https://bayoubuzz.com/issues/item/1062948-louisiana-vote-turnout-despite-new-orleans-mayor-s-race-nola-elections-a-record-low" target="_blank">low-turnout</a> October 14 jungle primary, Democrat Derrick Edwards (31%) and Republican John Schroder (24%) finished first and second to advance to the November 18 runoff. Democrats might have once had an outside shot at winning this seat: the party has <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/democrats-are-overperforming-in-special-elections-almost-everywhere/" target="_blank">overperformed in special elections thus far this year</a> (probably due to the unpopularity of President Donald Trump), and the treasurer election just so happens to coincide with a competitive open mayoral race in dark blue New Orleans, meaning Democrats may constitute a disproportionate share of the electorate. However, it has quickly become apparent that Edwards isn't taking his campaign seriously. Despite an inspiring backstory (the wheelchair-bound Edwards was paralyzed by a brutal collision in a high-school football game; after doctors told him he would have to be cared for in an institution for the rest of his life, he instead got two graduate degrees and is now a practicing lawyer), Edwards has barely campaigned, missed campaign-finance deadlines, skipped debates and media events, and refused to talk about his plans until after he is elected. As a result, the Louisiana Democratic Party <a href="http://www.theadvocate.com/baton_rouge/news/politics/elections/article_45a00498-885c-11e7-8add-fb7b4b724778.html" target="_blank">isn't even supporting his campaign</a>, effectively ceding the race to the Republican Schroder, a former state representative. Schroder was the only candidate able to accrue significant funds from a <a href="http://www.theadvocate.com/acadiana/news/politics/elections/article_b2455fc0-ad47-11e7-a961-97f0d22139bc.html" target="_blank">tapped-out Louisiana donor class</a> in the first phase of the campaign, raising more than all of his opponents combined ($436,954, compared to only $9,678 for Edwards). Now that he's the only Republican in the race, he'll use that dough to consolidate support and win easily.</li>
</ul><br />
<h3>Virginia</h3>Sometimes, a state's downballot races are decided by turnout at the top of the ticket, and it looks like that will be the case in Virginia this year: so far, the commonwealth's two constitutional-officer elections have tracked extremely closely with its hard-fought gubernatorial race. That contest is rated <a href="https://www.insideelections.com/news/article/virginia-governor-the-democrats-must-win-race" target="_blank">Lean Democratic by Inside Elections</a>, but if it ends up being more Democratic or Republican than predicted, the two elections below will too. (All three elections take place on Tuesday, November 7.)<br />
<ul><li><b>Lieutenant Governor:</b> <i>Lean Democratic.</i> With a <a href="http://www.richmond.com/news/virginia/government-politics/lg-candidate-reeves-wants-to-depose-opponent-vogel-over-email/article_e6be5753-e9ea-58aa-923c-4a3dab422a6e.html" target="_blank">truly batty Republican primary</a> behind us (which State Senator Jill Vogel might have won by spreading rumors that her opponent had an affair), the general election for lieutenant governor has been as uninteresting as the actual post, which is part-time and mostly consists of breaking ties in the State Senate. Vogel has struck an <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/republican-jill-vogel-embraces-the-trump-agenda-in-her-virginia-race/2017/10/09/62d52352-a875-11e7-b3aa-c0e2e1d41e38_story.html?utm_term=.e5856e4d7bb8" target="_blank">interesting balance</a> between distancing herself from the rest of the Republican Party on issues like gay rights and also not showing any of Ed Gillespie's hesitance to embrace President Trump. Meanwhile, Democrat Justin Fairfax, who lost a close primary for attorney general in 2013, is attacking Vogel for her <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/dark-money-superlawyer-bills-herself-as-advocate-for-charities-in-va-lieutenant-governors-race/2017/10/13/3595324a-995e-11e7-82e4-f1076f6d6152_story.html?utm_term=.ba1be8f8c714" target="_blank">legal defense of various dark-money groups</a> and a bill she sponsored to <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/much-lampooned-ultrasound-bill-revived-in-race-for-va-lieutenant-governor/2017/08/09/dceca174-7cab-11e7-83c7-5bd5460f0d7e_story.html?utm_term=.0bf447f3db75" target="_blank">require women to have an invasive ultrasound</a> before getting an abortion. Vogel also caused a mini-stir by saying Fairfax, who is black, couldn't <a href="http://www.roanoke.com/news/politics/democrats-criticize-jill-vogel-s-remark-that-justin-fairfax-can/article_59d891b0-fcba-5fd8-bd14-5332d742c81d.html" target="_blank">"talk intelligently"</a> on the issues. Ultimately, though, that gaffe is unlikely to make a splash in an ocean of daily Trump tweets, and, with each candidate having only about $300,000 in the bank, the LG race has been the quietest of Virginia's three campaigns on TV thus far. <a href="http://tinyurl.com/VALGAGpolls" target="_blank">Polling</a> shows Fairfax with a lead comparable to Democrat Ralph Northam's in the governor's race.</li>
</ul><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-VXv4ZHO4buA/WeUSShF4JuI/AAAAAAAAHaE/KNTyDIN0ruwS_mZ7nXztAe8UZbSMbcbcgCLcBGAs/s1600/VA%2BLG%2Bpolling.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-VXv4ZHO4buA/WeUSShF4JuI/AAAAAAAAHaE/KNTyDIN0ruwS_mZ7nXztAe8UZbSMbcbcgCLcBGAs/s1600/VA%2BLG%2Bpolling.png" data-original-width="1010" data-original-height="722" width="505" length="361"/></a></div><ul><li><b>Attorney General:</b> <i>Lean Democratic.</i> Instead, all the downballot action in Old Dominion is here. The Republican Attorneys General Association <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/republican-ag-group-gives-another-900000-to-virginia-candidate-john-adams/2017/10/11/b797cd4e-aeca-11e7-a908-a3470754bbb9_story.html?utm_term=.10091ad12c6b" target="_blank">has poured $2.75 million</a> into the campaign coffers of Republican candidate John Adams—and yet he still trails Democrat Mark Herring in total fundraising by $2.8 million. In response, the Democratic Attorneys General Association has given Herring $1.7 million, helping to fund a major TV blitz by the incumbent AG. Adams's campaign has <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/virginia-attorney-general-candidates-release-dueling-ads/2017/10/04/5ef2f186-a917-11e7-850e-2bdd1236be5d_story.html?utm_term=.cbdbe45297fe" target="_blank">responded in kind</a>, and he is further buoyed by the air support of the NRA's political action committee, the only outside group advertising in a downballot race so far this year. Adams and his Republican allies are accusing Herring of <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/the-democratic-incumbents-a-liberal-hero-his-republican-challenger-is-a-conservative-stalwart-voters-are-just-starting-to-tune-in/2017/09/29/6e191414-a21a-11e7-b14f-f41773cd5a14_story.html?utm_term=.d42c0f900534" target="_blank">politicizing the attorney general's office</a> (Herring has sued the Trump administration over immigration and tried to prevent out-of-state gun permits from being used in Virginia), but this light blue state might actually be on board with that: Herring <a href="http://tinyurl.com/VALGAGpolls" target="_blank">leads polls</a> by as wide a margin as any of Virginia's three Democrats on the 2017 ballot.</li>
</ul><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-ZheCCgqJTzQ/WeUTHrB_o5I/AAAAAAAAHaM/6PutGefY7T0omirwjTpYwo9oqGI9eV2OQCLcBGAs/s1600/VA%2BAG%2Bpolling.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-ZheCCgqJTzQ/WeUTHrB_o5I/AAAAAAAAHaM/6PutGefY7T0omirwjTpYwo9oqGI9eV2OQCLcBGAs/s1600/VA%2BAG%2Bpolling.png" data-original-width="1010" data-original-height="722" width="505" length="361"/></a></div>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8280420876387355520.post-69722732953516665312017-09-26T07:34:00.000-04:002017-09-26T07:34:30.707-04:00Previewing Florida SD-40: Three Questions That Will Tell Us the Most About 2018There's a special legislative election <a href="https://ballotpedia.org/State_legislative_special_elections,_2017" target="_blank">almost every week</a>, but today we have a special special. Ever since Florida State Senator Frank Artiles <a href="http://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/community/miami-dade/article145327079.html" target="_blank">called a fellow state senator</a> a "fucking asshole" and a "bitch," called the Senate President a "pussy" who was only elected with the help of "six niggas," hired a Hooters calendar girl and a <i>Playboy</i> model as <a href="http://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/state-politics/article146029094.html" target="_blank">"campaign consultants,"</a> and <a href="http://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/article145942934.html" target="_blank">resigned from office in disgrace</a>, the race to replace him has been circled on my calendar—not for any reason related to the Florida-man antics on display from its former occupant, but rather due to the district itself.<br />
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<b>Florida Senate District 40</b> covers Kendall and other dense suburbs southwest of Miami, stretching from South Dixie Highway (U.S. 1) near Dadeland Mall in the east to Krome Avenue in the west. According to Florida data consultant Matthew Isbell, it voted <a href="http://mcimaps.com/presidential-results-by-florida-senate-district-and-the-effects-of-redistricting/" target="_blank">57.1% for Hillary Clinton and 39.5% for Donald Trump</a> in 2016 yet preferred Republican Marco Rubio to Democrat Patrick Murphy in that year's U.S. Senate race, <a href="http://mcimaps.com/florida-primary-previews-for-sd40-and-hd116/" target="_blank">50% to 47%</a>. At the same time, Artiles, a Republican, defeated Democrat Dwight Bullard 50.6% to 40.7% for what was (like it is today) an open State Senate seat.<br />
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Why the wide variation in results? A plurality of Florida SD-40's voters belong to the difficult-to-pin-down community of Cuban Americans. This historically Republican bloc has edged into competitiveness as young Cuban Americans (who are more liberal) come of age, the national parties have become more racially polarized, and/or President Trump has alienated the Hispanic community writ large. That explains why SD-40 largely rejected Trump in the 2016 presidential election while still supporting Rubio and Artiles (who are both Cuban American themselves). According to Isbell, an estimated <a href="http://mcimaps.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/07/Cuban-Population.png" target="_blank">38% of the district's population is Cuban American</a>. Overall, as of the 2010 Census (and, fair warning, South Florida is a rapidly changing area), the district was <a href="https://www.flsenate.gov/PublishedContent/Session/Redistricting/Districts/sd2016/stats/sd40_district_details.pdf" target="_blank">74.6% Hispanic, 14.5% non-Hispanic white, and 8.0% non-Hispanic black</a>.<br />
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<a href="https://demographics.virginia.edu/DotMap/index.html" target="_blank"></a><br />
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Today, Democrat Annette Taddeo (who is half Italian American, half Colombian American) faces off against Republican José Felix Díaz (who is Cuban American). It's been an expensive campaign (political committees have spent $4.1 million on the race <i>on top of</i> the $1.8 million spent by the campaigns), and the outcome is legitimately in question (the only poll of the race, a three-month-old Democratic internal, <a href="http://miamiherald.typepad.com/nakedpolitics/2017/07/democratic-poll-taddeo-edges-diaz-in-miami-senate-matchup.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter" target="_blank">gave Taddeo a 42–38% lead</a>). The final results, which will trickle in starting at 7pm ET tonight, will be a particularly useful data point in our <a href="http://baseballot.blogspot.com/2017/02/after-three-special-elections-what-we.html" target="_blank">never-ending quest</a> to figure out what's going to happen in 2018. There are three crucial questions that we need answered in order to understand how and whether Democrats can take back a U.S. House majority in next year's midterms, and, more than most special elections this year, Florida SD-40 will hold a clue to each of them.<br />
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<h3>1. Will the election be nationalized, or will voters consider it locally?</h3><br />
This is pretty simple. Unlike more uniform legislative and congressional districts, Republicans have recently done much better here downballot than at the top of the ticket. If voters cast their ballots based on their feelings toward Donald Trump and what is happening in Washington, it's good for Democrats. If they consider the two candidates in a vacuum, it's good for Republicans. Knowing this, Taddeo has tried to tie Díaz (who is a former contestant on <i>The Apprentice!</i>) to Trump with a <a href="http://miamiherald.typepad.com/nakedpolitics/2017/08/florida-democrats-release-first-tv-ad-for-taddeo-in-miami-senate-race-its-all-about-trump.html" target="_blank">contrastive TV ad</a>, while Díaz has <a href="http://www.miamiherald.com/news/politics-government/state-politics/article168078182.html" target="_blank">attempted to play up</a> Taddeo's weaknesses, such as her support for the Colombian peace accord with the FARC and her alleged tolerance of the communist regimes in Cuba and China.<br />
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The final result will tell us which candidate was successful. If Taddeo approaches or even exceeds Clinton's 57% here, it could be a sign that this election was decided along national battle lines. That could bode well for Democrats in 2018 if everyone goes to the polls with the unpopular Trump in mind, not their local congressman. If Díaz wins, it's pretty solid evidence that local considerations can still win out in the age of Trump.<br />
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<h3>2. Will the electorate be more Democratic than usual?</h3><br />
The conventional wisdom about midterm elections is that the electorate is older, whiter, and more Republican than in presidential elections. But most of that conventional wisdom is rooted in the Obama midterms of 2010 and 2014, and the longer-term trend is that the president's party tends to suffer in midterm elections. Indeed, an enthusiasm gap in favor of the Democrats has been apparent lately in measures from the <a href="https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/" target="_blank">generic ballot</a> to <a href="https://resistancenearme.org" target="_blank">demonstrations</a>. Democratic overperformance has also been a crystal-clear pattern in <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/democrats-are-overperforming-in-special-elections-almost-everywhere/" target="_blank">special-election results so far in 2017</a>, but it'll be important to see whether it holds in SD-40 in particular. Because SD-40 is so heavily Hispanic, there is greater danger than usual of midterm dropoff voting harming Democratic chances. If Taddeo tonight follows in the footsteps of other Democratic special-election candidates across the nation and exceeds the typical Democratic performance in her district, it's a good sign for the party that the typical demographic forces of midterm elections can be overcome. If Díaz does better than expected, it'll suggest that Democrats still have a turnout problem among minority voters. (Note: the best basis for comparison here is not the district's presidential lean, for reasons explained above; instead, keep an eye on how Taddeo and Díaz perform relative to Bullard and Artiles in the last open State Senate race in this district just ten and a half months ago.)<br />
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<h3>3. Was 2016 a political realignment, or will election results revert to their pre-2016 norms?</h3><br />
Most special elections this year have taken place in districts that shifted toward Republicans in 2016 with Trump on the ticket—enough that we can be <a href="https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2017/9/14/1696496/-Democrats-have-bounced-back-in-districts-that-swung-hard-to-Trump-and-almost-everywhere-else-too" target="_blank">pretty sure that "Trump Democrats" aren't lost to Democrats forever</a>. But we know a lot less about the opposite case: historically Republican Clinton voters. Will Democrats be able to hold onto them in future elections? Many of their <a href="https://www.insideelections.com/ratings/house" target="_blank">best paths to a U.S. House majority</a> go through districts, including several in heavily Hispanic California and Florida, that shifted toward Democrats in 2016. <br />
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Florida SD-40 is one of those districts. According to Isbell, voters within its lines went for Barack Obama over Mitt Romney <a href="https://twitter.com/mcimaps/status/898634257609900033" target="_blank">54.5% to 44.9%</a> in 2012. In a scenario where Democrats succeed in nationalizing this special election, a smaller Taddeo win might suggest that voters are sticking with their 2012 preferences; a Taddeo blowout might suggest that the 2016 baseline is more accurate. However, because of this district's unusual ticket-splitting tendencies, it may not be easy (or appropriate) to directly compare the 2017 State Senate results with the 2016 and 2012 presidential results, as explained above. So while the district's (new or old, 2016 or 2012) partisan baseline will certainly factor into tonight's results, it will probably be the trickiest thing to tease out. Simply put, the race is expected to be far closer than either Obama's 9.6-point win or Clinton's 17.6-point win, so a nail-biter wouldn't necessarily mean that the more Republican-favorable (i.e., 2012) baseline is the correct one.<br />
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<h3>* * *</h3><br />
Indeed, all three of these factors are going to affect the final verdict in Florida SD-40 tonight—and yet we're only going to see one set of topline results. Admittedly, that may make it difficult to tease apart exactly what to take away from the election; for instance, the variables listed above could pull in multiple directions, muddling the analysis and leaving the door open to more than one explanation. There's another major confounder: the cleanup after Hurricane Irma. Many areas of the district, which was hit hard earlier this month, are still without power, and voting may simply not be many people's top priority. (Governor Rick Scott <a href="http://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/community/miami-dade/article173385101.html" target="_blank">rejected the Democratic Party's request</a> to postpone the election until life in South Florida returned to normal.) <br />
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So even though the answers to all three questions will lie hidden in tonight's two simple results—Taddeo X, Díaz Y—they may not be obvious. But the election will still be able to tell us <i>something.</i> Certain results could eliminate certain 2018 theories, and a select few results would offer unambiguous lessons. If Taddeo wins by 17 points or better (i.e., she does better than Clinton), all three questions will have been answered in Democrats' favor. If Díaz outperforms Artiles's 10-point win from 2016, Republicans will be dancing a jig of glee.<br />
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If you're looking for a more definitive lesson to take away from tonight's results, though, you're in luck. If nothing else, this election is likely to foreshadow the open race for Florida's 27th Congressional District, which is being vacated by Republican Ileana Ros-Lehtinen in 2018. Both FL-27 and SD-40 voted similarly in the 2016 and 2012 presidential races (both moving toward Democrats), both are three-quarters Hispanic, and both are open seats. In fact, they share many of the exact same voters: 24.1% of voters in FL-27 live in SD-40, and 34.7% of voters in SD-40 live in FL-27. Whichever party prevails tonight has to be considered the favorite in FL-27 next November—and that's one-twenty-fourth of Democrats' way to a majority.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8280420876387355520.post-16732917150611628822017-08-24T10:06:00.000-04:002017-08-24T10:06:22.722-04:00Thanks to a Constitutional Quirk, Nothing to See in New Hampshire or Vermont in 2018New Hampshire Governor Chris Sununu and Vermont Governor Phil Scott just took office seven months ago, and yet they are already having to run for reelection. New Hampshire and Vermont are unique among the states in that they elect their governors to two-year, rather than four-year, terms—resulting in nearly never-ending gubernatorial campaigns.<br />
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Democrats eager to start rebuilding their gubernatorial bench in 2018 are practically salivating over these two northern New England states. They doubtlessly look out on the Granite State’s political landscape and see a state that’s <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/swing-voters-and-elastic-states/" target="_blank">among the swingiest in the nation</a>—one Donald Trump lost by just 2,736 votes in 2016—entering what could be a <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/will-trumps-approval-rating-be-a-problem-for-republicans-in-2018/" target="_blank">dramatic Democratic wave election</a>. Meanwhile, in the Green Mountain State, a Republican sits on the throne of one of the most liberal states in the union—the home state of Bernie Sanders that went for Hillary Clinton by 26 points. You can understand why Democrats think they have an opening.<br />
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Unfortunately for them, their thinking is flawed; both Sununu and Scott are heavy favorites in 2018 due to the same underlying campaign context that Democrats think will help them. While New Hampshire and Vermont voters can be quite independent, that doesn’t mean they’re impatient enough to give up on their governors after just two short years. Indeed, these states’ unusual election calendars raise a very simple question: <b>how often do governors lose reelection after only two years in office?</b><br />
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In addition to New Hampshire and Vermont, Rhode Island also elected governors to two-year terms until it <a href="http://sos.ri.gov/divisions/Civics-And-Education/RI-History#thirtyfour" target="_blank">amended its constitution</a> effective 1994. Out of the collective past 85 biennial gubernatorial elections in those three states, an incumbent governor running for reelection after his or her first term has lost just one. It hasn’t happened in Vermont since 1962; it didn’t happen in Rhode Island after 1962; and it has happened just once (2004) in New Hampshire in the past 90 years. Indeed, running for governor against a two-year incumbent could be considered insane by one famous definition—doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result.<br />
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This is a significant difference in job security from governors elected quadrennially. As we’ve all observed, one-term governors are hardly unusual in the other 47 and a half states. It also becomes a lot more likely that Vermont, sometime Rhode Island, and especially New Hampshire governors lose reelection or retire once they serve four years:<br />
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<a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-UFV20S8W0IE/WZ3-pjLPYOI/AAAAAAAAHS0/6R75_wupJIo-Scik0xgc8odKZdbA999lwCLcBGAs/s1600/Governors%2527%2Blongevity.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="610" data-original-width="856" height="356" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-UFV20S8W0IE/WZ3-pjLPYOI/AAAAAAAAHS0/6R75_wupJIo-Scik0xgc8odKZdbA999lwCLcBGAs/s1600/Governors%2527%2Blongevity.png" width="500" /></a></div>
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What accounts for this near-invincibility? Most likely, it’s an extended honeymoon period. When any politician enters office, he or she generally enjoys increased popularity and political capital. Most of them are able to convert this political capital into action and results, which in turn lifts their popularity even higher. It’s not until a few years down the line that voters begin to get sick of their governor and/or the candidate falters.<br />
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This theory arises from the fact that, not only do two-year governors almost always win their first reelection battles, but they almost always do so even more convincingly than they won the corner office in the first place. Historical results for New Hampshire, Vermont, and Rhode Island gubernatorial elections going back to 1972 point to the electoral potency of a two-year incumbency:<br />
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<a href="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-wTMH9h7vOoo/WZ4AQBfoI5I/AAAAAAAAHTA/hIrqBtp9BwQ0deFTbRkBTaQ-2Va9vlRggCLcBGAs/s1600/NHVTRI%2Bgov%2Bresults.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="770" data-original-width="1040" height="369" src="https://4.bp.blogspot.com/-wTMH9h7vOoo/WZ4AQBfoI5I/AAAAAAAAHTA/hIrqBtp9BwQ0deFTbRkBTaQ-2Va9vlRggCLcBGAs/s1600/NHVTRI%2Bgov%2Bresults.png" width="500" /></a></div>
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That’s an average boost of 7.0 percentage points to the incumbent’s vote share and an average 13.4-point widening of his or her margin of victory. That’s conservative, too; Bruce Sundlun drags down the data because he did so well in his first election that his reelection (which he won comfortably) couldn’t possibly match it. In addition, Madeleine Kunin’s vote share fell in her reelection bid even though her margin of victory increased; that was because she faced a credible third-party challenger (Sanders, of all people) in 1986 as well.<br />
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Craig Benson in 2004—the one two-year governor during this period to lose reelection—remains the only truly concerning precedent for Sununu and Scott. Indeed, he is a poster child for what not to do in your first two-year term as governor: <a href="http://info.nhpr.org/node/5899" target="_blank">flout ethics rules</a>, <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2003/06/21/us/national-briefing-new-england-new-hampshire-law-requires-parents-consent-for.html?src=pm" target="_blank">overreach legislatively</a>, and <a href="http://archive.boston.com/news/politics/governors/articles/2004/11/04/defeated_after_1_term_nh_governor_fades_out/" target="_blank">make enemies</a>. However, Sununu and Scott have avoided any such missteps, and their net approval ratings are <a href="https://morningconsult.com/governor-approval-ratings-july-2017/" target="_blank">sky high</a>. They look well ensconced in their aforementioned honeymoon periods, and they are well on the path of every non-Benson two-year governor since 1972 to comfortable reelections. If historical averages hold, Sununu can expect to receive about 56% of the vote in 2018 to his opponent’s 40%; Scott can expect to prevail 60% to 38%.<br />
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But there’s also a warning hidden in the data. Two of the three governors whose margins of victory <i>shrank</i> in their reelection campaigns have served within the last 15 years; the recentness of Benson’s example is certainly a red flag. Could we be entering a period of <a href="http://baseballot.blogspot.com/2012/01/wave-elections-and-our-attention-spans.html" target="_blank">more impatience</a> in the electorate? Are the 21st century’s <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/24/us/politics/partisanship-republicans-democrats-pew-research.html" target="_blank">heightened partisanship</a> and <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/all-politics-is-presidential/" target="_blank">increased correlation between national and state election results</a> finally overpowering these states’ longstanding traditions of voting for the person over the party? It’s impossible to tell as of yet, but it’s something for Sununu and Scott to be mindful of. By no means can they afford to sit back and take reelection for granted. But with prepared and competent incumbents, Republicans at least have history on their side.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8280420876387355520.post-55294348593192728862017-07-17T12:30:00.005-04:002017-07-17T12:30:57.252-04:00How Many Fans Does Each MLB Team Have?: The 2017 Baseball CensusFor the second straight year, Harris failed to release its <a href="http://www.theharrispoll.com/sports/Favorite_Baseball_Teams_2015.html" target="_blank">formerly annual baseball poll</a>. Usually conducted right around the All-Star break, the survey is valuable as pretty much our only direct measure of which MLB team is most popular nationwide. But now that I fear the Harris baseball poll has met its permanent demise, anyone interested in the demographics of baseball fans has to take matters into his or her own hands.<br />
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That's what I've done for the <a href="http://baseballot.blogspot.com/2014/07/how-many-fans-does-each-mlb-team-have.html" target="_blank">last</a> <a href="http://baseballot.blogspot.com/2015/07/the-severalest-fans-in-baseball.html" target="_blank">three</a> <a href="http://baseballot.blogspot.com/2016/07/how-many-fans-does-each-mlb-team-have.html" target="_blank">years</a> here at Baseballot. Harris may be the only pollster that canvasses the whole nation about all 30 teams, but our friends over at <a href="https://twitter.com/ppppolls" target="_blank">Public Policy Polling</a> (PPP) love to throw a baseball question or two into their state-by-state political polls. For each state that PPP polls, I use the latest population estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau to <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Mv5PeRb5V5NZLYv02ytlxJTMjldBX1OTVql0jWQG4IY/edit#gid=0" target="_blank">estimate a raw number of fans for each team in that state</a>. Here are the cumulative figures nationwide for July 2017:<br />
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<table class="tg"><tbody>
<tr> <th class="tg-031e">Team</th> <th class="tg-031e">Fans</th> <th class="tg-031e">Team</th> <th class="tg-031e">Fans</th> </tr>
<tr> <td class="tg-031e">New York Yankees</td> <td class="tg-031e">25,226,872</td> <td class="tg-031e">Colorado Rockies</td> <td class="tg-031e">5,017,208</td> </tr>
<tr> <td class="tg-031e">Boston Red Sox</td> <td class="tg-031e">20,193,922</td> <td class="tg-031e">Kansas City Royals</td> <td class="tg-031e">4,830,504</td> </tr>
<tr> <td class="tg-031e">Atlanta Braves</td> <td class="tg-031e">20,085,743</td> <td class="tg-031e">Baltimore Orioles</td> <td class="tg-031e">4,612,809</td> </tr>
<tr> <td class="tg-031e">Chicago Cubs</td> <td class="tg-031e">18,407,160</td> <td class="tg-031e">Minnesota Twins</td> <td class="tg-031e">4,541,341</td> </tr>
<tr> <td class="tg-031e">San Francisco Giants</td> <td class="tg-031e">11,353,160</td> <td class="tg-031e">Cleveland Indians</td> <td class="tg-031e">4,331,383</td> </tr>
<tr> <td class="tg-031e">Texas Rangers</td> <td class="tg-031e">10,414,884</td> <td class="tg-031e">Arizona Diamondbacks</td> <td class="tg-031e">4,207,748</td> </tr>
<tr> <td class="tg-031e">St. Louis Cardinals</td> <td class="tg-031e">8,743,144</td> <td class="tg-031e">Pittsburgh Pirates</td> <td class="tg-031e">4,161,965</td> </tr>
<tr> <td class="tg-031e">Los Angeles Dodgers</td> <td class="tg-031e">8,380,484</td> <td class="tg-031e">Milwaukee Brewers</td> <td class="tg-031e">3,975,281</td> </tr>
<tr> <td class="tg-031e">Detroit Tigers</td> <td class="tg-031e">7,594,395</td> <td class="tg-031e">Oakland Athletics</td> <td class="tg-031e">3,842,463</td> </tr>
<tr> <td class="tg-031e">New York Mets</td> <td class="tg-031e">7,035,826</td> <td class="tg-031e">San Diego Padres</td> <td class="tg-031e">3,371,712</td> </tr>
<tr> <td class="tg-031e">Houston Astros</td> <td class="tg-031e">6,734,407</td> <td class="tg-031e">Chicago White Sox</td> <td class="tg-031e">3,023,366</td> </tr>
<tr> <td class="tg-031e">Los Angeles Angels</td> <td class="tg-031e">6,702,815</td> <td class="tg-031e">Tampa Bay Rays</td> <td class="tg-031e">3,017,097</td> </tr>
<tr> <td class="tg-031e">Seattle Mariners</td> <td class="tg-031e">6,023,758</td> <td class="tg-031e">Miami Marlins</td> <td class="tg-031e">2,979,375</td> </tr>
<tr> <td class="tg-031e">Philadelphia Phillies</td> <td class="tg-031e">5,402,108</td> <td class="tg-031e">Washington Nationals</td> <td class="tg-031e">2,812,690</td> </tr>
<tr> <td class="tg-031e">Cincinnati Reds</td> <td class="tg-031e">5,107,524</td> <td class="tg-031e">Toronto Blue Jays*</td> <td class="tg-031e">210,801</td> </tr>
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<br />
<i>*These numbers do not include fans in Canada, meaning the Blue Jays are surely underrepresented.</i><br />
<br />
Unfortunately, we haven't gotten a lot of new baseball polls in the past 12 months; PPP was busy asking poll questions about <a href="http://sites.middlebury.edu/trump/files/2015/10/6358235333419573281092854367_donald-trump.jpg" target="_blank">something else</a>, I guess. We did get a new poll of Florida, which is as much a baseball bellwether as it is a political one. In <a href="http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_FL_90716.pdf" target="_blank">last September's poll</a>, the Yankees reclaimed the title of Florida's favorite baseball team, just as they are America's favorite team with an estimated 25,226,872 fans nationwide. New York (AL) leapfrogged ahead of the Marlins and Rays in the Sunshine State, the two teams fighting for the dubious honor of least popular in the United States. (The numbers above don't include Washington, DC, either, so the Nationals are undercounted just like the Blue Jays.)<br />
<br />
We also learned about the baseball preferences of Utah for the first time (finding: <a href="http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2015/PPP_Release_UT_82416.pdf" target="_blank">they don't really care too much</a>), bringing the coverage of our makeshift baseball census to 39 of the 50 states (representing 88.5% of the U.S. population). Here's what's still missing:<br />
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<a href="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-vskjylLMXbM/WWvBPKh4d2I/AAAAAAAAHR0/dKc8osxiaBsaPDLtgs6GA-m2ZUgviXNMQCLcBGAs/s1600/Baseball%2BCensus%2B2017.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="964" data-original-width="1600" height="307" src="https://3.bp.blogspot.com/-vskjylLMXbM/WWvBPKh4d2I/AAAAAAAAHR0/dKc8osxiaBsaPDLtgs6GA-m2ZUgviXNMQCLcBGAs/s1600/Baseball%2BCensus%2B2017.png" width="500" /></a></div>
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Obviously, then, there are some limitations to this exercise. Missing states like Indiana and Alabama means our numbers for teams like the Cubs/White Sox and Braves are lower than they truly are. And PPP's baseball questions are worded in an opt-out manner, so 78% of poll respondents nationwide claimed to have a favorite team even though we know that only around <a href="http://www.gallup.com/poll/1696/baseball.aspx" target="_blank">40–50% of Americans</a> are baseball fans. On the other hand, PPP also only has time to ask about eight or so MLB teams per state, meaning the handful of fans of the other ~22 teams in that state don't get counted. So, yes, this census is hardly scientific, but it's a fun rough approximation of some very interesting data.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8280420876387355520.post-22255860624687682312017-06-21T16:09:00.001-04:002017-06-21T16:14:11.614-04:00Why Ditching Pelosi Would Be PointlessI don't have strong feelings one way or the other about whether Democrats should fire Nancy Pelosi. But I do have strong feelings about people who howl incessantly that Democrats should fire Nancy Pelosi. There would be no point to forcing her out—and Democrats certainly wouldn't be solving all their apparent electoral problems* by doing so.<br />
<br />
There's no question that Republicans have had success using Pelosi as a bogeyman in campaign ads—"vote for the Democrat," they threaten, "and Pelosi's liberal agenda will take over the country!" But do any Democrats really think that these ads will stop without Pelosi in power? That Republicans will just throw up their arms and say, "Oh well, I guess we can't attack Democrats anymore"? No; the GOP will simply move on to the next-best bogeyman—probably Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer.<br />
<br />
Furthermore, whoever Democrats pick to succeed Pelosi—even if it's someone eminently likable—will immediately become the target of Republican attacks and will suffer a popularity hit as a result. It is the other party's job to try to define its opponents in a negative way. It is one of the great paradoxes of politics that party leaders (at least in Congress) are <a href="http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/congress/article101647842.html" target="_blank">always among the least popular members of that party</a>—but that's a feature, not a bug. The very act of being in leadership makes you less popular. That's why it's tempting to always think that a party's congressional leader is the absolute worst choice for the job, but really no one else would do much better.<br />
<br />
Others might argue that Pelosi's age (she just turned 77 in March) is holding Democrats back. But I fail to see why Pelosi's age matters to the average voter other than just being one of the ingredients in the Republican cocktail of discrediting her. This is not the United Kingdom; voters don't go to the polls to choose between Nancy Pelosi and Paul Ryan. They vote for the local candidates in their districts, and as long as Democrats nominate appealing individual candidates (and yes, youth/vigor can be an element of that), the age of the potential speaker of the House doesn't matter.<br />
<br />
Nor do I really see anything for Democrats to gain by <a href="https://twitter.com/dhmontgomery/status/877603004920340480" target="_blank">picking a dynamic new leader</a>. Republicans basically tried this, switching from John Boehner to the young and likable Paul Ryan in 2015. As a result, Ryan's unpopularity <a href="http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/paul-ryan-favorable-rating" target="_blank">shot up</a>, and although his GOP did well in the 2016 congressional elections, I don't know anyone who says it was because of Ryan. The reality is that, in our president-centric system of government, it's just not clear that congressional leadership makes much of a difference in elections (again, apart from being convenient fodder for attack ads). <a href="http://thehill.com/homenews/house/311718-seven-rising-democratic-stars" target="_blank">Tim Ryan</a> or <a href="https://newrepublic.com/article/140356/massachusetts-liberal-rising-star" target="_blank">Katherine Clark</a> or whoever Democrats pick isn't going to zigzag the nation kissing babies and winning over voters. That's just not the role our legislative leaders play.<br />
<br />
There's already a debate in political science over whether presidential elections are a referendum or a choice. Basically, even when the opposition formally agrees that Polly Tishan is going to be the face of their party, and even when Polly embarks on an exhaustive campaign schedule, half of political scientists still think voters are essentially just voting based on what they think of the incumbent president. So in a midterm election like 2018, what chance does the face of the Democratic Party have of convincing voters to cast their ballots primarily as a statement of support for him or her? Fundamentally, our system of government and our electoral culture does not lend itself to Theresa May-vs.-Jeremy Corbyn-style ideological and personal movements. The question of the 2018 election is likely to be simple and blunt: "Donald Trump—yes or no?"<br />
<br />
Democrats can decide for themselves what to do about Pelosi. But they would be foolish to think that getting rid of her is a panacea. There is no Democratic House member ready to step in who already has a bulletproof national brand and won't be able to be defined negatively by Republicans. The other party is always going to find a way to demonize your congressional leadership. Electorally, they can never help you, and you should probably just accept that they are inevitably going to harm you. So both parties: stop picking (and picking on) your legislative leaders based on political considerations or popularity. Choose them for their actual job: their ability to cut legislative deals and govern effectively. At the ballot box, it absolutely will not matter one bit.<br />
<br />
*I'm <a href="https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/where-can-democrats-win-georgia-6-ossoff-handel/" target="_blank">not even convinced that they have electoral problems</a>, to be honest. Yes, eventually they will need to sort through their internal divisions to pick a 2020 presidential nominee and settle on a grand message to compete with Donald Trump's, but for midterm elections, just being the opposition party is often <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_House_of_Representatives_elections,_2006" target="_blank">more than sufficient</a>.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8280420876387355520.post-25746868228797083362017-06-19T13:21:00.000-04:002017-06-28T12:20:18.217-04:00Reflections on the 2017 Congressional Baseball GameI always look forward to the Congressional Baseball Game; it's the platonic ideal of my two main interests combined. Usually, it's a fun and intimate affair—me and 10,000 of my closest friends watching the sloppiest All-Star Game of all time—but that all changed this year when <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/public-safety/multiple-people-injured-after-shooting-in-alexandria/2017/06/14/0289c768-50f6-11e7-be25-3a519335381c_story.html?utm_term=.1bcae0041a64" target="_blank">a gunman opened fire on a Republican baseball practice the day before the game</a>.<br />
<br />
Although, thankfully, no one was killed, the tragedy completely reshaped our fun little tradition. Heavy security and solemn pregame ceremonies changed how I covered the game this year. A flood of interest in the Congressional Baseball Game suddenly meant lots of people were asking me about my experience covering the game and my research into its history. It was, frankly, a blur of activity that I even had trouble sorting through as I was living it. However, for you, my dear reader, I will attempt to make sense of it all. Here are all the articles and quotes I contributed to coverage of this year's Congressional Baseball Game.<br />
<ul>
<li><b><a href="http://www.rollcall.com/numbers-teams-stack/" target="_blank">My statistical preview of the game</a>. </b>As you may know, I keep a <a href="https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1ugXP6qar3m3jmKtjsUp-AFWLyVeQOOK-3b9DblPTRks/edit#gid=0" target="_blank">totally unnecessary Google spreadsheet</a> of representatives' batting and pitching statistics in the Congressional Baseball Game since 2009. This year, for the first time, I used the stats to preview the game in Roll Call's official game program. The article isn't online yet, but I'll link to it here when it's up.</li>
<li><b><a href="http://www.hardballtimes.com/congress-finds-peace-in-the-church-of-baseball/" target="_blank">My dispatch from covering the game in person</a>. </b>I was originally expecting my recap for The Hardball Times to focus on the baseball game, but it ended up mostly a play-by-play of the pregame ceremonies and the bipartisanship that pervaded Nationals Park.</li>
<li><b><a href="http://www.rollcall.com/news/politics/numbers-richmond-desantis-others-pad-baseball-resumes" target="_blank">My statistical recap of the game</a>.</b> This follow-up to my first Roll Call article looks at who actually racked up the numbers in this year's game.</li>
<li><b><a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/retropolis/wp/2017/06/14/the-congressional-baseball-game-has-been-a-great-bipartisan-tradition-for-100-years/?utm_term=.67301ab20a62" target="_blank">The Washington Post walked through the history of the Congressional Baseball Game, from 1909 to today</a>.</b> I'm quoted about the purpose of the game and why it was organized in the first place. The article also comes with some snazzy maps and a timeline of the game's historical results.</li>
<li><b><a href="http://www.cbsnews.com/news/congressional-baseball-game-history-tradition/" target="_blank">CBS This Morning interviewed me about the history of the game</a>. </b>My national TV debut! A brief overview of how the game was founded, Steve Scalise's gritty play, and why the game is so valuable to members like Linda Sánchez. </li>
<li><b><a href="http://www.latimes.com/nation/la-na-pol-baseball-congress-america-20170615-story.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter" target="_blank">Dave Montero of the Los Angeles Times wrote about baseball's power to unite</a>.</b> I contributed a few quotes, but Dave's writing really drives this beautiful piece. Former Congressional Baseball Game player Marty Russo talks about the thrill of playing on a major-league field, Dave walks through the most important moments when baseball and politics have intersected (such as President Bush's first pitch after 9/11), and baseball is treated as a metaphor for our political system.</li>
<li><b><a href="http://www.latimes.com/politics/essential/la-pol-ca-essential-politics-updates-california-highlights-from-the-1497649473-htmlstory.html" target="_blank">The Los Angeles Times also wrote about how California's eight congressional ballplayers did</a>. </b>Reporter Sarah D. Wire contacted me for the box score from the game; while the official box score isn't released by the game's scorekeepers until weeks later, I shared the play-by-play that I scrawled down on my own personal scorecard.</li>
</ul>
<div>
Last Wednesday's shooting was, without question, the biggest story in the 108-year history of the Congressional Baseball Game. Without the heroism of the three Capitol Police officers stationed at the practice, it could have been the bloodiest assassination incident in American history. Extremely fortunately, it was not that, but instead evolved into a moment of national unity, bringing awareness to a truly good-hearted charity tradition that did not deserve to be sullied in such a way but absolutely deserves the warm embrace it received from the nation on Thursday night. A full 24,959 spectators attended the game, more than double its previous record attendance; over $1.5 million were raised for charity, another record; and <a href="https://www.sporttechie.com/congressional-baseball-game-gets-nearly-six-million-views-on-facebook/" target="_blank">six million people</a> (!) watched the game as it was livestreamed on Facebook. Out of a horrible attack, I was thrilled to see some true goodness emerge.</div>
Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8280420876387355520.post-67389896026752535542017-05-12T10:49:00.000-04:002017-05-15T13:01:44.764-04:00How to Solve GerrymanderingEven in today's era of political polarization, there should be a few things we can all agree on. Puppies are cute. Arsenic is bad. Broccoli is the devil's food. And <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2015/03/01/this-is-the-best-explanation-of-gerrymandering-you-will-ever-see/?utm_term=.7a40fe6f8d46" target="_blank">letting politicians draw uncompetitive districts for their own benefit is bad for democracy</a>.<br />
<br />
Members of both parties have voiced support for taking partisanship out of the process of drawing congressional and legislative districts. And yet, instead of being the rare issue where both parties are eager to get something done, redistricting reform has proven nearly impossible to implement. The latest example of why comes from the great state of Maryland. Republican Governor Larry Hogan has made an independent redistricting commission <a href="http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/politics/bs-md-hogan-redistricting-20170303-story.html" target="_blank">one of his top priorities</a>. The Democratic legislature <a href="http://wtop.com/maryland/2017/03/md-senate-passes-controversial-redistricting-reform-bill/" target="_blank">passed a redistricting reform bill</a> with strong majorities. But, this week, Hogan <a href="http://www.baltimoresun.com/news/maryland/politics/bs-md-redistricting-veto-20170508-story.html" target="_blank">vetoed the measure</a>.<br />
<br />
The reason is pure self-interest. The Democratic bill would have only switched Maryland's redistricting process to an independent commission if five nearby states did so first; Hogan, contending that this will never happen, is holding out for a bill that would have Maryland unilaterally disarm. That too will never happen. While Democrats may support nonpartisan redistricting in the abstract, Maryland Democrats correctly see it as a threat to their power. Partisan redistricting always favors the dominant party, and a state as blue as Maryland gives Democrats the opportunity to creatively mold several more Democratic seats in Congress than they are entitled to. They’ve done just that, as 87.5% of Maryland’s congressional delegation (seven of eight) are Democrats despite the party receiving just 60.4% of the combined statewide vote in the last round of congressional elections.<br />
<br />
Maryland Democrats aren’t alone in this cartographical trickery. Most states gerrymander their districts, to varying degrees of blatancy, including several Republican-controlled states, including Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Texas. Like an arms race in an electoral cold war, neither side is going to give up its advantage until the other one does. And so reform languishes.<br />
<br />
The Democratic bill hints at a solution but doesn't go far enough. Would-be redistricting reformers can't just sit back waiting for other states to take action on their own; they have to make a deal. Maryland’s gerrymandering problem won’t be solved in Annapolis. In fact, the key to getting fair districts in the Old Line State actually lies in Indiana.<br />
<br />
If the Maryland Legislature is ever going to agree to an independent redistricting commission, Hogan needs to strike a deal with another state legislature—a Republican one—first. If Maryland and a red state both agree to stop gerrymandering, the Republican gain in Maryland and the Democratic gain in the other state would cancel each other out—but elections in both states would be more fair. And as it turns out, Indiana is the perfect partner in such a compact.<br />
<br />
Like Maryland Democrats, Indiana Republicans have succeeded at gerrymandering their home state. Although the GOP won only 54% of the congressional popular vote in Indiana in 2016, the party controls 78% of the congressional delegation—seven out of nine seats. Reformers in Indiana have likewise <a href="http://www.nwitimes.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/redistricting-reforms-failed-to-win-legislature-s-approval/article_3c54005d-47a8-535e-a19e-a6043cfb906d.html" target="_blank">tried to implement</a> an independent redistricting commission, getting a bill through the Indiana State House in 2014. But while the appetite was there, the effort was also eventually killed by entrenched interests. Indiana is also comparable in size to Maryland, making the two states a fair trade. If Indiana switched to an independent redistricting commission, it would likely elect five Republicans and four Democrats. That net loss of two Republicans would balance out the two-seat gain that the GOP would probably see under a fair congressional map in Maryland.<br />
<br />
Indiana is the best option on a short list of possible partners for Maryland. Wisconsin and Missouri each seats eight representatives—an even more precise match for Maryland—but Missouri already uses a hybrid redistricting system of legislators plus a commission. Wisconsin Republicans, meanwhile, are unlikely to go along since they risk losing control of this blue-tinged state altogether. Tennessee is another possible choice, with its Hoosier-esque 7–2 Republican congressional delegation, but it is more Republican than Maryland is Democratic.<br />
<br />
There are still some obstacles faced by such a “grand bargain” between states. First, congressional incumbents in danger of losing their safe seats would certainly pressure their legislators to vote against the plan. In addition, redistricting affects not only the composition of Congress, but also state legislatures themselves; Maryland Democrats and Indiana Republicans would not be enthusiastic about the prospect of reducing their majorities. Although she might regard the swap of congressional seats as equitable, the average Maryland Democrat probably doesn’t care enough about Indiana that she values a State Senate seat there as highly as one back home. And because the plan would redraw existing legislative districts, there is the reality that some of the people asked to vote for this arrangement would lose their seats as a direct result.<br />
<br />
Reformers would still have to lobby lawmakers hard to look past these issues, but they are not the main reason redistricting reform has stalled in Maryland and in state houses across the nation. Reformers cannot expect to make progress asking the majority party to give up leverage without getting anything in return. Perhaps soon the many states failing to end gerrymandering on their own will discover the elegant solution of looking to each other for help.Unknownnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8280420876387355520.post-1519898270000635272017-05-03T00:25:00.001-04:002017-05-03T01:30:41.911-04:00Is Boston Racist?By now you've heard about the <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/jonesad01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Adam Jones</a></strong> <a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/2017/05/01/orioles-adam-jones-berated-racist-taunts-fenway-park-peanuts/101187172/" target="_blank">incident</a>. Twenty-four hours later, the topic was still <i>the</i> news story in baseball, unspooling <a href="http://deadspin.com/how-not-to-react-to-news-of-boston-fan-racism-1794848944?utm_campaign=socialflow_deadspin_twitter&utm_source=deadspin_twitter&utm_medium=socialflow" target="_blank">new sub-threads</a> and inspiring <a href="https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2017/05/02/racist-taunts-stir-ancient-pains-boston/o4p3DXlNGof6QbspBDjLUN/story.html" target="_blank">much larger debates</a> (anyone still think <a href="http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/447060/espn-layoffs-stick-sports" target="_blank">sports isn't political</a>?). They'll move on, eventually. But in my hometown of Boston, the incident has exposed an ugly truth and forced a great deal of introspection that will—or at least should—linger. <br />
<br />
We Bostonians have an inferiority complex, and <a href="http://www.bostonglobe.com/opinion/2017/04/04/boston-less-racism-still-racism/K5amzGISMUfQsRn6ODpnKJ/story.html?p1=Article_Related_Box_Article_More" target="_blank">one of our most tender spots</a> is when the rest of the country plays the "Boston is racist" card. A cosmopolitan, liberal city, Boston certainly doesn't see itself that way—yet at the same time anyone with a more than passing connection to the city carries around the hidden shame of the city's <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boston_busing_desegregation" target="_blank">violent resistance to busing in the 1970s</a>. Within my lifetime, the Boston media, city leaders, and the collective masses were all <a href="https://www.boston.com/news/local-news/2014/10/22/the-charles-stuart-murders-and-the-racist-branding-boston-just-cant-seem-to-shake" target="_blank">guilty of a rush to judgment</a> about the murder of Carol Stuart, a young suburban mother-to-be killed not by a black carjacker, but by her white husband. When an African American baseball player is called the N-word at Fenway Park, it's impossible not to draw the connection. <br />
<br />
My first impression was optimism that our city was at least viewing Jones's assault with open eyes. Instead of attacking Jones or ignoring the story entirely, the Boston elite faced up to it. The Boston Globe led with the story all day on its website, and <a href="http://boston.cbslocal.com/2017/05/02/mayor-walsh-calls-fenway-racist-taunts-unacceptable/" target="_blank">Mayor Marty Walsh</a> and <a href="https://twitter.com/MassGovernor/status/859401293340737537" target="_blank">Governor Charlie Baker</a> both issued swift statements of condemnation early this morning. Walsh, an Irish Catholic from Dorchester (still a demographic profile that's more associated with <a href="https://commonwealthmagazine.org/politics/bostons-presidential-election-numbers/" target="_blank">Trumpian intolerance</a> than the bleeding-heart inclusiveness of the <a href="http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=People%27s%20Republic%20of%20Cambridge" target="_blank">Cantabrigian university student</a>), had particularly strong words: "If they claim to be a sports fan, they’re not a sports fan—nothing but a racist." Boston finally seemed to be acknowledging that, yes, it had a problem with racism it desperately needed to fix.<br />
<br />
There was also a common thread in Walsh's and Baker's words, as <a href="http://www.bostonglobe.com/opinion/2017/05/02/stop-pretending-boston-something-not/bjzFrEf7NpLzdLHsmlltAM/story.html" target="_blank">Globe columnist Renée Graham pointed out</a>: "This is not what Massachusetts and Boston are about." So maybe the sensitivity remained. Walsh and Baker were acknowledging that Boston has racist elements, but also insisting that, at its core, Boston was a welcoming and tolerant place. Well, OK. They're politicians—they are going to believe (or at least say they believe) the best about their constituents. But it's worth noting that Walsh's administration last year kicked off a <a href="https://www.boston.gov/calendar/boston-talks-about-racism" target="_blank">series of town halls</a> "aimed at bringing conversations about racism, healing, and policy work into all Boston neighborhoods." At one of the meetings, <a href="http://bunewsservice.com/boston-confronts-a-history-of-racism/" target="_blank">Walsh said, point-blank</a>, "Boston has an issue with racism." Whether he thinks "racist" or "tolerant" is a more fitting adjective for Boston in 2017, Walsh clearly understands that there is still racism left to overcome in the city. <br />
<br />
<div>
</div>
That was the city's elite, however. How did the hoi polloi react? Twitter unfortunately became the instrument by which this was measured, and the results were mixed at best. Liberal baseball Twitter pounced upon <a href="https://twitter.com/AlbertBreer/status/859414366462115842" target="_blank">this tweet</a> by NFL writer Albert Breer that summed up the denial of many Bostonians: "Is it horrible to want some proof? I dunno. I've probably been to 200 games at Fenway in my life. Never heard a slur yelled at a player." (Never mind that Jones had no reason to lie, and Boston fans have a <a href="http://www.complex.com/sports/2017/05/ugly-history-boston-being-most-racist-sports-city-america" target="_blank">reputation for racial taunting among African American athletes</a>.) However, I saw <a href="https://twitter.com/Rob_Coh/status/859404542626197504" target="_blank">just as</a> <a href="http://www.complex.com/sports/2017/05/ugly-history-boston-being-most-racist-sports-city-america" target="_blank">many</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/stevesignore/status/859334900159315968" target="_blank">tweets</a> from Bostonians (not to mention my own reaction) expressing their unqualified disgust for their fellow Red Sox fans in the bleachers Monday night, so I hardly think Breer's viewpoint is universally held here. Twitter attracts a broad element of society, including its dregs. You can find pretty much any opinion on there if you're looking for it. Overall, I think Boston took responsibility for the incident, as it should have—as it must have if we're going to make sure it isn't repeated.<br />
<br />
It would be nice if that were the final word. But that inferiority complex is acting up again, because even those of us who own up to the racism of drunk Red Sox fans can't help but get defensive about the resurgent blanket narrative that "Boston is racist." We object to the very logic that people accuse us of: that our entire community should be stereotyped by the actions of a foolish few. This is unfair, of course; most people in Boston are not racist, as illustrated most recently by the classy <a href="https://twitter.com/MLB/status/859550612341620737?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw&ref_url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.csnne.com%2Fboston-red-sox%2Fbaltimore-orioles-adam-jones-receives-standing-ovation-boston-red-sox-fans">standing ovation</a> Red Sox fans gave Jones at Tuesday's game. The ovation did not undo what happened to Jones, but neither does what happened to Jones negate the ovation. Clearly, Boston has a racist underbelly, but what percentage of a city's residents have to belong to that fringe in order to say the city as a whole is racist? One bigot does not a racist city make, but a place doesn't need to be 100% pure-grade racist either.<br />
<br />
This is something outsiders fail to realize when they <a href="https://twitter.com/marisznx/status/859513292146044928" target="_blank">smugly ask</a> how Boston can be considered one of the most liberal cities in America while still struggling with racism. The two facts have little to do with each other. <a href="http://baseballot.blogspot.com/2016/01/how-trump-dominates-in-americas-bluest.html" target="_blank">Massachusetts isn't a monolith</a> where 100% of its citizens are latte-sipping progressives who nonetheless harbor secret racial animosities. Yes, it's true, 60% of Bay Staters voted for Hillary Clinton in November, more than 45 other states. But that means 33% voted for Donald Trump—<a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/25/upshot/measuring-donald-trumps-supporters-for-intolerance.html" target="_blank">at least some of whom were motivated by prejudice</a>. (Trump also won the state handily during the primary.) And yes, some Democrats are racist as well, even if only in subtler ways. It was in dark blue Cambridge that <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henry_Louis_Gates_arrest_controversy" target="_blank">someone called 911 to report that famed African American Studies scholar Henry Louis Gates looked suspicious</a> as he attempted to open the jammed front door of his Harvard Square townhouse. These uncomfortable truths do nothing to change the fact that Massachusetts has been at the forefront of the progressive movement (inaugurating, among other things, <a href="http://www.msnbc.com/msnbc/ten-years-ago-massachusetts-introduced-us-gay-marriage" target="_blank">same-sex marriage</a> and <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Massachusetts_health_care_reform" target="_blank">Obamacare</a>), including on issues of <a href="https://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2016/07/21/somerville-mayor-says-keep-black-lives-matter-banner-city-hall/YvKawvB38D3kE1QjYS1W9O/story.html" target="_blank">racial</a> <a href="https://www.bostonglobe.com/metro/2017/02/16/senators-push-criminal-justice-reform/4YL5GR6jTjN8nC3tc5Q06H/story.html" target="_blank">justice</a>, which aren't abstract to them either: Massachusetts was home to the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edward_Brooke">first black U.S. senator</a> and the <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deval_Patrick">second black governor</a> ever to be elected.<br />
<br />
The question is whether Boston is racist with tolerant elements or tolerant with racist elements. And I honestly don't know which is correct. Boston hasn't earned the benefit of the doubt with its history; in addition to the nationally publicized busing crisis, Celtics players including the great Bill Russell <a href="http://www.bostonmagazine.com/2007/12/playing-through-the-pain/" target="_blank">confronted blatant racism here</a> during the 1970s and '80s. But Boston is also a <a href="http://www.brinknews.com/new-challenges-for-comeback-cities-boston-case-study/" target="_blank">very different city</a> than it was back then, and the racist reputation it earned 40 years ago gives us only an incomplete picture of the present day. The Jones incident did elicit a <a href="http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2017/05/02/sabathia-racism-when-you-boston-expect/U8Mh1ja3oaOgX3F0VX9GEI/story.html" target="_blank">disturbing comment</a> out of fellow African American ballplayer <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/sabatc.01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">C.C. Sabathia</a></strong>, who said he has "never been called the N-word" anywhere but Boston (albeit not since before 2009); "when you go to Boston, expect it." Former MLB outfielder <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wellsve01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Vernon Wells</a></strong> <a href="https://twitter.com/VernonWells10/status/859505013214908416" target="_blank">chimed in</a> that he "was only warned about two stadiums where racially motivated comments could occur...Fenway was one." In 2007, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=matthga02,matthga01&search=Gary+Matthews&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Gary Matthews Jr.</a></strong>, then of the Angels, <a href="http://articles.latimes.com/2007/aug/18/sports/sp-angrep18" target="_blank">called Boston</a> "one of the few places where you hear racial comments." But then that reminds you that other fan bases have <a href="http://bunewsservice.com/boston-confronts-a-history-of-racism/" target="_blank">brazenly engaged in bigotry</a> as well. Athletics outfielder <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/davisra01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Rajai Davis</a></strong>—who has never played for the Red Sox and has no apparent reason to hold back about the city—<a href="https://twitter.com/JHickey3/status/859519965946400769" target="_blank">said Tuesday</a>, "It's not a Boston problem. It's a national problem."<br />
<br />
And there's another confounder. As we learned <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-partisan/wp/2015/02/27/from-trayvon-martin-to-black-lives-matter/?utm_term=.6b90d8ee0145" target="_blank">seemingly</a> <a href="http://archive.boston.com/bostonglobe/editorial_opinion/oped/articles/2011/05/02/birthers_shameful_racist_roots/" target="_blank">nonstop</a> for eight years after we supposedly overcame it by electing Barack Obama, the United States is still infested with latent racism. Other cities—<a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1992_Los_Angeles_riots" target="_blank">Los Angeles</a>, <a href="https://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/14/us/chicago-police-dept-plagued-by-systemic-racism-task-force-finds.html?_r=0" target="_blank">Chicago</a>, <a href="https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2015/06/19/the-remarkable-racial-segregation-of-washington-d-c-in-1-map/?utm_term=.65a0102b5dbd" target="_blank">Washington, DC</a>—have racial records as troubled as Boston's. Heck, it's not even limited to this country—the last time Adam Jones was subjected to racial slurs, it was <a href="http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/baseball/blue-jays-fans-beer-can-throwing-racial-slur-adam-jones-toronto-rogers-centre-orioles/article32254718/" target="_blank">in Toronto during last year's Wild Card game</a>. All this makes it even harder to determine whether Boston is a particular hotbed for bigotry or merely part of a wider problem, from which even coastal liberal bastions are not safe. Of course, the fact that other cities are racist too doesn't make Boston not racist.<br />
<br />
So is Boston racist? Ultimately, it's semantic. I have a hard time disagreeing with someone who says Boston is racist according to a certain definition of the term. Personally, though, I would say instead that it has a race problem. So does the entire country—that shouldn't be controversial. Is Boston's worse? I don't know. It certainly was historically; it might still be. We've made enough progress since the 1970s that we're now in a gray zone where the slurs directed at Adam Jones could plausibly be either the residue of Boston's prejudicial past or a symptom of a <a href="http://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/u-s-hate-crimes-20-percent-2016-fueled-election-campaign-n733306" target="_blank">national trend</a>. But it also doesn't really matter, because neither is good enough. Even after Monday night's vulgarity, I love my hometown. I love it because of all the things it does right—ranked at or near the top in education, medical care, economic vitality. With that pedigree, there's no excuse for having even nationally average levels of racism. We are the <a href="http://www.ushistory.org/us/3c.asp" target="_blank">City on a Hill</a>, meant from our founding to be an example for the rest of the world to strive toward. The same self-righteousness that makes Bostonians so protective and such easy targets for the rest of the country should be a unique motivator to clean up our act. If you think, in the face of so much evidence, that Boston is already perfect, you're interpreting this Hub of the Universe thing wrong. Instead, it's the nagging conviction that <i>we should be better</i> that propels us there. Unknownnoreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8280420876387355520.post-53315215292912932412017-04-16T16:37:00.001-04:002017-04-16T16:37:23.719-04:00Predicting the 2017 Season—American LeagueThough the baseball season is well underway, I still have preseason loose ends to tie up. Earlier this month, I issued my usual—and simultaneously unusual—<a href="http://baseballot.blogspot.com/2017/04/predicting-2017-seasonnational-league.html" target="_blank">National League predictions</a> for the 2017 baseball season. For those new to the blog, these aren't your average team previews. Instead, I predict the final win-loss records in each division but also issue a few wildly specific predictions for each team. Then, at the end of the season, I'll look back and see how insightful—or hilariously off the mark—I was. Here's part two of this <a href="http://baseballot.blogspot.com/2016/12/what-i-didnt-expect-in-baseball-in-2016.html" target="_blank">doomed exercise</a>: the American League. <br />
<br />
<h3>AL East</h3><br />
<b>1. Boston Red Sox (102–60, 1st playoff seed)</b> <br />
<ul><li><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/sandopa01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Pablo Sandoval</a></strong> will scream back to relevance with 25 home runs and a positive number of Defensive Runs Saved.</li>
<li><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/swihabl01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Blake Swihart</a></strong> will rake in AAA as <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/leonsa01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Sandy León</a></strong> sits below the Mendoza line. A change will be made by Memorial Day.</li>
<li>All of Boston's unreliable starting pitchers from last year, including <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/pomerdr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Drew Pomeranz</a></strong> and <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/priceda01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">David Price</a></strong> (when he pitches), will right the ship. While Price is out, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=rodried05,rodried01&search=Eduardo+Rodriguez&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Eduardo Rodríguez</a></strong> will provide similar value.</li>
<li>Boston's staff will lead baseball in complete games and shutouts.</li>
<li><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/smithca02.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Carson Smith</a></strong> will return as the AL's best reliever in the second half.</li>
<li>The Red Sox will defeat the Nationals in a five-game World Series. More Boston fans than Washington fans will attend the games in DC.</li>
</ul><br />
<b>2. Toronto Blue Jays (87–75, 1st Wild Card)</b> <br />
<ul><li><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=bautijo02,bautijo01&search=Jose+Bautista&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">José Bautista</a></strong> will bounce back so convincingly that he will be as valuable as his 2016 self and <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/e/encared01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Edwin Encarnación</a></strong> combined.</li>
<li>The Jays will have a losing record in games started by <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/moralke01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Kendrys Morales</a></strong>.</li>
<li><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/stromma01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Marcus Stroman</a></strong> and <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/happja01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">J.A. Happ</a></strong> will swap 2016 ERAs.</li>
</ul><br />
<b>3. Tampa Bay Rays (85–77, 2nd Wild Card)</b> <br />
<ul><li><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/archech01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Chris Archer</a></strong> will again be one of the best pitchers in baseball, and <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/snellbl01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Blake Snell</a></strong> will join him in a monster breakout year. The Rays will have the league's best rotation.</li>
<li><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/o/odorija01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Jake Odorizzi</a></strong> will pitch a shutout over the Blue Jays in the Wild Card game, but then Tampa Bay will be swept by Boston in the ALDS.</li>
<li><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/souzast01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Steven Souza</a></strong> will finally have the 20/20 breakout season everyone expected, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rasmuco01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Colby Rasmus</a></strong> and <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=duffyma02,duffyma01&search=Matt+Duffy&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Matt Duffy</a></strong> will both match their career-high WARs, but the Rays will still have the division's worst offense.</li>
</ul><br />
<b>4. New York Yankees (83–79)</b> <br />
<ul><li><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/birdgr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Greg Bird</a></strong> and <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/judgeaa01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Aaron Judge</a></strong> be the mini modern Mantle and Maris, going back and forth all season as the Yankees team leader.</li>
<li><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/severlu01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Luis Severino</a></strong> and <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/pinedmi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Michael Pineda</a></strong> will both lower their ERAs below 4.00.</li>
<li><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=frazie000cli?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Clint Frazier</a></strong> will be traded away at midseason for rotation help after not conforming to the "Yankees way."</li>
</ul><br />
<b>5. Baltimore Orioles (80–82)</b> <br />
<ul><li>With a .330 average, 40 home runs, 120 RBI, and a Gold Glove to satisfy traditionalists and 8.5 WAR and 30 DRS for the stat nerds, it will finally be <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/machama01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Manny Machado</a></strong>'s turn for an MVP award.</li>
<li>Every Oriole starting pitcher except <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mileywa01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Wade Miley</a></strong> will give up more runs in 2017 than in 2016—yes, even <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/jimenub01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Ubaldo Jiménez</a></strong>.</li>
</ul><br />
<h3>AL Central</h3><br />
<b>1. Cleveland Indians (93–69, 2nd playoff seed)</b> <br />
<ul><li>After the injury bug bit nearly their whole rotation last fall, the 2017 Indians will become the rare team to use only five starting pitchers the entire year. It will be a big factor in getting them to the ALCS.</li>
<li>On the strength of his creative bullpen use, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/f/francte01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Terry Francona</a></strong> will win a second straight Manager of the Year award.</li>
<li><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/brantmi02.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Michael Brantley</a></strong> will get injured again and finish the year with fewer than 200 plate appearances.</li>
</ul><br />
<b>2. Kansas City Royals (82–80)</b> <br />
<ul><li><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/solerjo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Jorge Soler</a></strong> will lead Kansas City position players in WAR.</li>
<li><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hosmeer01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Eric Hosmer</a></strong> will have the 20th-best season for a first baseman in the American League—and will get the first-largest contract for one this offseason.</li>
<li>Another injury-plagued season for <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cainlo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Lorenzo Cain</a></strong> will end up being a blessing in disguise for the Royals, who will afford to keep him this winter after all.</li>
<li>With a 2.50 ERA and 240 strikeouts, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/duffyda01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Danny Duffy</a></strong> will win his first Cy Young Award.</li>
</ul><br />
<b>3. Detroit Tigers (76–86)</b> <br />
<ul><li><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/z/zimmejo02.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Jordan Zimmermann</a></strong> will rue signing with Detroit as he becomes a pure contact pitcher (setting a career low in strikeout percentage), but the Tigers' league-worst defense fails to convert them into outs.</li>
<li>After the Tigers' 10th blown save of the year—in May—<strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/ausmubr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Brad Ausmus</a></strong> will finally be shown the door.</li>
<li>With the team hovering around .500 at the trade deadline, ownership will finally give the OK to blow it all up and rebuild.</li>
</ul><br />
<b>4. Chicago White Sox (73–89)</b> <br />
<ul><li><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/anderti01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Tim Anderson</a></strong> will respond to his recent contract extension by virtually evaporating as an offensive force. He will show next to no power, will walk fewer than 10 times, and will split the season between pinch-running duties and AAA.</li>
<li><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rodonca01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Carlos Rodon</a></strong> will shave a run off his ERA and step neatly into the role of White Sox ace after <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/q/quintjo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">José Quintana</a></strong> is traded.</li>
<li><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/giolilu01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Lucas Giolito</a></strong> will put it together at AAA and make a tantalizing White Sox debut: giving up two runs and striking out 14 over seven innings (in other words, he will finally be the <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/strasst01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Stephen Strasburg</a></strong> <a href="http://m.mlb.com/news/article/10944784/" target="_blank">clone</a> Nats fans always wanted him to be).</li>
</ul><br />
<b>5. Minnesota Twins (68–94)</b> <br />
<ul><li>This will be the year that <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/berrijo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">José Berríos</a></strong> and <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/buxtoby01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Byron Buxton</a></strong> right the ship. With them leading their respective sides of the ball, the Twins will begin to look like a franchise with a direction again.</li>
<li><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/doziebr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Brian Dozier</a></strong> will be a completely different hitter, hitting just .210 with 10 home runs and nearly 200 strikeouts.</li>
<li><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/sanomi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Miguel Sanó</a></strong> will slug 40 homers but have a WAR of 1.0 thanks to atrocious defense.</li>
</ul><br />
<h3>AL West</h3><br />
<b>1. Houston Astros (89–73, 3rd playoff seed)</b> <br />
<ul><li>For his next trick, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/altuvjo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">José Altuve</a></strong> will captivate America this summer with a hitting streak that hits 50 games.</li>
<li><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bregmal01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Alex Bregman</a></strong> won't be <i>terrible,</i> exactly, but he'll put up a decidedly meh first full season in the bigs.</li>
<li><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/beltrca01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Carlos Beltrán</a></strong> will continue sipping from the fountain of youth. His full-time DH-hood will enable him to hit 30 homers.</li>
<li>For the third straight year, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=mcculla02,mcculla01&search=Lance+McCullers&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Lance McCullers</a></strong> will put up an ERA of 3.22—but he'll do it over 200 innings and lead the AL in strikeouts.</li>
<li><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/devench02.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Chris Devenski</a></strong> will step into the starting rotation and post a 1.50 second-half ERA.</li>
</ul><br />
<b>2. Seattle Mariners (83–79)</b> <br />
<ul><li><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hernafe02.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Félix Hernández</a></strong> will post a career-low strikeout rate and flirt with his career-low ERA of 4.52 from 2006. </li>
<li><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/smylydr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Drew Smyly</a></strong> will make up for it, though, pitching to a 3.20 ERA thanks to an uber-low BABIP driven by the M's' great outfield defense (40+ DRS).</li>
<li><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/paxtoja01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">James Paxton</a></strong> will finally pitch to his 2.80 FIP.</li>
<li><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/segurje01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Jean Segura</a></strong> will be be huge bust. Without the aid of an inflated BABIP and Chase Field, he will return to the .270-ish wOBA that has characterized three of his five MLB seasons. <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hanigmi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Mitch Haniger</a></strong> will turn out to be the more valuable addition from that trade, even in the short term.</li>
<li>Prospects <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=oneill000tyl?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Tyler O'Neill</a></strong> and <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/vogelda01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Dan Vogelbach</a></strong> will be on-base machines from the time they are promoted to the majors. Only with them playing significant roles will the Mariners be a complete enough team to break their playoff drought, now at 16 years. </li>
</ul><br />
<b>3. Texas Rangers (77–85)</b> <br />
<ul><li>A team that benefited from incredible luck last year will be one of the unluckiest this year. They will have a losing record in one-run games, and they will lead the AL in days spent on the DL.</li>
<li><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/profaju01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Jurickson Profar</a></strong> will win the batting title.</li>
<li><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gomezca01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Carlos Gómez</a></strong> will revert back to his Astros form, and he will begin losing playing time to a resurgent <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=deshide02,deshide01&search=Delino+DeShields&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Delino DeShields Jr.</a></strong>, who will sport a .350 OBP and 30 stolen bases.</li>
<li><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cashnan01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Andrew Cashner</a></strong> and <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rossty01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Tyson Ross</a></strong> will both be lucky to post ERAs under 5.00 in Arlington.</li>
</ul><br />
<b>4. Los Angeles Angels (75–87)</b> <br />
<ul><li><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/richaga01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Garrett Richards</a></strong> will win AL Comeback Player of the Year.</li>
<li><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bedroca01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Cam Bedrosian</a></strong> will not relinquish the closer's role to <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/streehu01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Huston Street</a></strong> when the latter returns from the DL.</li>
<li><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/troutmi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Mike Trout</a></strong> will post a down year: just 8.0 WAR.</li>
</ul><br />
<b>5. Oakland Athletics (73–89)</b> <br />
<ul><li>Revenge of <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/beanebi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Billy Beane</a></strong>! All of the A's' major free-agent signings—<strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/joycema01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Matt Joyce</a></strong>, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/davisra01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Rajai Davis</a></strong>, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/garcija01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Santiago Casilla</a></strong>, and <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/plouftr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Trevor Plouffe</a></strong>—will be worth at least 1.5 WAR.</li>
<li><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/grayso01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Sonny Gray</a></strong> will continue to be a 75 ERA+ pitcher. His days of consistently getting outs are over.</li>
<li><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cottojh01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Jharel Cotton</a></strong> may not actually win Rookie of the Year—<strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/beninan01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Andrew Benintendi</a></strong> will benefit from East Coast bias—but he will deserve to, with 160 innings of a 3.40 ERA.</li>
<li><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/manaese01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Sean Manaea</a></strong> will be the first of the 2017 season to throw a no-hitter, and he'll go to the All-Star Game to boot.</li>
</ul>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-8280420876387355520.post-72194576635171709922017-04-10T10:39:00.000-04:002017-04-10T10:39:25.651-04:00Predicting the 2017 Season—National LeagueThey may be a week late, but it will take more than an ill-timed <a href="https://www.instagram.com/explore/tags/rakichroadtrip/" target="_blank">cross-country roadtrip</a> to keep me from cogitating on the <strike>upcoming</strike> current baseball season. I don't do season previews in the usual sense—no doubt you've already read a zillion of those from analysts more plugged in than I. Instead, I predict the final win-loss records in each division but also issue a few wildly specific predictions for each team. Then, at the end of the season, I'll <a href="http://baseballot.blogspot.com/2016/12/what-i-didnt-expect-in-baseball-in-2016.html" target="_blank">look back</a> and see how insightful—or hilariously off the mark—I was. First up: the Senior Circuit. <br />
<br />
<h3>NL East</h3><br />
<b>1. Washington Nationals (97–65, 2nd playoff seed)</b> <br />
<ul><li><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/harpebr03.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Bryce Harper</a></strong> will post another monster season even better than his 2015. He will surpass <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/troutmi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Mike Trout</a></strong> with over 10.0 WAR. He'll again be the runaway MVP.</li>
<li>Over half of the Nats' lineup will be worth more than 4.0 WAR: Harper, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=eatonad02,eatonad01&search=Adam+Eaton&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Adam Eaton</a></strong>, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/turnetr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Trea Turner</a></strong>, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rendoan01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Anthony Rendon</a></strong>, and <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/murphda08.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Daniel Murphy</a></strong>. <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/werthja01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Jayson Werth</a></strong>, improbably, won't be far behind, with one last gasp as an offensive catalyst.</li>
<li>For the third straight season, Mike Rizzo will swing a deal for a closer at the trade deadline—and this time it will be for no less than <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/storedr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Drew Storen</a></strong>. Disaster will, predictably, ensue.</li>
<li>Washington will advance beyond the NLDS for the first time and defeat the Cubs in a thrilling seven-game NLCS. Unfortunately, they'll run into a buzzsaw in the American League champion.</li>
</ul><br />
<b>2. New York Mets (91–71, 1st Wild Card)</b> <br />
<ul><li><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/degroja01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Jacob deGrom</a></strong> will be fully healthy and join <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/syndeno01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Noah Syndergaard</a></strong> as a top Cy Young contender, as both exceed 200 innings (and 200 strikeouts).</li>
<li><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/matzst01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Steven Matz</a></strong> will also break out with an ERA below 3.00. <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/harvema01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Matt Harvey</a></strong> will be respectable again, but that will only make him the team's fourth-best starter.</li>
<li>With <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/dudalu01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Lucas Duda</a></strong> suffering through lingering back problems, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bruceja01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Jay Bruce</a></strong> will play a lot of first base. He will finally win over Mets fans by giving them a .750 OPS there, as well as enabling a strong season by <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/confomi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Michael Conforto</a></strong> with the move.</li>
<li><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=rosari000ame?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Amed Rosario</a></strong> and <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cabreas01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Asdrúbal Cabrera</a></strong> will end the season on the left side of the Mets' infield, with <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=reyesjo01,reyesjo02&search=Jose+Reyes&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">José Reyes</a></strong> banished from Flushing for good.</li>
</ul><br />
<b>3. Miami Marlins (77–85)</b> <br />
<ul><li>World Baseball Classic number-eight hitter <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/stantmi03.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Giancarlo Stanton</a></strong> will be the first Marlin ever to top 50 home runs, leading the National League.</li>
<li>While <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/chenwe02.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Wei-Yin Chen</a></strong> will return to a 120 ERA+, <strong><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/volqued01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com">Edinson Vólquez</a></strong> will again have negative value.</li>
<li>Led by <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/barraky01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Kyle Barraclough</a></strong>'s 5.0 K/BB ratio, the Marlins will trail only the Dodgers for the NL's stingiest bullpen.</li>
<li>By the end of the season, Jeb Bush will be the proud new owner of the Marlins.</li>
</ul><br />
<b>4. Atlanta Braves (71–91)</b> <br />
<ul><li><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/garcija02.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Jaime García</a></strong> will finally pitch a full season <i>and</i> do it well, setting himself up to be one of next winter's better free agents.</li>
<li><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=johnsji04,johnsji03&search=Jim+Johnson&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Jim Johnson</a></strong> will fall apart for the second time in his career, as his fastball velocity dips to below 90 miles per hour. Opponents will hit .350 off him before his midseason release.</li>
<li>The safest prediction on this page: <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/swansda01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Dansby Swanson</a></strong> will be your 2017 NL Rookie of the Year.</li>
<li>Traffic woes and shoddy construction will get SunTrust Park off to a rough start. Attendance will be well below estimates; the park will draw fewer fans than Turner Field did last season.</li>
</ul><br />
<b>5. Philadelphia Phillies (64–98)</b> <br />
<ul><li><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/velasvi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Vince Velasquez</a></strong> will prove he belongs in the starting rotation, pairing his well-known 25% strikeout rate with 18 quality starts.</li>
<li>Velasquez, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hellije01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Jeremy Hellickson</a></strong>, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/n/nolaaa01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Aaron Nola</a></strong>, and <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/e/eickhje01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Jerad Eickhoff</a></strong> will at times this spring resemble a poor man's Phearsome Phour, but how many of them will be around at the end of the season? The guess here is not Nola (Tommy John surgery) or Hellickson (traded).</li>
<li><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/buchhcl01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Clay Buchholz</a></strong> will lead the league in home runs allowed (32).</li>
<li>The no-name offense will be the lowest-scoring in baseball.</li>
</ul><br />
<h3>NL Central</h3><br />
<b>1. Chicago Cubs (100–62, 1st playoff seed)</b> <br />
<ul><li><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/daviswa01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Wade Davis</a></strong> will struggle with his control in his recovery from injury. By the end of the season, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/u/ueharko01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Koji Uehara</a></strong> will have more saves.</li>
<li>The rotation will be the closest thing to a weakness on the North Side. <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hendrky01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Kyle Hendricks</a></strong> will regress to league average, and the fifth starter's job will remain unsettled for most of the year.</li>
<li><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/heywaja01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Jason Heyward</a></strong> has a big bounceback in him. He'll hit .290/.350/.450, paired with his usual 20 Defensive Runs Saved, for a 5.0 WAR season.</li>
<li><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/z/zobribe01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Ben Zobrist</a></strong>, on the other hand, will run into a brick wall. His modest value with the bat will be offset by the worst defensive season of his career.</li>
</ul><br />
<b>2. Saint Louis Cardinals (89–73, 2nd Wild Card)</b> <br />
<ul><li><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/molinya01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Yadier Molina</a></strong>'s pedestrian .250/.300/.380 slash line will inaugurate the decline phase of his career.</li>
<li><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wainwad01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Adam Wainwright</a></strong> and <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wachami01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Michael Wacha</a></strong> will both rebound to above-average ERAs (say, 3.70), and <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lynnla01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Lance Lynn</a></strong> will pick up where he left off before surgery, but <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=martica04,martica03,martica02&search=Carlos+Martinez&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Carlos Martínez</a></strong> has permanently supplanted them as the Cardinals ace.</li>
<li>A bone-headed strategic move by <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mathemi01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Mike Matheny</a></strong> will be the reason for the Cardinals' extra-innings loss to the Mets in the Wild Card Game.</li>
</ul><br />
<b>3. Pittsburgh Pirates (81–81)</b> <br />
<ul><li>The most important question for the 2017 Pirates will be answered early, when <strong><a rel="nofollow" target="_blank" href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mccutan01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com">Andrew McCutchen</a></strong> wins Player of the Month for April. He'll finish with a classic McCutchen season: .300/.400/.500.</li>
<li><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/t/taillja01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Jameson Taillon</a></strong> will zoom past <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/colege01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Gerrit Cole</a></strong> as Pittsburgh's best pitcher, and his 2.50 ERA will put him squarely in the Cy Young conversation.</li>
<li>The Pirates will have the NL's best outfield—but its worst infield.</li>
<li><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kangju01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Jung Ho Kang</a></strong>'s personal and legal problems will prevent him from returning to the Pirates, and the once-revelatory third baseman will wash out of Major League Baseball.</li>
</ul><br />
<b>4. Milwaukee Brewers (72–90)</b> <br />
<ul><li>Yeah, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/broxtke01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Keon Broxton</a></strong> and <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/santado01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Domingo Santana</a></strong> may strike out a combined 300 times, but who cares? They will both be fantasy studs, especially in OBP leagues. Look for 20 homers and 30 steals from Broxton, and a mirror-image 30/20 season from Santana. Both will get on base at .350 clips despite .250 batting averages.</li>
<li>As quickly as <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/v/villajo01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Jonathan Villar</a></strong>'s stock rose, it will come crashing down. He'll hit just .240, and his runs scored and stolen bases will both be slashed in half.</li>
<li><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/guerrju02.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Junior Guerra</a></strong> may not be the second coming of <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/greinza01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Zack Greinke</a></strong>, but he'll continue to give the Brewers a chance to win every time out. He'll be the <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/z/zimmejo02.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Jordan Zimmermann</a></strong> of Milwaukee's rebuilding effort: not the best pitcher on their next winning team, but still good enough to contribute to it.</li>
</ul><br />
<b>5. Cincinnati Reds (61–101)</b> <br />
<ul><li><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/desclan01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Anthony DeSclafani</a></strong> will endure another frustrating season of injuries. His recovery from a sprained UCL will last nearly all season, until he debuts in late September—and throws a no-hitter in his one and only start.</li>
<li>This will finally be the year that gets <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=pricebr10,pricebr99&search=Bryan+Price&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Bryan Price</a></strong> fired. Then again, if 2015 and 2016 didn't do it...</li>
</ul><br />
<h3>NL West</h3><br />
<b>1. Los Angeles Dodgers (92–70, 3rd playoff seed)</b> <br />
<ul><li>Every Dodgers starting pitcher will miss at least eight starts. Even last year's reliable <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/maedake01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Kenta Maeda</a></strong> will be plagued by some of the "irregularities" found in his physical when he first signed out of Japan.</li>
<li>Every year, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kershcl01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Clayton Kershaw</a></strong> has found a way to top his seemingly untoppable season from the year before. How will he do it this year? By tossing a 21-strikeout perfect game—by every measure, the best pitching performance in baseball history.</li>
<li>A 2.79 ERA. 6.3 hits per nine innings. A 9.7/4.8 K/BB ratio. Kershaw's first full season, or <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/u/uriasju01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Julio Urías</a></strong>'s?</li>
<li><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/puigya01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Yasiel Puig</a></strong> will match his 137 wRC+ from September of last year, after a demotion to the minor leagues.</li>
<li>LA's uncertain left-field situation will be solved when <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/register/player.fcgi?id=bellin000cod?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Cody Bellinger</a></strong> forces himself into the lineup in mid-siummer.</li>
</ul><br />
<b>2. San Francisco Giants (84–78)</b> <br />
<ul><li>Despite the addition of <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/melanma01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Mark Melancon</a></strong>, the bullpen will still be a weakness for the Giants. Ironically, their fans will look on longingly as the likes of <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/garcija01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Santiago Casilla</a></strong> and <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/romose01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Sergio Romo</a></strong> dominate elsewhere in California while the San Francisco relief corps comes in below average.</li>
<li>Handing starting jobs to <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/n/nunezed02.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Eduardo Núñez</a></strong> and <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/parkeja03.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Jarrett Parker</a></strong> will prove to be a fatal move for a team in need of offensive help. As age saps talent all around the diamond, San Francisco will post its worst offensive season since the 2011 squad's 91 OPS+.</li>
<li>On the bright side, one Giant will finally get his due: <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/bumgama01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Madison Bumgarner</a></strong> will take home the Cy Young trophy.</li>
</ul><br />
<b>3. Colorado Rockies (83–79)</b> <br />
<ul><li>Once he recovers from his broken hand, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/desmoia01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Ian Desmond</a></strong> will be a beast in Coors Field—though he'd be much more valuable anywhere else on the diamond.</li>
<li><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/dahlda01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">David Dahl</a></strong> will surpass outfield-mates <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/gonzaca01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Carlos González</a></strong> and <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/blackch02.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Charlie Blackmon</a></strong> in WAR.</li>
<li>The rotation of <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/g/grayjo02.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Jon Gray</a></strong>, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/chatwty01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Tyler Chatwood</a></strong>, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/a/anderty01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Tyler Anderson</a></strong>, and—eventually and especially—<strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hoffmje02.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Jeff Hoffman</a></strong> will be the best in Rockies history.</li>
<li><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/search/search.fcgi?pid=blackbu02,blackbu01&search=Bud+Black&utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Bud Black</a></strong> will, justly or not, be credited with both the Rockies' friskiness and their pitchers' improvement. He'll win Manager of the Year.</li>
<li><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hollagr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Greg Holland</a></strong> won't notch a single save this season.</li>
</ul><br />
<b>4. Arizona Diamondbacks (74–88)</b> <br />
<ul><li>The D'Backs will be better almost automatically, as Greinke, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/millesh01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Shelby Miller</a></strong>, and <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/polloaj01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">A.J. Pollock</a></strong> all revert to the mean.</li>
<li><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/r/rayro02.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Robbie Ray</a></strong> will take a huge step forward, shaving more than a run off his ERA and leading the league in strikeouts.</li>
</ul><br />
<b>5. San Diego Padres (68–94)</b> <br />
<ul><li>Even with the help of Petco Park, the Padres will have the worst rotation in baseball. </li>
<li>In just 30 innings pitched, <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/c/cappsca01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Carter Capps</a></strong> will have the highest WAR of any Padre pitcher.</li>
<li>The Padres will run out 61 different players in 2017, breaking the MLB record for most men deployed in a season.</li>
<li><strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/jankotr01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Travis Jankowski</a></strong> will pull a <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/k/kiermke01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&utm_source=direct&utm_medium=linker-www.baseball-reference.com" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">Kevin Kiermaier</a></strong>, amassing eye-popping value on the strength of defense alone. Oh, and he'll lead Major League Baseball in stolen bases.</li>
</ul>Unknownnoreply@blogger.com0