2017 Downballot Race Ratings for Louisiana and Virginia

The year following a presidential election is often the sleepiest time for elections (although certainly not for politics). Indeed, this November will feature only three of this blog's favorite races to analyze: downballot constitutional offices. As always, Baseballot will be the only site on the World Wide Web handicapping these under-the-radar yet multi-million-dollar campaigns. As my colleagues at Inside Elections do for congressional elections, I rate each state executive race on a Solid-Likely-Lean-Tilt scale, with the very closest of races earning the coveted label of "Toss-up."

According to my Big, Bad Chart of Constitutional Offices, the seats on the ballot this year include one lieutenant governor, one attorney general, and one treasurer. As it turns out, all of these elections will probably continue the status quo in the two states where they are taking place. Below are my initial ratings for the three seats; in the future, these ratings can be found on the "2017 Ratings" tab in the menu above, where they will be updated through Election Day.

Louisiana

• Treasurer: Solid Republican. After Treasurer John Kennedy was elected to the U.S. Senate in December 2016, a statewide special election was called to fill the remaining two years in his term. After six candidates squared off in the low-turnout October 14 jungle primary, Democrat Derrick Edwards (31%) and Republican John Schroder (24%) finished first and second to advance to the November 18 runoff. Democrats might have once had an outside shot at winning this seat: the party has overperformed in special elections thus far this year (probably due to the unpopularity of President Donald Trump), and the treasurer election just so happens to coincide with a competitive open mayoral race in dark blue New Orleans, meaning Democrats may constitute a disproportionate share of the electorate. However, it has quickly become apparent that Edwards isn't taking his campaign seriously. Despite an inspiring backstory (the wheelchair-bound Edwards was paralyzed by a brutal collision in a high-school football game; after doctors told him he would have to be cared for in an institution for the rest of his life, he instead got two graduate degrees and is now a practicing lawyer), Edwards has barely campaigned, missed campaign-finance deadlines, skipped debates and media events, and refused to talk about his plans until after he is elected. As a result, the Louisiana Democratic Party isn't even supporting his campaign, effectively ceding the race to the Republican Schroder, a former state representative. Schroder was the only candidate able to accrue significant funds from a tapped-out Louisiana donor class in the first phase of the campaign, raising more than all of his opponents combined ($436,954, compared to only $9,678 for Edwards). Now that he's the only Republican in the race, he'll use that dough to consolidate support and win easily.

Virginia

Sometimes, a state's downballot races are decided by turnout at the top of the ticket, and it looks like that will be the case in Virginia this year: so far, the commonwealth's two constitutional-officer elections have tracked extremely closely with its hard-fought gubernatorial race. That contest is rated Lean Democratic by Inside Elections, but if it ends up being more Democratic or Republican than predicted, the two elections below will too. (All three elections take place on Tuesday, November 7.)

• Lieutenant Governor: Lean Democratic. With a truly batty Republican primary behind us (which State Senator Jill Vogel might have won by spreading rumors that her opponent had an affair), the general election for lieutenant governor has been as uninteresting as the actual post, which is part-time and mostly consists of breaking ties in the State Senate. Vogel has struck an interesting balance between distancing herself from the rest of the Republican Party on issues like gay rights and also not showing any of Ed Gillespie's hesitance to embrace President Trump. Meanwhile, Democrat Justin Fairfax, who lost a close primary for attorney general in 2013, is attacking Vogel for her legal defense of various dark-money groups and a bill she sponsored to require women to have an invasive ultrasound before getting an abortion. Vogel also caused a mini-stir by saying Fairfax, who is black, couldn't "talk intelligently" on the issues. Ultimately, though, that gaffe is unlikely to make a splash in an ocean of daily Trump tweets, and, with each candidate having only about $300,000 in the bank, the LG race has been the quietest of Virginia's three campaigns on TV thus far. Polling shows Fairfax with a lead comparable to Democrat Ralph Northam's in the governor's race.

• Attorney General: Lean Democratic. Instead, all the downballot action in Old Dominion is here. The Republican Attorneys General Association has poured $2.75 million into the campaign coffers of Republican candidate John Adams—and yet he still trails Democrat Mark Herring in total fundraising by $2.8 million. In response, the Democratic Attorneys General Association has given Herring $1.7 million, helping to fund a major TV blitz by the incumbent AG. Adams's campaign has responded in kind, and he is further buoyed by the air support of the NRA's political action committee, the only outside group advertising in a downballot race so far this year. Adams and his Republican allies are accusing Herring of politicizing the attorney general's office (Herring has sued the Trump administration over immigration and tried to prevent out-of-state gun permits from being used in Virginia), but this light blue state might actually be on board with that: Herring leads polls by as wide a margin as any of Virginia's three Democrats on the 2017 ballot.

Final Calls for Decision 2015

Election Day 2015—yes, it's a thing—is next Tuesday, and you can expect to read more about it in this space and on my Twitter feed before the winners are announced. In addition to countless mayors, ballot measures, and state legislators, statewide constitutional officers are on the ballot in three states this year: Kentucky, Louisiana, and Mississippi (though Louisiana doesn't vote next Tuesday, because Louisiana is weird). This blog is the only place on the internet where you'll find race ratings for these oft-forgotten, oft-important elections. Now that we're in the home stretch, here are my final race ratings for attorney general, secretary of state, treasurer, and more. You can also access the current ratings at any time by clicking on the "2015 Ratings" tab above.

Kentucky

Most observers believe that Democrat Jack Conway has opened up a small but perceptible lead for governor. I'm not ready to jump on board that train. This is still an off-off-year election—which leads to low, unpredictable turnout—and Kentucky is still a conservative state. Since downballot races often fall in line behind top-of-the-ticket results, I'm being cautious with my ratings here.

• Attorney General: Leans Democratic (unchanged). The Republican Attorneys General Association (like the NRSC or RGA, but specifically for attorney-general races!) spent $2.2 million in Kentucky through October 2, mostly on a hard-hitting TV ad campaign tying Democrat Andy Beshear to the unpopular president. The onslaught appeared to budge the polls, as a September Bluegrass poll showed that Republican Whitney Westerfield had erased his deficit from the summer and moved into a tie. But then the RAGA announced it was pulling out of Kentucky, and Democratic outside forces fought back in a big way in October. The last three polls have made September's look like an outlier. Although the RAGA has since returned for a final Parthian shot, it may be too late for Westerfield.

• Secretary of State: Leans Democratic (unchanged). Alison Lundergan Grimes looks like the safest Democrat in Kentucky; she hasn't been targeted to nearly the same degree, but she has taken her own campaign seriously by airing ads on television.

• Treasurer: Tossup (unchanged). Republican Allison Ball has held a consistent lead in polls, but it's too small to mean anything. But she is now running television ads, which have correlated with other Kentucky downballot candidates grabbing polling leads. Hmmm...

• Auditor: Tossup (unchanged). This race has turned late toward Democrat Adam Edelen, who has spent $608,949 to Republican Mike Harmon's $27,643—but it's still close enough that Election Day turnout will have the final say.

• Commissioner of Agriculture: Leans Republican (unchanged). Despite leading, Republican Ryan Quarles has gone negative in a race with a surprising amount of fireworks. He's the only one spending in the race ($275,796 to $32,254).

Louisiana

Lots of downballot races came off the board in Louisiana on Saturday, when the state held its preliminary round of voting in its unusual jungle primary. As my original ratings predicted, Republican incumbents easily crested 50% and won reelection in the races for secretary of state, treasurer, commissioner of agriculture and forestry, and commissioner of insurance. That leaves two constitutional seats, plus the suddenly exciting governor's race, on the runoff ballot on November 21.

• Lieutenant Governor: Likely Republican (unchanged). In a mild surprise, Billy Nungesser defeated fellow Republican John Young for the right to face Democrat Kip Holden for lieutenant governor. The Nungesser/Young primary was nasty, but Nungesser is not nearly the scandal-ridden, widely despised candidate that David Vitter is, a fact that has made the governor's race competitive. Nungesser should easily pick up almost all of Young's support; their combined preliminary totals of 58.9% are more than enough to defeat Holden. However, Holden is the mayor-president of populous East Baton Rouge Parish, and he has a strong turnout operation in the African-American community. If Democrat John Bel Edwards performs particularly strongly in the governor's race, it's not totally insane to think that he could sweep Holden in with him.
  
• Attorney General: Solid Republican (unchanged). As expected, this runoff is between incumbent Republican Buddy Caldwell and former Republican Congressman Jeff Landry. That means, of course, that Republicans are guaranteed to hold this seat. It's worth noting, though, that Caldwell was a Democrat until recently and many Republicans still don't trust him. Landry, a strong conservative, is considered the "true" Republican in this race. I'd say this race leans Caldwell, who should get the support of Democrats looking for a relative ally in the AG's office.
  

Mississippi

There has been only one public poll in Mississippi since April, but the state's obvious partisan lean makes up for it. No ratings have shifted in the last month, and all but one of the seats is forecast to go easily Republican.

• Lieutenant Governor: Solid Republican (unchanged).
• Attorney General: Likely Democratic (unchanged). Incumbent Jim Hood—who is famously the last statewide Democrat in the Deep South—has faced the attacks of super PACs and now allegations of impropriety. The sole poll, a Mason-Dixon joint conducted last week, puts Hood's lead at a narrow 50% to 44%. However, the Hood campaign has pointed to the survey's oversampling of Republicans and touts internal polling showing him with a 57%-to-35% lead.
• Secretary of State: Solid Republican (unchanged).
• Treasurer: Solid Republican (unchanged).
• Auditor: Solid Republican (unchanged).
• Commissioner of Agriculture and Commerce: Solid Republican (unchanged).
• Commissioner of Insurance: Solid Republican (unchanged).

Downballot 2015 Race Ratings for Kentucky, Louisiana, and Mississippi

Democracy never sleeps—even when the voters do. This year may be an off year for elections, but the pundits are still tracking the three gubernatorial races that will take place in fall 2015: in Kentucky, Louisiana, and Mississippi. But those states are electing way more than just governors—that's where I come in.

As it was last year, this blog will be the only place on the internet to go for handicapping this cycle's constitutional-officer elections. Per Baseballot's handy quick-reference guide to downballot politics, the 2015 ballot will feature two (separately-elected-from-the-governor) lieutenant governors, three attorneys general, three secretaries of state, three treasurers, two auditors, three agriculture commissioners, and two insurance commissioners. A lot fewer of those will be actual competitive races, but to determine that we have to look at the ratings, now don't we?

Things don't look good for Democrats (though in fairness, these are three fairly conservative states). The party stands to lose the few seats it has, whereas Republicans' seats are relatively safe. There are no "solid Democratic" constitutional offices on the ballot this year, whereas I judge there are 11 that are safe for Republicans. It could be particularly bad for Democrats if things just go a little bit wrong in Kentucky. Here's the state-by-state breakdown:

Kentucky

All six races (counting the governor's race) in Kentucky are closely linked, and all six are closely contested. As we learned in 2014, the final result of the top-of-the-ticket race can carry all the downballot results along with it. As such, like KY-GOV, all Kentucky constitutional offices could go either way.

• Attorney General: Polls agree that Democrats are in the best shape in the attorney general's race, thanks mostly to the B-word: Beshear. Relative to the other Democrats on the statewide ballot, the popular governor's son Andy consistently leads by the most over, or trails by the least to, GOP State Senator Whitney Westerfield. You can also count on him winning the money battle.
• Secretary of State: What rhymes with Alison Lundergan Grimes? A rising star in her prime. Poll numbers on the climb. Republican opponent Steve Knipper can't raise a dime. But she may have high negatives from running for US Senate that one time.
• Treasurer: This is the epitome of a race that will break with the top of the ticket. Polls have indicated lots of undecideds between Democrat Rick Nelson and Republican Allison Ball.
• Auditor: Another fairly generic contest with high undecideds in polls—but, unlike treasurer, this race has an incumbent in Democrat Adam Edelen. The party has high hopes for Edelen, who looks poised to take on Rand Paul next year for Senate.
• Commissioner of Agriculture: For whatever reason, Republicans have historically done well for this office in not only Kentucky (winning the last three elections) but also nationally (holding 11 of the 12 elected agriculture commissionerships). In keeping with the trend, polls suggest candidate State Rep. Ryan Quarles has the strongest advantage of any statewide Republican contender over the inexperienced Democrat, Jean-Marie Lawson Spann.

Louisiana

Louisiana's jungle primary means that nominees for each party haven't been chosen yet—and, in fact, will never be chosen, as the top two finishers in the October 24 preliminary election advance to the November 21 runoff regardless of party affiliation. You'd think that not knowing the candidates would make these contests harder to forecast, but actually, in terms of party control (read: the inevitability of Republican wins), they're unlikely to make a difference.

• Lieutenant Governor: The African American, Democratic mayor of Baton Rouge, Kip Holden, starts with a strong base of support—but the three Republican candidates in the race combined are likely to pull a strong majority. Whether Republican Billy Nungesser or John Young makes the runoff with Holden, they'll probably be favored, but Holden is probably the strongest Democrat on the statewide ballot this year, and that ain't nothing.
• Attorney General: Incumbent Buddy Caldwell has only been a Republican for four years, switching parties during his first term as AG, and many "real" Republicans complain that he never stopped being a Democrat. That's earned him a strong, state-GOP-supported challenge from faithful conservative Jeff Landry (you might remember him as the former congressman ousted in 2012 in a redistricting-inspired primary). With only two minor Democrats in the running, it would be a shocker if the runoff isn't between Landry and Caldwell, who would become the de facto Democrat in November.
• Secretary of State: This one will be decided on October 24 one way or another. Democrat Chris Tyson is Republican incumbent Tom Schedler's only competition, and barring shockingly high Democratic turnout in the preliminary, Schedler will win his second full term.
• Treasurer: Republican John Neely Kennedy is in his fourth term as state treasurer, which should be enough to wrap up the 2015 election—but he also drew only one stray opponent, a fellow Republican, so this seat is a guaranteed hold for the party (and virtually guaranteed for Kennedy, probably a future US Senate candidate).
• Commissioner of Agriculture and Forestry: Republican Commissioner Mike Strain is the only heavyweight in this four-person field, although one of the candidates is an arborist named Jamie LaBranche, so that's cool.
• Commissioner of Insurance: Incumbent Republican James Donelon has already reached 50% in a pre-election poll against his main Democratic opponent, Charlotte McGehee, as well as a Republican auto-body businessman. He's safe.

Mississippi

• Lieutenant Governor: For LG, Democrats have nominated an Elvis impersonator who was a Republican as recently as Martin Luther King Day. Somehow, though, incumbent Republican Tate Reeves is even more popular than that guy.
• Attorney General: Incumbent AG Jim Hood is the last statewide Democrat standing in the Deep South—and he's not even that conservative, prosecuting KKK members and declining to join the suit against Obamacare. Can he hang on for a fourth term? Early indications are yes (a Mason-Dixon poll showed him leading Republican Mike Hurst 55% to 40%), but never underestimate the power of partisanship. With a conservative outside spender already airing ads in the race, it will at least be a competitive election.
• Secretary of State: The phenomenally named Delbert Hosemann is up for his third term, and he has a phenomenal 1,899 times as much cash on hand ($1,139,390 to $600) as Democrat Charles Graham. Barring something even more phenomenal, this will be an easy hold for the Republican.
• Treasurer: No Democrat filed to challenge first-term Republican Lynn Fitch.
• Auditor: The Pickerings are a mini-dynasty in Mississippi, and Stacey is the state auditor. His campaign has been under investigation for financial violations, but if he was going to lose, it would have been in the nasty primary. The Mississippi electorate and his breezy fundraising will ensure Pickering defeats Democrat Jocelyn Pepper Pritchett in November.
• Commissioner of Agriculture and Commerce: Commissioner Cindy Hyde-Smith—the first woman elected to statewide office in state history—is facing only a token challenge from a local Democratic activist.
• Commissioner of Insurance: Republican Mike Chaney will be elected to his third term without any opposition.